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BORSA İSTANBUL’DA HAFTANIN GÜNÜ ANOMALİSİ; GARCH MODEL ANALİZİ

Year 2017, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 521 - 534, 01.08.2017

Mehmet Akif Öncü Aslıhan Ünal Oğuz Demirel

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017331332
Cited By: 1

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the Day of the Week Effect DWE in Borsa Istanbul BIST-100 Index. For this purpose, a dataset of closing prices of the firms was gathered from January 03.2005 to November 06.2015. The data were transformed to return series bytaking logarithmic differences, and analyzed with GARCH 1,1 Model. According to the findings, although the coefficients representing the returns of Monday and Thursday are statistically significant, the returns of the trading days of the week are equal. Consequently, for the related period, DWE was not detected in BIST-100 Index

Keywords

Day of the Week Effect GARCH Model BIST-100 Index

References

  • Abdioğlu, Z., & Değirmenci, N. (2013). İstanbul menkul kıymetler borsasında mevsimsel anomaliler. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(3), 55-73.
  • Aksoy, M., & Ulusoy, V. (2015). Analysis of relative return behaviour of Borsa İstanbul reit and Borsa İstanbul 100 index. Journal for Economic Forecasting, (1), 107-128.
  • Angelovska, J. (2013). An econometric analysis of market anomaly - day of the week effect on a small emerging market. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(1), 314-322.
  • Ariel, R. A. (1987). A monthly effect in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(1), 161-174.
  • Atakan, T. (2008). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Haftanın Günü Etkisi ve Ocak ayı anomalilerinin Arch-Garch modelleri ile test edilmesi. Journal of the School of Business Administration, Istanbul University, 37(2), 98-110.
  • Aybar, C. B. (1993). Day of the week anomaly: A contrary evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange, İ. Ü. İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 157-168.
  • Aydoğan, K. (1994). Hisse senedi fiyatlandırılmasında aykırılıklar. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 9(100), 83-89.
  • Balaban, E. (1995). Day of the week effects: New evidence from emerging stock market. Applied Economics Letters, 2(5), 139-143.
  • Balint, C. (2012). How does the Size Effect Influence the Romanian Investors’ strategy?. Procedia Economics and Finance, 3, 722-727.
  • Banz, R. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 3-18.
  • Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
  • Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. The Journal of Finance, 32(3), 663-682.
  • Başdaş, Ü. (2011). The day of the week effect for Istanbul stock exchange: A stochastic dominance approach. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking. 1(4): 223-238.
  • Bildik, R. (2000). Hisse senedi piyasalarında dönemsellikler ve IMKB üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. İstanbul: İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Yayınları.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, (31): 307-327.
  • Brounen, D., & Ben-Hamo, Y. (2009). Calendar anomalies: The case of international property shares. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(2), 115-136.
  • Cadsby, C. B., & Ratner, M. (1992). Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 16(3), 497-509.
  • Cross, F. (1973). The behavior of stock prices on Fridays and Mondays. Financial Analysts Journal, 29(6), 67-69.
  • Cross, R., Grinfeld, M., Lamba, H., & Seaman, T. (2005). A threshold model of investor psychology. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 354, 463-478.
  • De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does stock market overreact?. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
  • De Bondt,W. F. M., Thaler, R. (1987), Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42, 557-581.
  • Demirer, R., & Karan, M. B. (2002). An investigation of the day-of-the-week effect on stock returns in Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 47-77.
  • Easton, P. D. (2004). PE ratios, PEG ratios, and estimating the implied expected rate of return on equity capital. The Accounting Review, 79(1), 73-95.
  • Ergül, N., Akel, V. & Dumanoğlu, S. (2008). İMKB’de günlük anomaliler. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2): 601-629.
  • Ergün, U., & Göksu, A. (2013). Applied Econometrics with Eviews Applications. Bosnia and Herzegovina: International Burch University.
  • Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
  • Fama, E. F. (1998). Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 283-306.
  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
  • Fields, M. J. (1934). Security prices and stock exchange holidays in relation to short selling. Journal of Business, 7(3), 328-338.
  • Finkle, V. (2017). Issue: Behavioral Economics. SAGE Business Researcher.
  • French, K. R. (1980). Stock returns and the weekend effect. Journal of Financial Economics, 8(1), 55-69.
