THE LINKAGE BETWEEN OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY AND ECONOMIC POLICIES: THE ASYMMETRY EFFECT

Year 2017, ICMEB17 Özel Sayısı, 920 - 927, 01.12.2017

Mehmet Kenan Terzioğlu

Abstract

Ensuring sustainable development through low-stable inflation is among the fundamental objectives for policy makers. Many attempts are made to determine factors and national policies that affect growth in the long term, allow for higher per capita income and overall wealth levels. In this context, it is important to reveal the effect of output uncertainty on real sector and economic policy variables. In this paper, time-varying interaction between output uncertainity and selected variables has been investigated in the framework of multivariate exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models for Turkey to give an insight as a developing country that comes up against crises and structural changes in its economy

Keywords

Output Growth Uncertainty, Economic Performance, Monetary Policy, VAR-MVEGARCH Models

ÇIKTI BÜYÜKLÜĞÜ BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE EKONOMİ POLİTİKALARI ARASINDAKİ BAĞLANTI: ASİMETRİ ETKİSİ

Abstract

Düşük istikrarlı enflasyon ile sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı sağlamak politika yapıcıların temel amaçları arasında yer almaktadır. Uzun vadede büyümeyi etkileyen, genel refah seviyelerine ve daha yüksek kişi başına düşen gelire imkan sağlayan faktörlerin ve ulusal politikaların belirlenmesine çalışılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çıktı belirsizliğinin reel sektör ve ekonomi politikaları değişkenleri üzerinde etkisinin ortaya çıkarılması önemli olmaktadır. Bu makalede, ekonomisinde krizler ve yapısal değişimlere maruz kalan gelişmekte olan ülkeler statüsünde olan Türkiye’de çıktı belirsizliğiyle seçilmiş ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki zaman bağımlı etkileşimi çok değişkenli üssel genelleştirilmiş otoregresif koşullu değişen varyans modeli çerçevesinde incelenmektedir

Keywords

Çıktı Büyüklüğü Belirsizliği, Ekonomik Performans, Para Politikası, VAR-MVEGARCH Modeli

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