The Evolution of Saudi Balancing Policy to Iran

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 173 - 202, 31.12.2022

Necmettin Acar

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1199897

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally adopted a foreign and security policy of relying on external patrons to ensure the regime’s security and territorial integrity since its establishment, has sought new security options due to some developments in the post-2015 period. This is because the power and security gaps in the Middle East region and the rise of Shiism under the leadership of Iran during this period encouraged Saudi Shiites and provided significant support to their anti-regime political activism. After 2015, the diminishing US guarantees for the security and territorial integrity of the Saudi regime, the ineffectiveness of the Saudi-led “Sunni Consensus” in the Yemen and Syria crises, and Russia and China’s deepening relations with Iran have led the Riyadh administration to a policy of internal balancing. In this process, the Riyadh administration has tried to ensure that the Sunni Islamist opposition to the regime is united with the regime through its hardline sectarian anti-Shiite policy at home and abroad. This policy was also used to legitimize the Saudi-Israeli rapprochement in Saudi public opinion.

Keywords

Saudi-Iranian rivalry, Sectarian policy, Gulf Security Architecture, Regime security, Reverse omni-balancing

Suudi Arabistan’ın İran’ı Dengeleme Politikasının Değişimi

Abstract

Kurulduğu günden beri rejim güvenliğini ve toprak bütünlüğünü sağlamak için dışarıdan hamilere dayanmayı geleneksel dış ve güvenlik politikası olarak benimseyen Suudi Arabistan, 2015 sonrası dönemde yaşanan bazı gelişmeler nedeniyle yeni güvenlik arayışlarına girmiştir. Çünkü bu dönemde Orta Doğu bölgesinde oluşan güç ve güvenlik boşlukları ve İran liderliğinde yükselen Şiilik, Suudi vatandaşı Şiilere cesaret aşılamış ve Şiilerin rejim karşıtı siyasal aktivizmlerine önemli bir destek sağlamıştır. 2015 sonrası ABD’nin Suudi rejim güvenliği ve toprak bütünlüğüne yönelik garantilerinin azalması, Suudi liderliğinde oluşturulan “Sünni Konsensüsü”nün Yemen ve Suriye krizlerinde etkisiz kalması, Rusya ve Çin’in İran’la derinleşen ilişkileri Riyad yönetimini dâhili dengeleme politikasına yönlendirmiştir. Bu süreçte Riyad yönetimi içeride ve dışarıda sürdürdüğü Şii karşıtı sertlik yanlısı mezhepsel politikayla içeride rejime muhalif olan Sünni İslamcı kanadın rejimle kenetlenmesini sağlamaya çalışmıştır. Bu politika aynı zamanda Suudi-İsrail yakınlaşmasına Suudi kamuoyunda meşruiyet kazandırmak için de kullanılmıştır. 

Keywords

Suudi-İran rekabeti, Mezhepsel politika, Körfez güvenlik mimarisi, Rejim güvenliği, Reverse omni-balancing

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