Year 2021, Volume 4 , Issue 1, Pages 8 - 16 2019-06-30

PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ

Ezgi GÜLER [1] , Burcu ÖZCAN [2]


The rapid increase of the human population and industrialization rate in the globalizing world poses an important risk in terms of air pollution. Air pollution is an especially important issue for public health. Making the accurate predictions for air pollutants is an important step to take necessary measures. In this study, forecasting analysis for the future period was made by using the monthly average concentration values of Particulate Matter (PM2.5) causing air pollution in the Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ province between January 2017 and April 2020. "Winters’ Method” and “Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Method” were used as the prediction approach. Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) model performance criteria were calculated based on the predictive values and actual values obtained. Whether the methods with structurally different algorithms differ in terms of prediction success was examined. Using the prediction methods, predictions for the next 20 months for PM2.5 values were obtained. The predictive values obtained from both methods were intended to create a preliminary study value for decision makers and strategists working on air pollution.
Air Pollution, Environmental Pollution, Forecasting, Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Method, Winters' Method
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Primary Language en
Subjects Environmental Sciences
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-8789-8244
Author: Ezgi GÜLER (Primary Author)
Institution: BILECIK SEYH EDEBALI UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0003-0820-4238
Author: Burcu ÖZCAN
Institution: Kocaeli University
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : June 30, 2019

Bibtex @research article { ijepem863967, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6128}, address = {ijepem@ijepem.com}, publisher = {Yasin Akın AYTURAN}, year = {2019}, volume = {4}, pages = {8 - 16}, doi = {}, title = {PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ}, key = {cite}, author = {Güler, Ezgi and Özcan, Burcu} }
APA Güler, E , Özcan, B . (2019). PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ . International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling , 4 (1) , 8-16 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijepem/issue/61136/863967
MLA Güler, E , Özcan, B . "PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ" . International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4 (2019 ): 8-16 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijepem/issue/61136/863967>
Chicago Güler, E , Özcan, B . "PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ". International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4 (2019 ): 8-16
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ AU - Ezgi Güler , Burcu Özcan Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - DO - T2 - International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 8 EP - 16 VL - 4 IS - 1 SN - -2618-6128 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ %A Ezgi Güler , Burcu Özcan %T PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ %D 2019 %J International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling %P -2618-6128 %V 4 %N 1 %R %U
ISNAD Güler, Ezgi , Özcan, Burcu . "PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ". International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4 / 1 (June 2019): 8-16 .
AMA Güler E , Özcan B . PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. ijepem. 2019; 4(1): 8-16.
Vancouver Güler E , Özcan B . PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling. 2019; 4(1): 8-16.
IEEE E. Güler and B. Özcan , "PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ", International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 8-16, Jun. 2019