Renewable Energy Potential for Sustainable Long-Term Electricity Energy Planning: A Bottom-up Model Application

Year 2015, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 919 - 925, 01.09.2015

Yusak Tanoto Ekadewi Handoyo

Abstract

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of renewable energy potential for long-term electricity energy planning. In order to implement a sustainable supply-demand framework, renewable energy resources consist of geothermal and solar energy based power plants are included in a bottom-up accounting based model along with energy efficient and energy conservation approach in the demand side. The developed model is applied to a region comprises 5 cities or regencies in the eastern part of East Java province, Indonesia. The main purpose of the study is to compare several supply-demand scenarios with respect to the resources, costs, and environmental impacts over the study period. According to the analyses, the 2025 total electricity consumption of the observed area would be 6,873.8 GWh for the case of Business as Usual scenario, or increase by 203% compared to year 2014 as the baseline. Meanwhile, applying energy efficiency and conservation scenario, the growth would increase in a lower pace with 175% compared to the baseline or 6,222 GWh. Given the shortage of supply, more electricity should be imported from the interconnected system if the existing coal fired power plant is preserved through out the simulation period compared to planning involving geothermal and solar energy based power plants. In this study, geothermal and photovoltaic power plant would have their contribution toward the supply around 15.49% and 4.06%, respectively, from early year of their appearence until the last simulation year.

Keywords

Renewable energy; sustainable; geothermal; electricity planning.

References

• B. Johansson, “Security Aspects of Future Renewable Energy Systems-A Short Overview”, Energy, vol. 61, pp. 598-605, November 2013.
• Center for Data and Information Technology on Energy and Mineral Resources, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indoneisa, Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics of Indonesia 2014, Jakarta: Pusdatin ESDM, 2014.
• G.P. Giatrakos, T.D. Tsoutsos, N. Zografakis, “Sustainable power planning for the island of Crete”, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 1222-1238, April 2009.
• M. McPerson, B. Karney, “Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama’s electricity sector”, Energy Policy, Vol. 68, pp. 146-157, May 2014.
• Y. Huang, Y.J. Bor, C.Y. Peng, “The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application”, Energy Policy, Vol 39, No. 11, pp 6790- 6803, November 2011.
• A. Sadri, M.M. Ardehali, K. Amirnekooei, “General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN”, Energy, Vol. 77, No. 1, pp. 831-843, December 2014.
• K. Amirnekooei, M.M. Ardehali, A. Sadri, “Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy- environment plan”, Energy, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 374- 385, October 2012.
• A. Kumar, S.C. Bhattacharya, H.L. Pham, “Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model”, Energy, Vol. 28, No. 7, pp. 627-654, June 2003.
• http://archipelagofastfact.wordpress.com/2012/07/23/ea st-java-province/
• PT. PLN (Persero), East Java Distribution Statistic 2014, Surabaya: PLN, 2014.
• PT. PLN (Persero), East Java Distribution Statistic 2013, Surabaya, PLN, 2013.
• Stockholm Environment Institute, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System, User Guide. Boston: SEI, 2006.
• X. Yan, R.J. Crookes, “Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China’s road transport sector”, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 658-668, February 2009.
• J. Li, “Towards a low carbon future in China’s building sector-a review energy and climate models forecast”, Energy Policy, Vol 36, N0. 5, pp. 1736-1747, May 2008.
• N.B. Park, S.J. Yun, E.C. Jeon, “An analysis of long- term scenarios for transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector”, Energy Policy, Vol. 52, pp. 288-296, January 2013.
• http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=4 5.
• PT. Pembangkitan Jawa-Bali, Corporate Statistic 2008- 2012, Surabaya: Indonesia, 2012. [18] National Nuclear Energy Comprehensive Assessment of Different Energy Sources for Electricity Generation in Indonesia (CADES) Phase I, Jakarta: Indonesia, 2006. (BATAN),
• Sanyal, S. K., “Cost of geothermal Power and Factors that Affect It”, World Geothermal Congress, Turkey, pp. 1-10, 24-29 April 2005.
• PT. PLN (Persero), “2014 PLN Statistical Report. Jakarta: Indonesia, 2014.