  • Fuller, R. J. (1998). Behavioral finance and the sources of alpha. Journal of Pension Plan Investing, 2(3), 291-293.
  • Garavaglia, S., & Sharma, A. (1998). A smart guide to dummy variables: Four applications and a macro. In Proceedings of the Northeast SAS Users Group Conference (pp. 43).
  • Gibbons, M. R., & Hess, P. (1981). Day of the week effects and asset returns. Journal of Business, 579-596.
  • Hepşen, A. (2012). Calendar anomalies and Turkish Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(3), 230.
  • Karan, M.B. (1994). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Hafta Sonu Etkisi. Yaklaşım, 2, 99-109.
  • Karan, M. B. (2001). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası anomalileri. Ege Academic Review, 1(2), 83-94.
  • Karan, M. B. (2002). Istanbul Menkul Kıymet Borsası sektör endekslerinde haftanın günleri ve Ocak ayı etkilerinin test edilmesi. İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 17(90), 51-59.
  • Karan, M. B., & A. Uygur (2001) İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda haftanın günleri ve Ocak ayı etkilerinin firma büyüklüğü açısından değerlendirilmesi. A.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 56 (2), 103-116.
  • Keim, D. B. (1983). Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: Further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12(1), 13-32.
  • Kiymaz, H., & Berument, H. (2003). The Day of the Week Effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence. Review of Financial Economics, 12(4), 363-380.
  • Konak, Ö. G. F., & Kendirli, S. (2014). Küresel finansal kriz sürecinde BİST 100 endeksinde Haftanın Günleri Etkisinin analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 275-286.
  • Lakonishok, J., & Smidt, S. (1988). Are seasonal anomalies real? A ninety-year perspective. Review of Financial Studies, 1(4), 403-425.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
  • Marrett, G. J., & Worthington, A. C. (2007). An empirical note on the Holiday Effect in the Australian stock market, 1996–2006. Applied Economics Letters, 16(17), 1769-1772.
  • Mbululu, D. (2010). Day of the Week Effect: Evidence from nine sectors of the South African stock market. Master’s Thesis, South Africa, Rhodes University. Faculty of Commerce, Economics & Economic History.
  • Mbululu, D., & Chipeta, C. (2012). Day of the Week Effect: Evidence from the nine economic sectors of the JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 41(75), 55-65.
  • Meneu, V., & Pardo, A. (2004). Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(2), 231-246.
  • Metin, K., Muradoğlu, G. & Yazıcı, B. (1997). An analysis of the ‘Day of the Week Effect’ on the İstanbul Stock Exchange. The ISE Review, 1(4), 15-25.
  • Miralles Marcelo, J. L., & Miralles Quirós, M., M. (2002). An empirical analysis of the Weekday Effect on the Lisbon stock Market over trading and non-trading periods. Portuguese Review of Financial Markets, 3(2), 5-14.
  • Moosa, I. A. (2007). The vanishing January effect. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(1), 92-102.
  • Muradoğlu, G. & Oktay, T. (1993). Hisse senedi piyasasında zayıf etkinlik: Takvim anomalileri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11, 51-62.
  • Osborne, M. F. M. (1962). Periodic structure in the brownian motion of stock prices. Operations Research, 10(3), 345-379.
  • Özmen, T. (1997). Dünya borsalarında gözlemlenen anomaliler ve İMKB üzerine bir deneme. Ankara: Publication of the Capital Market Board of Turkey No: 61.
  • Rozeff, M., & Kinney, W. (1976). Capital market seasonality: The case of stock market returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 379-402.
  • Sakalauskas, V., & Kriksciuniene, D. (2007). The impact of daily trade volume on the Day of the Week Effect in emerging stock markets. Information Technology and Control, 36(1A), 152-158.
  • Schwert, G. W. (2003). Anomalies and market efficiency. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1, 939-974.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of economic perspectives, 17(1), 83-104.
  • Silva, P. M. (2010). Calendar ‘anomalies’ in the Portuguese stock market. Investment Analysts Journal, 39(71), 37-50.
  • Taner, B., & Akkaya, G. C. (2005). Yatırımcı Psikolojisi ve Davranışsal Finans Yaklaşımı. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (27), 47-54.
  • Timmermann, A., & Granger, C. W. J. (2004). Efficient Market Hypothesis and forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 15-27.
  • Tunçel, A. K. (2007). IMKB’de Haftanın Günü etkisi. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(13), 252-265.
  • Wachtel, S. B. (1942). Certain observations on seasonal movements in stock prices. Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, 184-193.
  • White, H. (1980). A Heterokedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48 (4), 817-838.
  • Ziemba, W. T. (1991). Japanese security market regularities: Monthly, turn-of-the-month and year, holiday and golden week effects. Japan and the World Economy, 3(2), 119-146.
  • Zikmund, W. G. (2000). Business Research Methods. 6. Edition, USA: The Dryden Press, Harcourt College Publishers.

