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Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisinde Enflasyon Düzeyi ve Uygulanan Döviz Kuru Rejimi Önemli Midir?

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 761 - 778, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1246829

Abstract

Bu çalışma, gelişmiş ve yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyon ve büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1970-2019 dönemi için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu ilişkiyi incelemede, iktisadi yazın tarafından önerilen beşerî sermaye, finansal gelişme, finansal açıklık ve ticari açıklık gibi büyümeyi etkileyen temel değişkenler dikkate alınmıştır. Enflasyon ve büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamada, iktisadi yazında yer alan çoğu çalışmadan farklı olarak enflasyon düzeyi ve döviz kuru rejiminin içsel eşik oluşturma durumları dikkate alınmaktadır. Bu değişkenlerin içsel eşik oluşturma durumlarını incelemek için iki aşamalı dinamik panel içsel eşik tahmin yöntemi uygulanmıştır. İki aşamalı dinamik panel içsel eşik tahmin yönteminden elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon eşik düzeyinin gelişmiş ülkeler için %3 ve yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için %13 olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar, gelişmiş ekonomilerde enflasyonun %3 ve altında olması durumunda enflasyon ve büyüme arasında anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığını ancak enflasyonun %3’ün üzerinde olması durumunda enflasyonun büyümeyi azaltıcı etkisi olduğunu belirtmektedir. Yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde ise enflasyonun %13 ve altında olması durumunda enflasyonun büyümeyi desteklediğini ancak bu eşik değerin aşılması durumunda enflasyonun büyümeyi azaltıcı etki yarattığını göstermektedir. Enflasyon ve büyüme ilişkisi ülkelerin uyguladığı döviz kuru rejimine göre de değişim sergilemektedir. İki aşamalı dinamik panel içsel eşik tahmin yöntem sonuçları, sınırlı esnek döviz kuru rejiminin hem gelişmiş hem de yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde içsel eşik değer oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Sabit ve sınırlı esnek döviz kuru rejimi uygulayan ülkelerde enflasyon ve büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki gözlemlenirken, yönetilen ve dalgalı döviz kuru rejimi uygulayan ülkelerde enflasyon ve büyüme arasında negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, politika yapıcıların enflasyonun ekonomide belirsizlik yaratarak büyümeyi azaltıcı etki doğurabileceğini dikkate almalarını gerektirmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, enflasyonun hem stabil hem de düşük düzeyde olmasını hedefleyen makroekonomik politikalar, enflasyonun büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini ortadan kaldırarak makroekonomik istikrara ve sürdürülebilir büyümeye katkı sağlayacağı beklenmektedir.

References

  • Aydın, C., Esen, Ö. ve Bayrak, M. (2016). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Turkish Republics in transition process. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 229, 196-205.
  • Azam, M. ve Khan, S. (2022). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth: Further empirical evidence from the developed and developing world. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(4), 4224-4243.
  • Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 166–176.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Spiegel, M. M. (2009). Moderate inflation and the deflation–depression link. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(4), 787-798.
  • Blanchard, O., Dell Ariccia, G. ve Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Revista de Economía Institucional, 12(22), 61-82.
  • Blanchard, O., Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R. ve Chamon, M. (2016). Capital flows: expansionary or contractionary?. American Economic Review, 106(5), 565-569.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1998). Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3-26.
  • Cameron, N., Hum, D. ve Simpson, W. (1996). Stylized facts and stylized illusions: Inflation and productivity revisited. Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(1),152-162.
  • Chinn, M. D. ve Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(3), 271-298.
  • Dorrance, G. S. (1966). Inflation and Growth: The Statistical Evidence. IMF Staff Papers, 13(1), 82-102.
  • Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. ve Timmer, M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512.
  • Friedman, M. (1956). The quantity theory of money – a restatement. Friedman M. (Ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (s. 3-21) içinde. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A. M., Ostry, J. D. ve Wolf, H. (1996). Does the exchange rate regime matter for inflation and growth?. Economic Issues, 2, 1-13.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: Inflation may be harmful to your growth. IMF Staff Papers, 45(4), 672-710.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
  • Ibarra, R. ve Trupkin, D. R. (2016). Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?. Economic Modelling, 52, 332-351.
  • Ilzetzki, E., Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2019). Exchange arrangements entering the twenty-first century: Which anchor will hold?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(2), 599-646.
  • Khan, M. S. ve Ssnhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1-21.
  • Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. ve Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: A reappraisal. IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 8-62.
  • Kremer, S., Bick, A. ve Nautz, D. (2013). Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44, 861-878.
  • López-Villavicencio, A. ve Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 455-464.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south Asian countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-135.
  • Rapach, D. E. (2003). International evidence on the long-run impact of inflation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(1), 23-48.
  • Sarel, M. (1996). Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), 199-215.
  • Sidrauski, M. (1967). Inflation and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 75(6), 796-810.
  • Stockman, A. C. (1981). Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 8(3), 387-393.
  • Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development. IMF Working Papers No. 16/5.
  • Valdovinos, C. G. F. (2003). Inflation and economic growth in the long run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 167-173.
  • Vinayagathasan, T. (2014). Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 4(1), 41-64.
  • Wai, U. T. (1959). The relation between inflation and economic development: a statistical inductive study. IMF Staff Papers, 7(2), 302-317.

