A Bibliometric Analysis on the Role of Mediation in Turkish Foreign Policy Since 2002

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 3, 197 - 217, 02.09.2025

Aykut Karakuş , Recep Şehitoğlu , Oğuz Güner

Abstract

After the Cold War, the elimination of limitations regarding foreign policy has led to Türkiye’s mediation activities improving. However, external security issues and transitional governments during the 1990-2002 period prevented Türkiye from achieving continuity and consistency with its foreign policy. Since 2002, Türkiye has leveraged soft power and humanitarian diplomacy with support from its geopolitical and cultural depth to enhance its mediating role in foreign policy. Between 2002-2020, mediation assumed a significant position among the key principles determining the direction of Turkish foreign policy. Türkiye’s success in regional mediation led to the emergence of branding after 2020. Specifically, Türkiye’s responsibility in the Balkans and its mediator role during the Russia-Ukraine War have been considered historical turning points in attaining a character that produces security. In fact, the empirical analysis on mediation has identified Türkiye as one of the actors most associated with mediation post-2002, placing it in the same cluster as such global players as the United Nations and the United States of America. In this regard, Türkiye has differentiated itself from other actors engaged in the same activity. The study uses a mixed methods to examine this differentiation. The study uses the historical classification of 1990-2024 based on the assumption that Türkiye has become a global actor in meditation since 2002 while only being a regional player pre-2002. In line with this, the study uses bibliometric and discourse analyses benefitting from an explanatory analytical method to explore the concept of mediation.

Keywords

mediation , public diplomacy , Turkish foreign policy , Russo-Ukrainian war , bibliometric analysis

2002'den Günümüze Türk Dış Politikasında Arabuluculuğun Rolü Üzerine Bibliyometrik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş’ın ardından, dış politika ile ilgili kısıtlamaların kaldırılması Türkiye’nin arabuluculuk faaliyetlerinin gelişmesine yol açmıştır. Ancak, 1990-2002 döneminde dış güvenlik sorunları ve geçiş hükümetleri, Türkiye’nin dış politikasında süreklilik ve tutarlılık sağlamasını engellemiştir. 2002’den bu yana Türkiye, jeopolitik ve kültürel derinliğinin desteğiyle yumuşak güç ve insani diplomasiyi kullanarak dış politikadaki arabuluculuk rolünü güçlendirmiştir. 2002-2020 yılları arasında arabuluculuk, Türk dış politikasının yönünü belirleyen temel ilkeler arasında önemli bir yer edinmiştir. Türkiye’nin bölgesel arabuluculuktaki başarısı, 2020’den sonra markalaşmanın ortaya çıkmasına yol açmıştır. Özellikle, Türkiye’nin Balkanlar’daki sorumluluğu ve Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı sırasında arabulucu rolü, güvenlik sağlayan bir karakter kazanmasında tarihi dönüm noktaları olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Aslında, arabuluculuk üzerine yapılan ampirik analiz, Türkiye’yi 2002 sonrası arabuluculukla en çok ilişkilendirilen aktörlerden biri olarak tanımlamış ve onu Birleşmiş Milletler ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri gibi küresel aktörlerle aynı kümede yerleştirmiştir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye, aynı faaliyette bulunan diğer aktörlerden farklılaşmıştır. Çalışmada bu farklılaşma süreci karma araştırma yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin 2002’den önce sadece bölgesel bir aktör iken, 2002’den sonra arabuluculukta küresel bir aktör haline geldiği varsayımına dayanarak 1990-2024 tarihsel sınıflandırmasını kullanmaktadır. Buna paralel olarak çalışma, arabuluculuk kavramını incelemek için açıklayıcı analitik yöntemden istifade ederek bibliyometrik ve söylem analizleri kullanmıştır.