THE DAY OF THE WEEK EFFECT IN BORSA ISTANBUL; A GARCH MODEL ANALYSIS

Year 2017, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 521 - 534, 01.08.2017

Mehmet Akif Öncü Aslıhan Ünal Oğuz Demirel

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017331332
Cited By: 1

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the Day of the Week Effect DWE in Borsa Istanbul BIST-100 Index. For this purpose, the dataset of closing prices of the firms was gathered from 03.01.2005 to 06.11.2015. The data transformed to return series by taking logarithmic differences, and analyzed with GARCH 1,1 Model. According to the findings, although the coefficients representing the returns of Monday and Thursday are statistically significant, the returns of the trading days of the week are equal. Consequently, for the related period, DWE did not detected in BIST-100 Index.

Keywords

Haftanın Günü Anomalisi GARCH Model BIST-100 Endeksi

References

  • Abdioğlu, Z., & Değirmenci, N. (2013). İstanbul menkul kıymetler borsasında mevsimsel anomaliler. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(3), 55-73.
  • Aksoy, M., & Ulusoy, V. (2015). Analysis of relative return behaviour of Borsa İstanbul reit and Borsa İstanbul 100 index. Journal for Economic Forecasting, (1), 107-128.
  • Angelovska, J. (2013). An econometric analysis of market anomaly - day of the week effect on a small emerging market. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(1), 314-322.
  • Ariel, R. A. (1987). A monthly effect in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(1), 161-174.
  • Atakan, T. (2008). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Haftanın Günü Etkisi ve Ocak ayı anomalilerinin Arch-Garch modelleri ile test edilmesi. Journal of the School of Business Administration, Istanbul University, 37(2), 98-110.
  • Aybar, C. B. (1993). Day of the week anomaly: A contrary evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange, İ. Ü. İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 157-168.
  • Aydoğan, K. (1994). Hisse senedi fiyatlandırılmasında aykırılıklar. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 9(100), 83-89.
  • Balaban, E. (1995). Day of the week effects: New evidence from emerging stock market. Applied Economics Letters, 2(5), 139-143.
  • Balint, C. (2012). How does the Size Effect Influence the Romanian Investors’ strategy?. Procedia Economics and Finance, 3, 722-727.
  • Banz, R. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 3-18.
  • Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
  • Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. The Journal of Finance, 32(3), 663-682.
  • Başdaş, Ü. (2011). The day of the week effect for Istanbul stock exchange: A stochastic dominance approach. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking. 1(4): 223-238.
  • Bildik, R. (2000). Hisse senedi piyasalarında dönemsellikler ve IMKB üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. İstanbul: İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Yayınları.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, (31): 307-327.
  • Brounen, D., & Ben-Hamo, Y. (2009). Calendar anomalies: The case of international property shares. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(2), 115-136.
  • Cadsby, C. B., & Ratner, M. (1992). Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 16(3), 497-509.
  • Cross, F. (1973). The behavior of stock prices on Fridays and Mondays. Financial Analysts Journal, 29(6), 67-69.
  • Cross, R., Grinfeld, M., Lamba, H., & Seaman, T. (2005). A threshold model of investor psychology. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 354, 463-478.
  • De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does stock market overreact?. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
  • De Bondt,W. F. M., Thaler, R. (1987), Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42, 557-581.
  • Demirer, R., & Karan, M. B. (2002). An investigation of the day-of-the-week effect on stock returns in Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 47-77.
  • Easton, P. D. (2004). PE ratios, PEG ratios, and estimating the implied expected rate of return on equity capital. The Accounting Review, 79(1), 73-95.
  • Ergül, N., Akel, V. & Dumanoğlu, S. (2008). İMKB’de günlük anomaliler. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2): 601-629.
  • Ergün, U., & Göksu, A. (2013). Applied Econometrics with Eviews Applications. Bosnia and Herzegovina: International Burch University.
  • Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
  • Fama, E. F. (1998). Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 283-306.
  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
  • Fields, M. J. (1934). Security prices and stock exchange holidays in relation to short selling. Journal of Business, 7(3), 328-338.
  • Finkle, V. (2017). Issue: Behavioral Economics. SAGE Business Researcher.
  • French, K. R. (1980). Stock returns and the weekend effect. Journal of Financial Economics, 8(1), 55-69.
  • Fuller, R. J. (1998). Behavioral finance and the sources of alpha. Journal of Pension Plan Investing, 2(3), 291-293.
  • Garavaglia, S., & Sharma, A. (1998). A smart guide to dummy variables: Four applications and a macro. In Proceedings of the Northeast SAS Users Group Conference (pp. 43).
  • Gibbons, M. R., & Hess, P. (1981). Day of the week effects and asset returns. Journal of Business, 579-596.
