İSTİKRAR BEŞGENİ MODELİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNE MAKRO DÜZEYDE UYGULAMA

Year 2024, Volume: 20 Issue: ICMEB'24 Özel Sayı, 1 - 21, 30.10.2024

Huriye Gonca Diler

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1486241

Abstract

Devletlerin istikrarsızlık sorunu, ülkelerin ekonomilerini etkilemektedir. Planlı ekonomiden piyasa ekonomisine geçen her ekonominin temel amacı, ekonomik gerilemenin durdurulması, iç ve dış dengesizliklerin giderilmesi ve sürekli bir ekonomik büyümenin sağlanmasıdır. Bunun için farklı düzeylerde istikrarı yönetmeyi mümkün kılacak etkili bir araca ihtiyaç vardır. Ekonomileri istikrara kavuşturmak için ortak ve temel farklılıkları vurgulamak amacıyla, bir dönemden diğerine geçişte makroekonomik politikalar hakkında bir görüş elde etmeyi sağlayan makroekonomik istikrar beşgeni kavramı kullanılmaktadır. Bu kavram, kamu politikalarının etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesi konusunda yeni bir anlayış getirmiştir. Düşük-orta gelirli Türkiye ekonomisinde 2001 yılında yaşanan kriz için uygulanan politikaların ve sonrasındaki yirmi yılın istikrar durumunu analiz edebilmek amacıyla 2002-2023 döneminde makroekonomik istikrar beşgeninin (MSP) uygulanabilirliği araştırılmıştır. Bu kıyaslama aracı, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik, bütçe açığı (GSYH’nin %’si), cari açık (GSYH’nin %’si) gibi önemli makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki karşılıklı bağımlılığı göstermektedir. Tüm göstergeler, özel bir dereceli ölçek üzerinde temsil edilmektedir. Bu kavramı dünya ekonomilerine uygulayan çalışmalar olmasına karşın, Türkiye ekonomisi için bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu yönüyle çalışma literatürde önemli bir boşluğu doldurmayı hedeflemektedir. Bulgular, kamu politikalarının geliştirilmesine temel teşkil etmektedir. MSP modelinin ana bulguları, modelin Türkiye ekonomisinin analizi için uygulanabilir olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır. Bu model, özellikle işsizlik ve enflasyon süreci düzenlemeleri alanında kamu politikalarının etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesinde bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Keywords

İstikrar, Makroekonomik İstikrar Beşgeni, Türkiye Ekonomisi, İndeks Metodolojisi

THE STABILITY PENTAGON MODEL: MACRO-LEVEL APPLICATION TO THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

The problem of instability of states affects the economies of countries. The main objective of any economy moving from a planned economy to a market economy is to halt economic decline, eliminate internal and external imbalances and ensure sustained economic growth. This requires an effective instrument that makes it possible to manage stability at different levels. In order to highlight common and fundamental differences in order to stabilise economies, the concept of the pentagon of macroeconomic stability is used, which allows to obtain a view on macroeconomic policies in the transition from one period to another. This concept has introduced a new understanding of the evaluation of the effectiveness of public policies. The applicability of the macroeconomic stability pentagon (MSP) has been investigated for the period 2002-2023 in order to analyse the stability of the policies implemented for the crisis in 2001 and the following two decades in the low-middle income Turkish economy. This benchmarking tool shows the interdependence between key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and economic growth, unemployment, budget deficit (% of GDP), current account deficit (% of GDP). All indicators are represented on a specialised graduated scale. Although there are studies applying this concept to world economies, there is no study for the Turkish economy. In this respect, this study aims to fill an important gap in the literature. The findings provide a basis for the development of public policies. The main findings of the MSP model prove that the model is applicable for the analysis of the Turkish economy. This model can be used as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of public policies, especially in the field of unemployment and inflation process regulation.

