<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.4 20241031//EN"
        "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.4/JATS-journalpublishing1-4.dtd">
<article  article-type="research-article"        dtd-version="1.4">
            <front>

                <journal-meta>
                                                                <journal-id>ijsi</journal-id>
            <journal-title-group>
                                                                                    <journal-title>International Journal of Social Inquiry</journal-title>
            </journal-title-group>
                            <issn pub-type="ppub">1307-8364</issn>
                                        <issn pub-type="epub">1307-9999</issn>
                                                                                            <publisher>
                    <publisher-name>Bursa Uludağ University</publisher-name>
                </publisher>
                    </journal-meta>
                <article-meta>
                                        <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.37093/ijsi.1284735</article-id>
                                                                <article-categories>
                                            <subj-group  xml:lang="en">
                                                            <subject>Cyclical Fluctuations</subject>
                                                            <subject>Monetary Policy</subject>
                                                            <subject>Macroeconomics (Other)</subject>
                                                    </subj-group>
                                            <subj-group  xml:lang="tr">
                                                            <subject>Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları</subject>
                                                            <subject>Para Politikası</subject>
                                                            <subject>Makro İktisat (Diğer)</subject>
                                                    </subj-group>
                                    </article-categories>
                                                                                                                                                        <title-group>
                                                                                                                                                            <article-title>An Investigation of the Factors Influencing External Debt in Emerging Market Economies</article-title>
                                                                                                    </title-group>
            
                                                    <contrib-group content-type="authors">
                                                                        <contrib contrib-type="author">
                                                                    <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">
                                        https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6201-5353</contrib-id>
                                                                <name>
                                    <surname>İlhan</surname>
                                    <given-names>Ali</given-names>
                                </name>
                                                                    <aff>TEKİRDAĞ NAMIK KEMAL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, İKTİSAT BÖLÜMÜ</aff>
                                                            </contrib>
                                                                                </contrib-group>
                        
                                        <pub-date pub-type="pub" iso-8601-date="20231231">
                    <day>12</day>
                    <month>31</month>
                    <year>2023</year>
                </pub-date>
                                        <volume>16</volume>
                                        <issue>2</issue>
                                        <fpage>497</fpage>
                                        <lpage>509</lpage>
                        
                        <history>
                                    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="20230417">
                        <day>04</day>
                        <month>17</month>
                        <year>2023</year>
                    </date>
                                                    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="20230731">
                        <day>07</day>
                        <month>31</month>
                        <year>2023</year>
                    </date>
                            </history>
                                        <permissions>
                    <copyright-statement>Copyright © 2008, International Journal of Social Inquiry</copyright-statement>
                    <copyright-year>2008</copyright-year>
                    <copyright-holder>International Journal of Social Inquiry</copyright-holder>
                </permissions>
            
                                                                                                                        <abstract><p>External financing support plays a vital role in the economic development of emerging market economies (EMEs). However, the ineffective using of external resources can increase the debt burden and exacerbate macroeconomic instability and financial vulnerabilities. After the global financial crisis, growing debt accumulation with the debt-favored environment has raised discussions about whether external financing is a blessing or a curse for macro-financial stability. This paper explores the drivers of external debt in EMEs from 2005Q1 to 2020Q1. To this end, the effects of economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic credit on external debt to gross domestic product are analyzed with panel cointegration and panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator for eight EMEs. The panel cointegration findings show that a long-run relationship exists between the series. The panel AMG findings indicate that economic growth declines external debt. A rise in trade openness, inflation, and domestic credit accumulate foreign debt in the long-run, whereas the impact of the credit is barely statistically significant. Although the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant for the panel, it is statistically significant in the four countries. Country-specific results are largely consistent with the panel findings, but some differences exist across countries.</p></abstract>
                                                            
            
                                                                                        <kwd-group>
                                                    <kwd>Emerging market economies</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  external debt</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  macroeconomic variables</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  panel cointegration</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  panel augmented mean group</kwd>
                                            </kwd-group>
                            