  • Hepşen, A. (2012). Calendar anomalies and Turkish Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(3), 230.
  • Karan, M.B. (1994). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Hafta Sonu Etkisi. Yaklaşım, 2, 99-109.
  • Karan, M. B. (2001). İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası anomalileri. Ege Academic Review, 1(2), 83-94.
  • Karan, M. B. (2002). Istanbul Menkul Kıymet Borsası sektör endekslerinde haftanın günleri ve Ocak ayı etkilerinin test edilmesi. İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 17(90), 51-59.
  • Karan, M. B., & A. Uygur (2001) İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda haftanın günleri ve Ocak ayı etkilerinin firma büyüklüğü açısından değerlendirilmesi. A.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 56 (2), 103-116.
  • Keim, D. B. (1983). Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: Further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12(1), 13-32.
  • Kiymaz, H., & Berument, H. (2003). The Day of the Week Effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence. Review of Financial Economics, 12(4), 363-380.
  • Konak, Ö. G. F., & Kendirli, S. (2014). Küresel finansal kriz sürecinde BİST 100 endeksinde Haftanın Günleri Etkisinin analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 275-286.
  • Lakonishok, J., & Smidt, S. (1988). Are seasonal anomalies real? A ninety-year perspective. Review of Financial Studies, 1(4), 403-425.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
  • Marrett, G. J., & Worthington, A. C. (2007). An empirical note on the Holiday Effect in the Australian stock market, 1996–2006. Applied Economics Letters, 16(17), 1769-1772.
  • Mbululu, D. (2010). Day of the Week Effect: Evidence from nine sectors of the South African stock market. Master’s Thesis, South Africa, Rhodes University. Faculty of Commerce, Economics & Economic History.
  • Mbululu, D., & Chipeta, C. (2012). Day of the Week Effect: Evidence from the nine economic sectors of the JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 41(75), 55-65.
  • Meneu, V., & Pardo, A. (2004). Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(2), 231-246.
  • Metin, K., Muradoğlu, G. & Yazıcı, B. (1997). An analysis of the ‘Day of the Week Effect’ on the İstanbul Stock Exchange. The ISE Review, 1(4), 15-25.
  • Miralles Marcelo, J. L., & Miralles Quirós, M., M. (2002). An empirical analysis of the Weekday Effect on the Lisbon stock Market over trading and non-trading periods. Portuguese Review of Financial Markets, 3(2), 5-14.
  • Moosa, I. A. (2007). The vanishing January effect. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(1), 92-102.
  • Muradoğlu, G. & Oktay, T. (1993). Hisse senedi piyasasında zayıf etkinlik: Takvim anomalileri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11, 51-62.
  • Osborne, M. F. M. (1962). Periodic structure in the brownian motion of stock prices. Operations Research, 10(3), 345-379.
  • Özmen, T. (1997). Dünya borsalarında gözlemlenen anomaliler ve İMKB üzerine bir deneme. Ankara: Publication of the Capital Market Board of Turkey No: 61.
  • Rozeff, M., & Kinney, W. (1976). Capital market seasonality: The case of stock market returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 379-402.
  • Sakalauskas, V., & Kriksciuniene, D. (2007). The impact of daily trade volume on the Day of the Week Effect in emerging stock markets. Information Technology and Control, 36(1A), 152-158.
  • Schwert, G. W. (2003). Anomalies and market efficiency. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1, 939-974.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of economic perspectives, 17(1), 83-104.
  • Silva, P. M. (2010). Calendar ‘anomalies’ in the Portuguese stock market. Investment Analysts Journal, 39(71), 37-50.
  • Taner, B., & Akkaya, G. C. (2005). Yatırımcı Psikolojisi ve Davranışsal Finans Yaklaşımı. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (27), 47-54.
  • Timmermann, A., & Granger, C. W. J. (2004). Efficient Market Hypothesis and forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 15-27.
  • Tunçel, A. K. (2007). IMKB’de Haftanın Günü etkisi. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(13), 252-265.
  • Wachtel, S. B. (1942). Certain observations on seasonal movements in stock prices. Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, 184-193.
  • White, H. (1980). A Heterokedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48 (4), 817-838.
  • Ziemba, W. T. (1991). Japanese security market regularities: Monthly, turn-of-the-month and year, holiday and golden week effects. Japan and the World Economy, 3(2), 119-146.
  • Zikmund, W. G. (2000). Business Research Methods. 6. Edition, USA: The Dryden Press, Harcourt College Publishers.
There are 66 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mehmet Akif Öncü This is me

Aslıhan Ünal This is me

Oğuz Demirel This is me

Publication Date August 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 13 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Öncü, M. A., Ünal, A., & Demirel, O. (2017). THE DAY OF THE WEEK EFFECT IN BORSA ISTANBUL; A GARCH MODEL ANALYSIS. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(3), 521-534. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017331332

Cited By

Haftanın Günü ve Ocak Ayı Anomalilerinin BIST 100 ile KAT 30 Endekslerinde Tespiti
Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.789742