Türkiye’de İthalat Talebi ve Eşitsizlik

Year 2021, Volume: 71 Issue: 2, 395 - 410, 31.12.2021

Zühal Özbay Daş

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-943291

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de eşitsizlik ve ithalat talebi arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını anlamaktır. Bu çalışmada, 1982-2015 döneminde reel ithalat, reel gelir, nispi fiyatlar, reel ihracat ve eşitsizlik arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkileri tahmin etmek için ARDL eşbütünleşme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, literatür ile uyumlu bir şekilde ithalatın gelir esnekliğinin birden fazla olduğunu göstermiştir. Göreli fiyatların esneklik katsayısı literatürle uyumlu olarak birden az bulunsa da istatistiksel olarak anlamlı çıkmamaktadır. Ancak sonuçlar, göreli düşük gelirli ülkeler için eşitsizlik ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkiyi negatif bulan birtakım çalışmaların aksine Türkiye’de, eşitsizlik ve reel ithalat arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa dönem katsayıları ithalatın, reel gelir ve göreli fiyatlar ile ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir, fakat ithalat şaşırtıcı olmayan bir şekilde ihracat ve eşitsizlik ile kısa dönemde ilişkili değildir. Gelirin kısa dönem katsayısı, uzun dönem katsayısından daha düşük, fakat hala birden büyüktür. Diğer yandan, göreli fiyatların katsayısı kısa dönemde pozitife dönmektedir.

Keywords

İthalat talebi, Eşitsizlik, Eşbütünleşme

Inequality and the Import Demand in Turkey

Abstract

The study aims to see whether the long-run relation between inequality and import demand exists in Turkey. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique is used in this study to estimate the long-run relationships between real imports, income, relative price, real exports, and inequality for the period 1982-2015. The results revealed that the income elasticity of imports is greater than one as the literature suggests. The sign of the coefficient of relative price and its magnitude is also compatible with the literature, while it is not statistically significant. However, the results further reflect that inequality is positively associated with real imports in Turkey contrary to assumptions of the relation between inequality and imports that is found to be negative for lower income countries in some studies. Short-run coefficients reflect that real income and relative prices are associated with real imports, whereas exports and not surprisingly, inequality variables are not in the short-run. The coefficient of income parameter is less in magnitude in the short-run but still greater than one. However, the sign of the coefficient of the relative price turns out to be positive in the short-run

Keywords

Import demand, Inequality, Cointegration

References

• Adam, A., Katsimi, M., Moutos, M. (2012). Inequality and import demand function. Oxford Economic Papers, 64(4), 675-701. google scholar
• Alakbarov, N., Özkaya, H.M., Gündüz & M. Şaşmaz, Ü.M. (2018). Türkiye’nin ithalat talep fonksiyonunun Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi ile tahmini. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(4), 67-84. google scholar
• Aydın M. F., Çıplak U. & Yücel M. E. (2004). Export supply and import demand models for the Turkish Economy. Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey, Research Department Working Paper, No: 04 / 09. google scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1986). Determinants of international trade flows: the case of developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 20, 107-123. google scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1998). Cointegration approach to estimate the long-run trade elasticities in LDCs. International Economic Journal 12(3), 89-96. google scholar
• Bekkers, E., Francois, J. & Manchin, M. (2012). Import prices, income, and inequality. European Economic Review, 56(4), 848-869. google scholar
• Ciani, A. (2021). Income inequality and the quality of imports. Review of World Economics, 157, 375416 DOI:10.1007/s10290-020-00401-2. google scholar
• Çulha, Y.Ö., Eren O. & Öğünç, F. (2019). Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 9-19. google scholar
• Dalgin, M., Trindade, V., & Mitra, D. (2008). Inequality, nonhomothetic preferences and trade: A gravity approach. Southern EconomicJournal, 74(3), 747-74. google scholar
• Demir, M.A. (2020). Gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği ve lüks mal ithalatı arasında panel nedensellik analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(23), 419 - 430. google scholar
• Durmaz, N & Lee, J. (2015). An empirical analysis of import demand function for Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(4), 215-226. google scholar
• Elgin, C. & Elveren, Y.A. (2019). Informality, inequality and feminization of labor. Political Economy Research Institute, Working Paper Series, No: 483. google scholar
• Emran, M.S. & Shilpi, F. (2010). Estimating import demand function in developing countries: A structural econometric approach with applications to India and Sri Lanka. Review of International Economics, 18(2), 307-319. google scholar
• Erlat, G.& Erlat, H. (2012). Measuring vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade: The case for Turkey. InternationalJournal of Economics and Business Research, 4(1/2), 149-165. google scholar
• Estimated Household Income Inequality Data Set (EHII) retrieved from https://utip.gov.utexas.edu/ datasets.html. google scholar
• Francois, J., & Kaplan, S. (1996). Aggregate demand shifts, income distribution, and the Linder Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 244-250. doi:10.2307/2109926. google scholar
• Goldstein, M. & Khan M.S. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. In R.W. Jones & P.B. Kenen (eds.) Handbook of International Economics, Vol.2 (pp. 1041-1105), Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. google scholar
• Houthakker, S.H. & Magee, S. (1969). Income and price elasticities in world trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), 111-125. google scholar
• Hong, P. (1999). Import elasticities revisited. DESA Discussion Paper, No.10. google scholar
• Katsimi, M. & Moutos, T. (2011). Inequality and the US import demand function. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 492-506. google scholar
• Khan, S.M. (1974). Export and import demand in developing countries. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 21(3), 678-693. google scholar
• Khan, M.S.& Knight, M.D. (1988). Import compression and export performance in developing countries. Review of Economic Studies, 70(2), 315-21. google scholar
• Kotan Z.& Saygılı, M. (1999). Estimating an import function for Turkey. Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey, Discussion Paper, 9909. google scholar
• Mitra, D. & Trindade, V. (2005). Inequality and trade. Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(4), 12531271. google scholar
• Narayan, K.P. (2006). Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: Empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis. Asian Economic Journal, 20(4), 393407. google scholar
• Oğuş Binatlı, A. & Sohrabji, N. (2009). Elasticities of Turkish exports and imports. Working Papers from Izmir University of Economics, No.906. google scholar
• Ozbay Das, Z. (2020). Determinants of fertility rates in Turkey. International Journal of Public Administration, 43(5), 466-476, DOI: 10.1080/01900692.2019.1676779. google scholar
• Karaman, F. & Özkale, L. (2006). Static effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union. Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy, Turkey Undersecretariat of the Prime Ministry for Foreign Trade, 1, 117-138. google scholar
• Peasaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (1998). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometric Society monographs, 31, 371-413. google scholar
• Rashid, A. & Razzaq, T. (2010). Estimating import-demand function in ARDL framework: The case of Pakistan. MPRA Paper No.26079. google scholar
• Sekmen, F., Sarıbas, H. (2007). Cointegration and causality among exchange rate, export, and import: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(2),72-83. google scholar
• Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar, C. (2004). Türkiye’nin ihracat talebi fonksiyonunun sınır testi yöntemi ile eş-bütünleşme analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(1), 27-34. google scholar
• Tansel, A.& Togan, S. (1987). Price and income effects in Turkish foreign trade. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd.123, H.3, 521-534. google scholar
• Turkish Statistical Institute, TURKSTAT. google scholar
• World Bank, World Development Indicators. google scholar