                                                                                                                                                <funding-group specific-use="FundRef">
                    <award-group>
                                                    <funding-source>
                                <named-content content-type="funder_name">No financial support was received from any person or institution for the study.</named-content>
                            </funding-source>
                                                                    </award-group>
                </funding-group>
                                </article-meta>
    </front>
    <back>
                            <ref-list>
                                    <ref id="ref1">
                        <label>1</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Abdullahi, M. M., Bakar, N. A. B. A., &amp; Hassan, S. B. (2015). Determining the macroeconomic factors of external debt accumulation in Nigeria: An ARDL bound test approach, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 211, 745–752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.098</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref2">
                        <label>2</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Adamu, I. M. (2019). Re-visiting the drivers for increasing external debt. Journal of Contemporary Issues and Thought, 9(2019), 40–53. https://doi.org/10.37134/jcit.vol9.5.2019</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref3">
                        <label>3</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Al-Fawwaz, T. M. (2016). Determinants of external debt in Jordan: An empirical study (1990–2014). International Business Research, 9(7), 116–123. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v9n7p116</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref4">
                        <label>4</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Awan, R. U., Anjum, A., &amp; Rahim, S. (2015). An econometric analysis of determinants of external debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management &amp; Trade, 5(4), 382–391. https://doi.org/10.9734/BJEMT/2015/8837</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref5">
                        <label>5</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Beyene, S. D., &amp; Kotosz, B. (2020). Macroeconomic determinants of external indebtedness of Ethiopia: ARDL approach to cointegration. Society and Economy, 42(3), 313–332. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00013</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref6">
                        <label>6</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Bittencourt, M. (2015). Determinants of government and external debt: Evidence from the young democracies of South America. Emerging Markets Finance &amp; Trade, 51(3), 463–472. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1025667</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref7">
                        <label>7</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Bortz, P., Michelena, G., &amp; Toledo, F. (2022). The global financial cycle and external debt: effects on growth and distribution in emerging and developing economies. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 45(3), 476–502. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2068032</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref8">
                        <label>8</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Breusch, T. S., &amp; Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref9">
                        <label>9</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Cavallino, P., &amp; Hofmann, B. (2022, July 18). Capital flows and monetary policy trade-offs in emerging market economies (BIS Working Papers, No. 1032). Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1032.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref10">
                        <label>10</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Colombo, E., &amp; Longoni, E. (2009). The politics of external debt in developing countries (Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 176). University of Milan. http://repec.dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper176.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref11">
                        <label>11</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Czerkawski, C. (1991). Theoretical and policy-oriented aspects of the external debt economics. Springer-Verlag.</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref12">
                        <label>12</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Dawood, M., Baidoo, S. T., &amp; Shah, S. M. R. (2021). An empirical investigation into the determinants of external debt in Asian developing and transitioning economies. Development Studies Research, 8(1), 253–263. https://doi.org/10.1080/21665095.2021.1976658</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref13">
                        <label>13</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes. The Stata Journal, 12(1), 61–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1201200105</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref14">
                        <label>14</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Eberhardt, M., &amp; Bond, S. (2009, October 7). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator (MPRA Paper, No. 17692). Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/1/MPRA_paper_17692.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref15">
                        <label>15</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Eberhardt, M., &amp; Teal, F. (2010, November). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production (Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series, No. 515). University of Oxford. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f9d91b40-d8b7-402d-95eb-75a9cbdcd000</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref16">
                        <label>16</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Elkhishin, S., &amp; Mohieldin, M. (2021). External debt vulnerability in emerging markets and developing economies during the COVID-19 shock. Review of Economics and Political Science, 6(1), 24–47. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-10-2020-0155</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref17">
                        <label>17</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Gokmenoglu, K., &amp; Rafik, R. A. M. (2018). Determinants of external debt: The case of Malaysia. In N. Ozatac &amp; K. K. Gokmenoglu (Eds.), Emerging Trends in Banking and Finance: 3rd International Conference on Banking and Finance Perspectives (pp. 16–33). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01784-2</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref18">
                        <label>18</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Greenidge, K., Drakes, L., &amp; Craigwell, R. (2010). The external public debt in the Carribbean Community. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(3), 418–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.02.004</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref19">
                        <label>19</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Gülcemal, T. (2022). External debt and economic growth in emerging economies: Panel causality analysis. Sosyoekonomi, 30(52), 27–36. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.02.02</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref20">
                        <label>20</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Gylfason, T. (1991). Inflation, growth, and external debt: A view of the landscape. The World Economy, 14(3), 279–297. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.1991.tb00849.x</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref21">
