The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances

Year 2022, , 569 - 597, 18.01.2023

Murat Çetrez , Yasin Barış Altaylıgil

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1172316

Abstract

This study aims to find out the role of macroeconomic stability in current account balances. The analysis is completed for the period between 1980 and 2016 for 97 countries. The macroeconomic stability is represented by an index created with the countries’ inflation rate (CPI), growth rate, unemployment rate, and fiscal balance data. It is found that macroeconomic stability is one of the important determinants of current account balances like institutional quality and financial development. It has negative and statistically significant relationships with current account balances for four different country groups: developing countries, all countries except industrial, all countries except industrial and African countries, and all countries. Results show that macroeconomic stability is a crucial determinant for developing countries rather than high-income countries.

Keywords

Current account balances, Macroeconomic stability, Panel data analysis

Makroekonomik İstikrarın Cari İşlemler Dengesindeki Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışma literatürde ilk kez makroekonomik istikrarın cari işlemler dengesindeki rolünün ortaya çıkarılmasını amaçlamıştır. Analiz, 97 ülke için 1980-2016 dönemi için yapılmıştır. Makroekonomik istikrar, tüm ülkelerin enflasyon oranı (TÜFE), büyüme oranı, tüm ülkelerin işsizlik oranı ve mali denge verileriyle oluşturulan bir endeks ile temsil edilmiştir. Makroekonomik istikrarın, kurumsal kalite ve finansal gelişme gibi cari işlemler dengesinin önemli belirleyicilerinden biri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dört farklı ülke grubu; gelişmekte olan ülkeler, sanayileşme dışındaki tüm ülkeler, sanayileşmiş ve Afrika ülkeleri hariç tüm ülkeler ve son olarak ta tüm ülkeler olmak üzere dört farklı ülke grubu için makroekonomik istikrar endeksinin, cari işlemler dengesi ile negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu gösterilmiştir. Sonuçlar, makroekonomik istikrarın, özellikle yüksek gelirli ülkelerden ziyade gelişmekte olan ülkeler için daha önemli bir belirleyici olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Cari işlemler dengesi, makroekonomik istikrar, panel veri analizi

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