Keywords

Stabilization, Macroeconomic Stabilization Pentagon, Turkish Economy, Index Methodology

References

• Ahangari, A., Arman, A., & Saki, A. (2014). The estimation of Iran’s macroeconomics instability index. Management Science Letters, 4(5), 871-882.
• Assane, D., & Grammy, A. (2003). Institutional framework and economic development: international evidence. Applied Economics, 35(17), 1811-1817. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684032000152862
• Awujola, A., Iyakwari, A. D. B., & Bot, R. E. (2020). Examination of the relationship between oil price shock and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. SocioEconomic Challenges, 4(1), 102-110.
• Bjørnskov, C. (2012). How does social Trust affect economic growth? Southern Economic Journal, 78(4), 1346-1368.
• Bleaney, M. F. (1996). Macroeconomic stability, investment and growth in developing countries. Journal of development economics, 48(2), 461-477.
• Butkiewicz, J. L., & Yanikkaya, H. (2006). Institutional quality and economic growth: Maintenance of the rule of law or democratic institutions, or both? Economic Modelling, 23(4), 648-66.
• https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.03.004. Cariolle, J. (2012). Measuring macroeconomic volatility: Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005. FERDI Working paper, 14, 1-50.
• Chen, Y., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., & Kwilinski, A. (2023). Green development of the country: Role of macroeconomic stability. Energy & Environment, 1-23. DOI: 10.1177/0958305X231151679
• Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. The quarterly journal of economics, 115(1), 147-180.
• Dearmon, J., & Grier, K. (2009). Trust and development. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71(2), 210-220. Disli, M., Ng, A., & Askari, H. (2016). Culture, income, and CO2 emission. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 62, 418–428.
• Dobrzański, P. & Bobowski, S. (2020). The macroeconomic stabilisation pentagon as an ındicator of the competitiveness of the country. A new approach to comparative analysis, Paper presented at the 35th IBIMA Conference, Seville, Spain.
• Dornbusch, R., & De Pablo, J. C. (1989). Debt and macroeconomic instability in Argentina. In developing country debt and the world economy. US: University of Chicago Press.
• Dźwigoł, H. (2021). The Uncertainty Factor in the Market Economic System: The Microeconomic Aspect of Sustainable Development. Virtual Economics, 4(1), 98-117. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2021.04.01(5)
• Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512.
• Fodjou, W., Noula, A. G., & Mevamba-Chekem, J. (2021). Economic resilience in sub-saharan Africa: An analysis of the determinants. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 6(6), 796-805.
• Gorodnichenko, Y., & Roland, G. (2017). Culture, institutions, and the wealth of nations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(3), 402-416. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00599
• Grosso, J. L., & Smith, T. L. (2012). Poverty and unemployment: A cultural approach. Thunderbird International Business Review, 54(1), 79-90.
• Hopwood, B., Mellor, M., & O’Brien, G. (2005). Sustainable development: Mapping different approaches. Sustainable Development, 13(1), 38-52.
• Hurduzeu, G., & Lazar, M. I. (2015). An assessment of economic stability under the new European economic governance. Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, 3(2), 301-315.
• Ionita, R. O. (2015). The evolution of the macroeconomic stabilization pentagon in Romania, Czech republic and Hungary. The Annals of the University of Oradea, 25(1), 733-741.
• Iqbal, N., & Nawaz, S. (2010). Fiscal decentralization and macroeconomic stability: Theory and evidence from Pakistan. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27184/ sayfasından erişilmiştir. Erişim Tarihi: 30.04.2024. İsmihan, M., Metin-Özcan, K., & Tansel, A. (2005). The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963–1999. Applied Economics, 37(2), 239-251.
• Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Grishnova, O., & Dzwigol, H. (2020). Social safety of society for developing countries to meet sustainable development standards: Indicators, level, strategic benchmarks (with calculations based on the case study of Ukraine). Sustainability, 12(21), 1-21. doi:10.3390/su12218953
• Knack, S., & Zak, P. J. (2003). Building trust: public policy, interpersonal Trust, and economic development. Supreme Court Economic Review, 10, 91-107.
• Kolodko, G. W. (1993). Stabilization, recession and growth in a postsocialist economy. Economic Journal on Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, 3(1), 3-38.