Keywords

arabuluculuk , kamu diplomasisi , Türk dış politikası , Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı , bibliyometrik analiz

References

• Acemoglu, D., Vindigni, A., & Ticchi. D. (2010). Persistence of civil wars. Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(2-3), 664–676.
• Adolfsen, J. F., Kuik, F., Magdalena, E. L., & Schuler, T. (2022). The Impact of the war in Ukraine on Euro area energy markets. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic- bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202204_01~68ef3c3dc6.en.html
• Aljazeera. (2024, December 12). Somalia, Ethiopia agree on compromise to end tension. Turkish leader says. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/12/somalia-ethiopia-agree-on-compromise- to-end-tension-turkish-leader-says
• Anadolu Ajansı. (2025). Rusya ve Ukrayna heyetleri, İstanbul'daki müzakerelerde 'esir takası' konusunda anlaşmaya vardı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/rusya-ve-ukrayna-heyetleri- istanbuldaki-muzakerelerde-esir-takasi-konusunda-anlasmaya-vardi/3569924
• Ani News. (2023, January 31). Pak’s support for Erdogan’s Nobel shows Islamabad’s myopic foreign policy choices. https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/paks-support-for-erdogans-nobel- shows-islamabads-myopic-foreign-policy-choices20230131154656/
• Arce, O., Koester, G., & Nickel, C. (2023). One year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-the effects on euro area inflation. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog20230224~3b75362af3.en.html
• Asan, A. Ş. (2024, February 28). Rapor: Türkiye, Diplomatik Ağı En Geniş 3. Ülke [The 3rd Country with the Largest Diplomatic Network]. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/rapor-turkiye- diplomatik-agi-en-genis-3-ulke-/3149773
• Ataman, M. (2023). The ‘Century of Türkiye’. Insight Turkey, 25(3), 73–96.
• Bağbaşlıoğlu, A. (2018). NATO’nun dönüşümünün Balkanlara yansımaları. Müdahale, genişleme, ortaklıklar [Reflections of NATO’s Transformation in the Balkans. Intervention, Expansion, Partnerships]. Ankara: Nobel Yayınevi.
• Bal, F., & Ufacık, O. E. (2023). Vekalet teorisi üzerine bibliyometrik bir araştırma [A bibliometric study on agency theory]. Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 13(4), 1650–1670.
• Bayer, R., & Keyman, E. F. (2012). Turkey: An emerging hub of globalization and internationalist humanitarian actor? Globalizations, 9(1), 73–90.
• Bebler, A. (2015). The Serbia-Kosovo conflict. In A. Bebler (Ed.), Frozen conflicts in Europe (pp. 151–170). Leverkusen: Verlag Barbara Budrich.
• Brand Finance. (2024). Global Soft Power Index 2024. https://static.brandirectory.com/reports/brand-finance-soft-power-index-2024-digital.pdf
• Business Times. (2023, February 23). 305 nominations for Nobel Peace Prize. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lifestyle/305-nominations-nobel-peace-prize
• Dağ, B. (2022, September 9). UN Secretary-General thanks Türkiye for its role in Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/un-secretary-general- thanks-turkiye-for-its-role-in-russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap/2692495
• Dal, E. P. (2019). Assessing Turkey’s changing conflict management role after the Cold War: Actorness, approaches and tools. Third World Quarterly, 39(12), 2291–2314.
• Development Initiatives. (2023). Global humanitarian assistance report 2023. https://devinit.org/resources/global-humanitarian-assistance-report-2023
• Development Initiatives. (2024). Falling short? Humanitarian funding and reform. https://devinit.org/documents/1506/Falling_short_Humanitarian_funding_and_reform.pdf
• Dieckhoff, M. (2014). International mediation: A specific diplomatic tool for emerging countries? European Review of International Studies, 1(2), 107–124.
• Directorate of Communications of the Republic of Türkiye. (2025). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı Zelenskiy ile görüştü. https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/turkce/haberler/detay/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ukrayna-devlet-baskani-zelenskiy-ile-gorustu-15-05-25