                        <label>21</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Koh, W. C., &amp; Yu, S. (2021). Chapter 5: Macroeconomic and financial sector policies. In M. A. Kose &amp; F. Ohnsorge (Eds.), A decade after the global recession: Lessons and challenges for emerging and developing economies (pp. 211–253). World Bank Publications.</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref22">
                        <label>22</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Kose, M. A., &amp; Ohnsorge, F. (2021). Chapter 1: A decade after the global recession: Lessons and challenges. In M. A. Kose &amp; F. Ohnsorge (Eds.), A decade after the global recession: Lessons and challenges for emerging and developing economies (pp. 5–53). World Bank Publications.</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref23">
                        <label>23</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Kose, M. A., Nagle, P., Ohnsorge, F., &amp; Sugawara, N. (2021). Global waves of debt: Causes and consequences. World Bank Publications.</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref24">
                        <label>24</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., &amp; Sugawara, N. (2020, February). Benefits and costs of debt: The dose makes the poison (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 9166). World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9166</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref25">
                        <label>25</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Mensah, D., Aboagye, A. Q. Q., Abor, J. Y., &amp; Kyereboah-Coleman, A. (2017). External debt among HIPCs in Africa: accounting and panel VAR analysis of some determinants. Journal of Economic Studies, 44(3), 431–455. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-05-2015-0080</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref26">
                        <label>26</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Mijiyawa, A. G. (2022). External debt in developing countries since HIPC and MDRI: What are the driving factors? International Journal of Finance &amp; Economics, 27(2), 1683–1699. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2236</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref27">
                        <label>27</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Newey, W. K., &amp; West, K. D. (1994). Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation. The Review of Economic Studies, 61(4), 631–653. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297912</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref28">
                        <label>28</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Onafowora, O., &amp; Owoye, O. (2019). Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52, 157–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-017-9222-5</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref29">
                        <label>29</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Özata, E. (2017). Determinants of external debt accumulation in Turkey: Evidence from an ARDL bound test approach. Journal of Business &amp; Economic Policy, 4(4), 134–143. https://jbepnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_4_December_2017/14.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref30">
                        <label>30</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref31">
                        <label>31</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Persyn, D., &amp; Westerlund, J. (2008). Error-correction-based cointegration tests for panel data. The Stata Journal, 8(2), 232–241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0800800205</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref32">
                        <label>32</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pesaran, M. H. (2004, August). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (IZA Discussion Paper Series, No. 1240). The Institute for the Study of Labor [IZA]. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref33">
                        <label>33</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref34">
                        <label>34</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pesaran, M. H., &amp; Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationship from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref35">
                        <label>35</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pesaran, M. H., &amp; Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref36">
                        <label>36</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., &amp; Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref37">
                        <label>37</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Ramzan, M., &amp; Ahmad, E. (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic policies. Economic Modelling, 38, 204–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.12.014</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref38">
                        <label>38</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Reinhart, C. M., &amp; Trebesch, C. (2015). The pitfalls of external dependence: Greece, 1829–2015. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2015(2), 307–328. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2015.0000</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref39">
                        <label>39</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Sağdıç, E. N., &amp; Yıldız, F. (2020). Factors affecting external debt in transition economies: The case of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(4), 891–909. http://dx.doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.853521</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref40">
                        <label>40</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Tiruneh, M. W. (2004). An empirical investigation into the determinants of external indebtedness. Prague Economic Papers, 13(3), 261–277. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.242</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref41">
                        <label>41</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Verma, A. K., &amp; Sengupta, R. (2021). Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies, Review of World Economics, 157, 965–1001. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00424-3</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref42">
                        <label>42</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Waheed, A. (2017). Determinants of external debt: A panel data analysis for oil and gas exporting and importing countries. International Journal of Economic and Financial Issues, 7(1), 234–240. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/364168</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref43">
                        <label>43</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref44">
                        <label>44</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">World Bank. (2017, June). Global economic prospects: A fragile recovery (A World Bank Group Flagship Report). World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1024-4</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref45">
                        <label>45</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">World Bank. (2022). International debt statistics. World Bank Publications.</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                                    <ref id="ref46">
                        <label>46</label>
                        <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">World Bank &amp; International Monetary Fund [IMF]. (2022, April 01). Making debt work for development and macroeconomic stability (Document No. DC2022-0003). Development Committee. https://www.devcommittee.org/content/dam/sites/devcommittee/doc/documents/mgr/Final%20on%20Making%20Debt%20Work_DC2022-0003.pdf</mixed-citation>
                    </ref>
                            </ref-list>
                    </back>
    </article>