• Kotliński, K. (2023). The macroeconomic stability of United Kingdom after Brexit. Economics and Law, 22(3), 599-611.
• Kwon, O. Y. (2019). Social trust and economic development: The case of South Korea. UK: Edward Elgar.
• Levchenko, V., Boyko, A., Savchenko, T., Bozhenko, V., Humenna, Yu. & Pilin, R. (2019). State Regulation of the Economic Security by Applying the Innovative Approach to its Assessment. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 364-372. http://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2019.4-28
• Lyeonov, S. V., Vasylieva, T. A., & Lyulyov, O. V. (2018). Macroeconomic stability evaluation in countries of lower-middle income economies. Scientific Bulletin of National Mining University, 1, 138-146.
• Lyulyov, O. (2018a). Macroeconomic stability of the national economy: A monograph. Sumy: University Book.
• Lyulyov, O. (2018b). Macroeconomic stability: EU experience and situation assessment for Ukraine.
• O. Prokopenko, V. Omelyanenko, Y. Ossik. (Ed.) National Security & Innovation Activities: Methodology, Policy and Practice: Monograph (pp. 36–46). Bielsko-Biala: University of Bielsko-Biala Lyulyov,
• O., Chortok, Y., Pimonenko, T., &Borovik, O. (2015). Ecological and Economic Evaluation of Transport System Functioning According To the Territory Sustainable Development. International Journal of Ecology & Development, 30(3), 1-10. Lyulyov,
• O., Chygryn, O., and Pimonenko, T. (2018, November). National Brand as a Marketing Determinant of Macroeconomic Stability. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 3, 142-152.
• http://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.3-12 Lyulyov, O.V., Pimonenko, T.V., Chen, Y., & Kwilinski, A. (2023). Macroeconomic stability of the country: the nexus of institutional and behavioural dimensions. Economics and Sociology, 16(4), 264-288.
• Lyulyov, O.V., Pimonenko, T. V., Kwilinski, A., Us, Y. O., Arefieva, O., Akimov, O., & Pudryk, D. (2020). Government Policy on Macroeconomic Stability: Case for Low-and Middle-Income Economies. Paper presented at the IBIMA Conference, Granada, Spain
• Malina, A., & Mierzwa, D. (2014). The Impact of the Global Crisis on the Macroeconomic Stability of the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Germany. ECB Occasional Paper, 114, 13-24.
• Martínez, V., & Sanchez-Robles, R.B. (2012). Macroeconomic stability and growth in Eastern Europe. In G. Erreygers & W. Meeusen (Eds.). Macroeconomics and beyond: essays in honour of Wim Meeusen (pp. 131-144). Garant: Antwerp
• Martinez-Vazquez, J., & McNab, R. M. (2006). Fiscal decentralization, macrostability, and growth. Revista de Economia Publica 179, 25–49.
• Mauk, M. (2022). Stable support for democracy in East and Southeast Asia? Examining citizens’ trust in democratic institutions. East Asia, 39(3), 239-257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-021-09381-y.
• Michau, J. B. (2013). Unemployment insurance and cultural transmission: theory and application to European unemployment. Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(6), 1320-1347.
• Minkov, M., & Blagoev, V. (2009). Cultural values predict subsequent economic growth? International Journal of Cross Cultural Management, 9(1), 5-24
• Misztal, A., Kowalska, M., Fajczak-Kowalska, A., & Strunecky, O. (2021). Energy efficiency and decarbonization in the context of macroeconomic stabilization. Energies, 14(16), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14165197
• Montiel, P., & Servén L. (2006). Macroeconomic stability in developing countries: how much is enough? World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 151-178. doi: 10.1093/wbro/lkl005.
• Naseer, M. M., Guo, Y., & Zhu, X. (2022). Stock performance, sector’s nature and macroeconomic environment. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 6(1), 2521-1250.
• Ocampo, J. A. (2008). The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance. N. Serra & J. E. Stiglitz (Eds.) A broad view of macroeconomic stability. (pp. 63-94). New York: DESA
• Orphanides, A. (2004). Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability, and inflation: A view from the trenches. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(2), 151-175.
• Pedraza, J.A.P. (2012). The role of macroeconomic instability on economic growth rate: the case of Сolombia, 1950-2009. http://teacongress.org/papers2012/PEDRAZA.pdf sayfasından erişilmiştir. Erişim Tarihi: 24.04.2024.
• Pieloch-Babiarz, A., Misztal, A., & Kowalska, M. (2021). An impact of macroeconomic stabilization on the sustainable development of manufacturing enterprises: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(6), 8669-8698.