• Donmez, B., & Hamit, D. (2022, August 20). UN chief thanks Türkiye for its 'pivotal role' in grain export deal. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/antonio-guterres-turkiyenin-kararliligi- sayesinde-tahil-anlasmasinin-mumkun-oldugunu-soyledi/2741625
• Eshete, I. M. (2024). Türkiye multilateral relationship. Insight Turkey, 26(3), 13–24.
• Glauber, J. W., & Laborde Debucquet, D. (2023). How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect global food security? In Global Consequences (pp. 10-14). CGIAR.
• Gözkaman, A. (2023). Türkiye’s foreign policy vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine: A new version of active neutrality. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, 27(2), 159–176.
• Guneyev, S. (2024, August 2). Russia prisoner swap: Turkey’s diplomatic coup. Radio France Internationale. https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20240802-russia-prisoner-swap-turkey-s- diplomatic-coup
• Hale, W. (2013). Turkish foreign policy since 1774 (3rd ed.). Oxon: Routledge.
• Harper, D. (2024, August 2). World leaders hail landmark US-Russia prisoner swap. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/2024/08/02/world-leaders-hail-landmark-us-russia-prisoner-swap
• Holtom, P. (2006). An assessment of operation safe place. Connections, 5(2), 111–120.
• Hürriyet Daily News. (2022, March 11). NATO chief praises Turkey’s efforts, calls it key ally. https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-chief-praises-turkeys-efforts-calls-it-key-ally-172141
• Karakuş, A., & Halis, A. (2024). Türkiye-European Union relations in the framework of common foreign and security policy: Identity and security. Researches on Multidisciplinary Approaches, 4(2), 1–11.
• Keyman, E. F. (2017). A new Turkish foreign policy: Towards proactive “moral realism”. Insight Turkey, 19(1), 55–70.
• Khalilzad, Z., Lesser, I. O., & Larrabee, F. S. (2001). Türk-Batı ilişkilerinin geleceği: Stratejik bir plana doğru [The future of Turkish-Western relations: Towards a strategic plan]. Ankara: Avrasya Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi Yayınları.
• Kyiv Post. (2024). Zelensky thanks Turkish President for role in prisoner exchange. Author. https://www.kyivpost.com/index.php/post/1097
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Türkiye. (2019, September 20). Ülkemizin ISAF kapsamında Kabil bölge komutanlığı liderliğini bir yıl daha sürdürmesi hk [About our country's continuing its leadership of Kabul regional command within the ISAF for another year]. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-222_-20-eylul-2012_-ulkemizin-isaf-kapsaminda-kabil-bolge-komutanligi-liderligini-bir-yil- daha-surdurmesi-hk_.tr.mfa
• Mulalić, M., & Karić, M. (2023). Framing Türkiye’s cosmopolitan relations with the Western Balkans. Insight Turkey, 25(2), 103–120.
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2022). By NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the release of his Annual Report 2021. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_193943.htm
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2023). Secretary General congratulates President Erdogan on re-election, looks forward to finalising Sweden’s NATO Membership. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_215283.htm
• Olson, R. W., & Ince, N. (1977). Turkish foreign policy from 1923-1960: Kemalism and its legacy, a review and a critique. Istituto per l'Oriente C. A. Nallino, 57(5/6), 227–241.
• Özçelik, S. (2006). Islamic/Middle Eastern conflict resolution for inter-personal and intergroup conflicts: Wisata, Sulha and third-party. International Relations, 3(12), 3–17.
• Özçelik, S. (2017). İslami çatışma çözümüne giriş: İslami hakemlik (tahkim), İslami arabuluculuk (Wasata), İslami barış yapma (Sulha) ve İslami üçüncü taraf (Ombudsman). Yeni Turkiye: İslam Dünyası Özel Sayısı I, 95(23), 190–202.
• Pearson, F. S. (1974). Foreign military interventions and domestic disputes. International Studies Quarterly, 18(3), 259–290.
• President of Ukraine. (2024). During the negotiations with Russia, the Ukrainian Delegation officially outlined its proposals for a new system of security guarantees for our country. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/na-peregovorah-iz-rosiyeyu-ukrayinska-delegaciya-oficijno-pr-73933
