Türkiye’de Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Teorisinin Güçlü ve Zayıf Formda Geçerliliği: ARDL ve Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 25, 486 - 502, 31.10.2024

Ali Rauf Karataş

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1438373

Abstract

İktisat ve uluslararası finans yazınında, iki veya daha fazla para biriminin değerlerini karşılaştırmak için çokça atıf alan yaklaşımlardan biri satın alma gücü paritesi (SAGP) teorisidir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de SAGP teorisinin uzun dönemde geçerliliğini, güçlü ve zayıf formda olmak üzere iki açıdan sınamak amacıyla yapılmıştır. 1994:1-2023:10 dönemi aylık verilerinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, SAGP teorisinin güçlü formda sınanması için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ADF birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. SAGP teorisinin geçerliliği zayıf formda sınanırken ise ARDL Sınır Testi analiz aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de söz konusu dönemde, SAGP teorisinin hem güçlü hem de zayıf formda geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular Türkiye ekonomisinde nominal döviz kurları ile ulusal ve uluslararası göreli fiyat seviyeleri arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını göstermiştir. Buna göre 1980 sonrası dönemde dışa açılma ve ekonomik entegrasyon sürecine giren Türkiye ekonomisi, parasal iktisat bağlamında uluslararasılaşma sürecini tamamlamış ve küresel ekonomik sisteme entegre olmuştur.

Keywords

Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi, Birim Kök Testleri, ARDL Sınır Testi

Strong and Weak Form of Validity of the Purchasing Power Parity Theory in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL and Unit Root Tests

Abstract

In the field of economics and international finance, the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) remains one of the most frequently cited frameworks for comparing the values of currencies. This study aims to examine the long-term validity of the PPP theory in Türkiye from two perspectives: the strong form and the weak form. Utilizing monthly data from the period 1994:1 to 2023:10, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF unit root tests are employed to test the strong form of the PPP theory. To assess the validity of the weak form of PPP, the ARDL Bounds Test is utilized as the methodological approach. The findings of this study indicate that the PPP theory holds in both its strong and weak forms for Türkiye during the specified period. Empirical evidence demonstrates a long-term relationship between nominal exchange rates and relative price levels, both domestically and internationally, within the Turkish economy. These results suggest that Türkiye, which embarked on a path of economic liberalization and integration after 1980, has successfully completed the process of internationalization in the context of monetary economics and has effectively integrated into the global economic system.

Keywords

Purchasing Power Parity, Unit Root Tests, ARDL Bounds Test

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