• Razić, S., & Kasumović, M. (2019). Macroeconomic stability of new member states of the European Union: Fifth enlargement. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 26(618), 23–35.
• Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration and economic development. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w9305 Accessed 24.01.2024
• Rojek, K. (2023). Factors affecting the international competitiveness of polish economy system in 2004-2019. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, 33(2), 483-502.
• Roszko-Wójtowicz, E., & Grzelak, M. M. (2020). Macroeconomic stability and the level of competitiveness in EU member states: a comparative dynamic approach. Oeconomia Copernicana, 11(4), 657-688.
• Roth, F. (2022). Does Too Much Trust Hamper Economic Growth?. In Intangible Capital and Growth: Essays on Labor Productivity, Monetary Economics, and Political Economy,1 (pp. 141-165). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
• Samoliuk, N., Bilan, Y., Mishchuk, H., & Mishchuk, V. (2022). Employer brand: key values influencing the intention to join a company. Management & Marketing, 17(1), 61-72.
• Sancak, C., & Jaramillo, L. (2007). Growth in the Dominican Republic and Haiti: Why has the grass been greener on one side of Hispaniola. IMF Working Papers, 7(63), 1-33.
• Santos, A. D., Ribeiro, S., Castela, G., & da Silva N. T. (2017). The dynamics between economic growth and living standards in EU countries: a STATICO approach for the period 2006–2014. Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 35(3), 629-652.
• Shpak, N., Kulyniak, I., Gvozd, M., Pyrog, O., & Sroka, W. (2021). Shadow economy and its impact on the public administration: Aspects of financial and economic security of the country's industry. Administratie Si Management Public, 36, 81-101. http://doi:10.24818/AMP/2021.36-05 Sorsa, P. (2006). Macroeconomic challenges with EU accession in South-eastern Europe: an overview. IMF Working Paper, 40, 1–27.
• Tabellini, G. (2010). Culture and institutions: Economic development in the regions of Europe? Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(4), 677–716.
• Tiutiunyk, I., Zolkover, A., Maslov, V., Vynnychenko, N., Samedova, M., Beshley, Y., & Kovalenko, O. (2020). Indices of innovation activity as components of macroeconomic stability assessment: How does the shadowing of investment flows affect? Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 26-40. http://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2020.4-02. Tkachenko, V., Kwilinski, A., Korystin, O., Svyrydiuk, N., & Tkachenko, I. (2019). Assessment of information technologies influence on the financial security of economy. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 8(3), 375-385. http://doi:10.9770/jssi.2019.8.3(7)
• T.C. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı Muhasebat Genel Müdürlüğü, (2024). Veri seti. https://muhasebat.hmb.gov.tr/ sayfasından erişilmiştir. Erişim Tarihi: 13.02.2024
• Vijayaraghavan, M., & Ward, W. A. (2001). Institutions and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a cross-national analysis. https://www.clemson.edu/cafls/departments/aes/centers/cit/ sayfasından erişilmiştir Erişim Tarihi: 31.03.2024.
• Yuan, Z., & Wang, L. (2019). Trust and Economic Development: A Literature Review. Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, 35(2), 1-14.
• Vasylieva, T., Lyeonov, S., Lyuluov, O., & Kyrychenko, K. (2018). Macroeconomic stability and its impact on the economic growth of the country. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(1), 159–170. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2018.14-1.12.
• Wang, Z. (2005). Before the emergence of critical citizens: Economic development and political Trust in China. International Review of Sociology, 15(1), 155-171.
• Wanta, W. (2018). Media Influence on the Public's Perceptions of Countries: Agenda-Setting and International News. In Bridging Disciplinary Perspectives of Country Image Reputation, Brand, and Identity (pp. 252-263). London: Routledge.
• World Bank, (2024). Data set. https://data.worldbank.org/ sayfasından erişilmiştir. Erişim Tarihi: 13.02.2024
• Zaman, C., & Drcelic, B. (2009). Macro-stabilisation issues in the Serbian economy: Methodological evaluation. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1521660 sayfasından erişilmiştir. Erişim Tarihi: 24.04.2024
• Zolkover, A. O., & Georgiev, M. (2020). Shadow investment activity as a factor of macroeconomic instability. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 4(4), 83-90.
• Żuchowska, D. (2013). Assessment of the Central and Eastern Europe Economies in the Years 2007- 2010 Based on the Model of the Macroeconomic Stabilization Pentagon. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 8(4), 49-64.