TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON VE BANKA KREDİLERİNİN LEASING İŞLEMLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: NARDL MODELİ UYGULAMASI

Year 2021, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 28 - 46, 31.03.2021

Çiğdem Kurt Cihangir

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.814955

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı kaynak temininde banka kredilerinin ağırlıkta olduğu Türkiye ekonomisinde, enflasyon beklentisi ve banka kredilerindeki değişimin leasing işlemlerini öne çıkarıp çıkarmadığının belirlenmesidir. Ayrıca, leasing işlemleri ve banka kredileri arasındaki ilişkinin ikame edici ya da tamamlayıcı olma özelliği de araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçlarla, enflasyon beklentisi ve banka kredilerinin leasing işlem hacmi üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi doğrusal olmayan ARDL (NARDL) eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. 2013Ç1 – 2019Ç3 döneminin incelendiği çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar şunlardır: Birincisi, incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentisindeki düşüşün leasing işlem hacmi üzerindeki etkisi, enflasyon beklentisindeki artışa göre daha büyüktür; yani asimetrik etki vardır. İkincisi, banka kredileri ile leasing işlemleri arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Leasing, Enflasyon Beklentileri, Banka Kredileri, Asimetrik ARDL

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND BANK LOANS ON THE LEASING TRANSACTIONS IN TURKEY: AN APPLICATION OF THE NARDL MODEL

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine whether the change in inflation expectations and bank loans make leasing transactions more important in the Turkish economy, where bank loans are heavily weighted in funding. Furthermore, there are also investigated in the relationships substitutability and complementarity between leasing and bank loans. For these purposes, the asymmetric effect of inflation expectations and bank loans on leasing transaction volume are investigated by the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) cointegration method. The results of the study, which examined the period 2013Q1-2019Q3, are as follows: Firstly, in Turkey in the period under review, the impact of the decline in inflation expectations on leasing volume is greater than the increase in inflation expectations; so, there is an asymmetric effect.The secondly, the findings suggest that the relationships between leasing and bank loans are complements instead of substitutes.

Keywords

Leasing, Inflation Expectations, Bank Loans, Non-Linear ARDL

References

• Akel, V., Ergül, N., & Dumanoğlu, S. (2010). İMKB’de işlem gören finansal kiralama şirketlerinin 2005-2008 dönemi finansal performanslarının değerlendirilmesi. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, 28(1): 271-292.
• Akgüç, Ö. (1998). Finansal yönetim. Muhasebe Enstitüsü Yayın No: 56, Yenilenmiş 7. Baskı, Avcıol Matbaası, İstanbul.
• Ang, J., & Peterson, P. P. (1984). The leasing puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 39(4): 1055-1065. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03892.x
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ng, R. C. W. (2002). Longrun demand for money in Hong Kong: An application of the ARDL model. International Journal of Business and Economics, 1(2): 147–155.
• Beck, T., & Demirgüç-Kunt, A., (2006). Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint. Journal of Banking and Finance, 30 (11), 2931-2943.
• Ceyhan, İ. F., & Demirci, F. (2017). Multimoora yöntemiyle finansal performans ölçümü: Leasing şirketlerinde bir uygulama. Bartın Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 8(15): 277-296.
• Chigurupati, V. R., & Hegde, S. P. (2010). Capital market frictions, leasing and investment. Working Paper.
• Dhaoui, A., & Bacha, S. (2017). Investor emotional biases and trading volume’s asymmetric response: A nonlinear ARDL approach tested in S&P500 stock market. Cogent Economics, Finance, 5(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2016.1274225
• Deloitte (2015). Türkiye leasing sektörü sürdürülebilir büyüme yolunda adımlar, Nisan.
• Deloof, M., Lagaert, I., & Verschueren, I. (2007). Leases and debt: Complements or substitutes? Evidence from Belgian SMEs. Journal of Small Business Management, (45: 4): 491-500. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-627X.2007.00224.x
• Eisfeldt, A. L., & Rampini, A. A. (2009). Leasing, ability to repossess, and debt capacity. Review of Financial Studies, (22: 4): 1621-1657. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn026
• Er, B., Şahin, Y. E., & Mutlu, M. (2015). Girişimciler için alternatif finansman kaynakları: Mevcut durum ve öneriler. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 1(1): 31-54.
• Haiss, P., & Kichler, E. (2009). Leasing and economic growth - Evidence for Central and South Eastern Europe. Presentation for European Financial Markets Association, Europainstitut Working Paper No. 80. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1393162
• Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the Field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3): 187 – 243. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00044-7
• Granger, C. W. J., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. University of California San Diego. Economics Working Paper Series, 2(2002), 1–48.
• IMF. (2012). Global financial stability report, April.
• Katrakilidis, C., & Trachanas, E. (2012). What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1064–1069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.029
• Lasfer, M.A., & Levis, M., (1998). The determinants of the leasing decision of small and large companies. European Financial Management, 4 (2), 159-184.
• Lim, S. C., Mann, S. C., & Mihov, V. T. (2017). Do operating leases expand credit capacity? Evidence from borrowing costs and credit ratings. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 42: 100-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.10.015
• Lin, J. R., Wang, C. J., Chou, D.W., & Chueh, F. C. (2013). Financial Constraint and The Choice between Leasing and Debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 27: 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2012.09.012
• Modigliani, F., & Miller, M.H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 48(13), 261-297. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1809766?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents.
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus in China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37, 1979 – 1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
• Panopoulou, E., & Pittis, N. (2004). A Comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error. The Econometrics Journal, 7(2), 585–617. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2004.00145.x
• Pazarbaşıoğlu, C. (1997). A credit crunch? Finland in the aftermath of the banking crisis. IMF Working Paper, No: 44(3), 315.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive econometric analysis. Windows version. Oxford University Press.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326 https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
• Rampini, A. A., & Viswanathan, S. (2011). Collateral and capital structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(2): 466-492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.03.002
• Raza, N., Shahzad, S. J. H., Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy, 49, 290–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.06.011
• Sharpe, S. A., & Nguyen H. H. (1995). Capital market imperfections and the incentive to lease. Journal of Financial Economics, 39(2–3), 271-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(95)00830-8
• Slotty, C. (2009). Financial constraints and the decision to lease-evidence from German SME. Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting, No. 205.
• Tunç, B. (2012). Kredi hacmini etkileyen faktörler: Banka kredileri eğilim anketi analizi. TCMB Uzmanlık Tezi, Ankara
• Turan-Kurtaran, A. (2016). Finansal kiralamanın küçük ve orta ölçekli imalat işletmelerinin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 17: 1-24.
• Yalçıner, K., Tanrıöven, C., Bal, H., Aksoy, E.E., & Kurt, Ç. (2011). Finansal teknikler ve türev araçlar, Detay Yayıncılık.
• Yan, A. (2006). Leasing and debt financing: Substitutes or complements?. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41: 709-731. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000002593
• Yıldırım, S., & Albez, A. (2006). KOBİ’lerde finansal kiralamadan (Leasing) yararlanma düzeyi: Bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2): 361-376.
• Zhang, Y., Zhai, L., & Sun, H. ( 2018). Does the level of financial leasing matter in the impact of bank lending on economic growth: Evidence from the global market (2006–2016). Finance Research Letters, 30, 352-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.10.020
• Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business-Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
• White Clark Group, (2019). Global leasing report https://www.fkb.org.tr/ (Erişim Tarihi: 12.02.2019)
• http://www.tcmb.gov.tr https://www.bddk.org.tr/ https://www.fkb.org.tr/ https://www.tbb.org.tr/tr