• Qureshi, Y. (1977). A review of Turkey's foreign policy. Pakistan Horizon, 30(1), 54–71.
• Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2022, March 10). Türkiye-Russia-Ukraine trilateral foreign ministers meeting. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-rusya-ukrayna-uclu-disisleri-bakanlari- toplantisi--10-mart-2022.en.mfa
• Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2023). Relations with the Balkan region. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-with-the-balkan-region.en.mfa
• Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2024). International Organisations. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sub.en.mfa?7cafe2ef-78bd-4d88-b326-3916451364f3
• Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2024, August 1). No: 155, Regarding the Prisoner Exchange Operation in Ankara. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-155_-ankara-da-gerceklestirilen-takas- operasyonu-hk.en.mfa
• Şehitoğlu, R. (2021). The Srebrenica massacre and the Dayton treaty in the context of the sovereignty. Iğdır University Journal of Social Sciences, ICOMEP Özel Sayısı, 246–260.
• Şehitoğlu, R., & Karakuş, A. (2023). Siyasi spill over ve uyum/entegrasyon: Avrupa Birliği örneği [Political spill over and harmonization/integration: The case of the European Union]. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 22(1), 295–309.
• Şehitoğlu, R., Tekin, B., & Güner, O. (2023). Education diplomacy in higher education institutions: An evaluation of international student centers as think tanks. Hacettepe University Journal of Education, 38(3). 399–411.
• TASS. (2023, January 31). Hungary proposes to nominate Erdogan for Nobel Peace Prize for mediation on Ukraine. https://tass.com/world/1569655
• The Moscow Times. (2022, September 20). Russia, Ukraine agree to swap 200 prisoners–Erdogan. Author. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russia-ukraine-agree-to-swap-200- prisoners-erdogan-a78841
• The Uppsala Conflict Data Program. (2023). Active state-based conflicts in 2023. https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/charts/
• Tian, N., Silva, D. L. D., Liang, X., & Scarazzato, L. (2024). Trends in world military expenditure. 2023. In Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook (pp. 1–12). SIPRI.
• Tiryaki, A. İ., & Turp, Ş. (2025). Ukraynalılar, Türkiye'nin arabulucu rolüne güveniyor. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dosya-haber/ukraynalilar-turkiyenin-arabulucu-rolune- guveniyor/3567861
• Ufacık, O. E. (2024). Sürdürülebilir kentleşme üzerine bir araştırma [A Study on sustainable urbanization]. Kent Akademisi, 17(Sürdürülebilir İnsani Kalkınma ve Kent), 17–29.
• United Nations. (2012). United Nations guidance for effective mediation. New York: United Nations.
• United Nations. (2022). Black Sea grain exports deal ‘A beacon of hope’ amid Ukraine War–Guterres. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1123062
• United Nations. (2024). Joint coordination centre for the Black Sea grain initiative. https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/background
• Vernigora, A. (2024). Coffee fortune-telling: Prospects for Turkey and BRICS. RIAC. https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/coffee-fortune-telling-prospects-for-turkey-and- brics/?sphrase_id=163871274#detail
• Vuksanovic, V. (2023). So similar, yet so different. International Relations, 20(79), 105–122.
• Walter, B. F. (1997). The critical barrier to civil war settlement. International Organization, 51(3), 335–364.
• Yarımbaş, F. & Kazancı, H. (2023, December 10). 24-year electricity dispute in northern Kosovo resolved thanks to Türkiye’s intensive efforts. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/24- year-electricity-dispute-in-northern-kosovo-resolved-thanks-to-turkiyes-intensive-efforts/3078742
• Yorgancı, Y. (2025). Zelenskiy'nin, Putin'le Türkiye'de görüşme çağrısı, dünya basınında geniş yer buldu. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/zelenskiynin-putinle-turkiyede-gorusme- cagrisi-dunya-basininda-genis-yer-buldu/3564207