Do Inflation Level and Exchange Rate Regime Important for the Inflation-Growth Relationship?

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 761 - 778, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1246829

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between inflation and growth in advanced (AE) and emerging markets and developing (EMDE) economies during the 1970-2019 period. To investigate this relationship, we consider human capital, financial development, financial openness, and trade openness which are the main determinants of growth as suggested by the economics literature. In explaining inflation-growth relationship, we regard that the level of inflation and prevailing exchange rate regime (ERR) may provide data-driven estimated thresholds for the impact of inflation on growth which are often ignored by the literature. This study employs two-step dynamic panel threshold estimation method to investigate the thresholding impacts of these variables. Our estimation results suggest that threshold level of inflation is 3% for AE and 13% for EMDE. The empirical results indicate that inflation-growth relationship is insignificant in AE with inflation is less than or equal to 3% whilst inflation lowers growth in AE with inflation level is higher than 3%. In EMDE, inflation increases growth in economies with inflation is less than or equal to 13% while inflation diminishes growth in economies with inflation level exceeds this threshold level. The relationship between inflation and growth also tends to change with the prevailing ERR. The estimation results suggest that limited flexibility ERR is estimated as endogenous threshold both in AE and EMDE. Pegged and limited flexibility ERR prevailing economies tend to experience a positive association between inflation and growth, while managed and freely floating ERR prevailing economies appear to have a negative association between inflation and growth. The results suggest that policy makers may consider that inflation causes economic uncertainty which impedes growth. In this vein, macroeconomic policies which aim to keep inflation both stable and low level are expected to contribute to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth by eliminating negative impact of inflation on growth.

References

  • Aydın, C., Esen, Ö. ve Bayrak, M. (2016). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Turkish Republics in transition process. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 229, 196-205.
  • Azam, M. ve Khan, S. (2022). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth: Further empirical evidence from the developed and developing world. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(4), 4224-4243.
  • Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 166–176.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Spiegel, M. M. (2009). Moderate inflation and the deflation–depression link. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(4), 787-798.
  • Blanchard, O., Dell Ariccia, G. ve Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Revista de Economía Institucional, 12(22), 61-82.
  • Blanchard, O., Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R. ve Chamon, M. (2016). Capital flows: expansionary or contractionary?. American Economic Review, 106(5), 565-569.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1998). Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3-26.
  • Cameron, N., Hum, D. ve Simpson, W. (1996). Stylized facts and stylized illusions: Inflation and productivity revisited. Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(1),152-162.
  • Chinn, M. D. ve Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(3), 271-298.
  • Dorrance, G. S. (1966). Inflation and Growth: The Statistical Evidence. IMF Staff Papers, 13(1), 82-102.
  • Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. ve Timmer, M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512.
  • Friedman, M. (1956). The quantity theory of money – a restatement. Friedman M. (Ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (s. 3-21) içinde. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A. M., Ostry, J. D. ve Wolf, H. (1996). Does the exchange rate regime matter for inflation and growth?. Economic Issues, 2, 1-13.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: Inflation may be harmful to your growth. IMF Staff Papers, 45(4), 672-710.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
  • Ibarra, R. ve Trupkin, D. R. (2016). Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?. Economic Modelling, 52, 332-351.
  • Ilzetzki, E., Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2019). Exchange arrangements entering the twenty-first century: Which anchor will hold?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(2), 599-646.
  • Khan, M. S. ve Ssnhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1-21.
  • Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. ve Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: A reappraisal. IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 8-62.
  • Kremer, S., Bick, A. ve Nautz, D. (2013). Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44, 861-878.
  • López-Villavicencio, A. ve Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 455-464.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south Asian countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-135.
  • Rapach, D. E. (2003). International evidence on the long-run impact of inflation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(1), 23-48.
  • Sarel, M. (1996). Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), 199-215.
  • Sidrauski, M. (1967). Inflation and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 75(6), 796-810.
  • Stockman, A. C. (1981). Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 8(3), 387-393.
  • Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development. IMF Working Papers No. 16/5.
  • Valdovinos, C. G. F. (2003). Inflation and economic growth in the long run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 167-173.
  • Vinayagathasan, T. (2014). Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 4(1), 41-64.
  • Wai, U. T. (1959). The relation between inflation and economic development: a statistical inductive study. IMF Staff Papers, 7(2), 302-317.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Fatma Taşdemir 0000-0001-8706-7942

Tuğba Sağlamdemir This is me 0000-0003-0001-9513

Early Pub Date June 15, 2023
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 12 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Taşdemir, F., & Sağlamdemir, T. (2023). Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisinde Enflasyon Düzeyi ve Uygulanan Döviz Kuru Rejimi Önemli Midir?. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 761-778. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1246829

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