NATO’s Southern Flank: The Evolution of Türkiye’s Strategic Role and Its Implications for Regional Security

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 5, 2951 - 2968, 31.12.2023

Birol Akduman

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1293582

Abstract

This article delves into the progressive development of Türkiye's strategic function within NATO, and what it signifies for regional security along the Alliance's Southern Flank. Türkiye, as a crucial NATO member since 1952, has steadfastly assumed a considerable part in the organization's collective defense, thereby bolstering the stability of the region. The article offers a historical review of Türkiye's involvement in NATO, tracking its journey from joining the Alliance during the initial Cold War years to navigating the more intricate security milieu of the post-Cold War era. The focus then shifts to the geopolitical challenges faced by NATO on its Southern Flank, particularly in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea region. Within this context, the article analyzes Türkiye's evolving strategic role, including its military capabilities and growing defense industry, diplomacy, and soft power initiatives, as well as its efforts to balance relations with NATO, Russia, and other regional actors. The article also explores Türkiye's strategic decision to acquire the Russian S-400 missile defense system, a move that underscores Türkiye's commitment to diversifying its defense capabilities and enhancing its national security, while also navigating the complex dynamics of international alliances and NATO's evolving security landscape. Subsequently, it discusses the possible advantages and hurdles that could arise from Türkiye's dynamic strategic role in regional security and on NATO's Southern Flank. Key topics addressed include the reinforcement of NATO's defense capabilities, the enhancement of regional security cooperation, and potential strains within the Alliance. The piece wraps up with an evaluation of future prospects for Türkiye's strategic function in NATO and the implications for regional security. This underlines the significance of maintaining a united and adaptable NATO that can adeptly respond to the evolving security challenges in the region.

Keywords

Black Sea Region, Eastern Mediterranean, Geopolitical Challenges, NATO, Regional Security, Türkiye

NATO'nun Güney Kanadı: Türkiye'nin Stratejik Rolünün Evrimi ve Bölgesel Güvenlik Üzerine Etkileri

Abstract

Bu makale, Türkiye'nin NATO içindeki stratejik rolünün evrimini ve bu rolün İttifak'ın Güney Kanadı'ndaki bölgesel güvenliğe etkilerini incelemektedir. 1952'den bu yana kritik bir NATO üyesi olan Türkiye, örgütün kolektif savunmasında önemli bir rol oynayarak bölgesel istikrarı güçlendirmiştir. Makale Türkiye'nin, NATO'ya katıldığı Soğuk Savaşın ilk yıllarından, Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemin daha karmaşık güvenlik ortamına dek süregelen yolculuğunu takip ederek Türkiye'nin NATO'daki rolüne tarihsel bir bakış sunmaktadır. Ayrıca, NATO'nun Güney Kanadı'nda, özellikle Ortadoğu, Doğu Akdeniz ve Karadeniz bölgelerindeki jeopolitik zorluklar üzerine odaklanılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye'nin artan stratejik önemi, askeri kapasitesi, genişleyen savunma sanayi, diplomasi ve yumuşak güç stratejileri ile NATO, Rusya ve diğer bölgesel aktörlerle olan ilişkilerinin dengelenmesi analiz edilmektedir. Makale, Türkiye'nin Rus S-400 füze savunma sistemlerinin temini ve bu durumun NATO'nun birliği ve etkinliği üzerindeki etkilerini de değerlendirmektedir. Ayrıca, Türkiye'nin bölgesel güvenlikte ve NATO'nun Güney Kanadı'nda üstlenebileceği dinamik stratejik rolün avantajları ve karşılaşılabilecek engeller tartışılmaktadır. Ele alınan başlıca konular arasında NATO'nun savunma yeteneklerinin güçlendirilmesi, bölgesel güvenlik iş birliğinin artırılması ve İttifak içindeki potansiyel gerilimler yer almaktadır. Makale, bölgedeki güvenlik zorluklarına etkin bir şekilde yanıt verebilen uyumlu ve birleşik bir NATO'nun öneminin vurgulandığı, Türkiye'nin NATO içindeki stratejik rolünün geleceğe yönelik beklentilerine ve bölgesel güvenlik üzerindeki etkilerine dair değerlendirmelerle sonlanmaktadır.

Keywords

NATO, Türkiye, Bölgesel Güvenlik, Orta Doğu, Doğu Akdeniz, Karadeniz

Supporting Institution

DEÜ Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi

References

• Aydin, M. (2005). “Turkey's foreign policy in the post-Cold War era: The challenges of multi-regionalism”. Journal of International Affairs, 2(2), 23-42.
• Aydıntaşbaş, A. (2020). From myth to reality: How to understand Turkey's role in the Western Balkans. European Council on Foreign Relations.
• Aykan, M. B. (2019). Turkey's Eastern Mediterranean policy: A balancing act between geopolitics and the energy game. EastWest Institute Policy Paper.
• Birnbaum, M. (2020). “Geopolitical competition heats up in the Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Energy Security”, 1-9.
• Council on Foreign Relations. (2023). “Turkey's role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Backgrounder”, 105(1), 1-4.
• Cook, S. A., & Vale, G. (2012). U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership. New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations Press.
• Coşkun, T. (2019). “Turkey's defense industry: Opportunities and challenges in the 21st century”. Insight Turkey, 21(2), 43-56.
• Çağatay, S. (2014). The rise of Turkey: The twenty-first century's first Muslim power. Potomac Books.
• Çelikpala, M. (2020). “Turkey's defense industry: a strategic sector with a global outlook”. The New Turkey, 1-15.
• Danforth, N. (2021). Turkey's eastern Mediterranean policy: Escalation, negotiation, and future prospects. German Marshall Fund of the United States.
• EIA. (2021). Eastern Mediterranean natural gas: Analyzing future production and export capacity. U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• Erdi, Ö. (2017). “The development of Turkey's defense industry and the role of technology transfer”. Defense & Security Analysis, 33(2), 172-186.
• Gramer, R., & De Luce, D. (2019). “Turkey’s purchase of Russian missiles is testing the United States and NATO”. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/12/turkeys-purchase-of-russian-missiles-is-testing-the-united-states-and-nato/
• Gibbons-Neff, T., & Schmitt, E. (2019, July 17). “Turkey's purchase of Russian missiles is a done deal, Erdogan says”. The New York Times, Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/world/europe/turkey-missiles-erdogan.html
• Gibbons-Neff, T., & Schmitt, E. (2019). “In a first, U.S. kicks NATO ally Turkey out of fighter program”. The New York Times, Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/world/europe/turkey-f35.html
• Gordon, P. H. (2010). Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey can revive a fading partnership. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
• Götz, E. (2018). “The Black Sea region: A critical intersection”. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 20(6), 579-591.
• İçduygu, A., & Şimşek, D. (2016). Syrian refugees in Turkey: The long road ahead. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute.
• Kaplan, R. D. (2004). The coming anarchy: Shattering the dreams of the post Cold War. New York, NY: Random House.
• Keyman, E. F. (2016). “Turkey's role in regional and global governance: A post-2011 assessment”. Rising Powers Quarterly, 1(1), 207-219.
• Kirişci, K. (2012). “Turkey's engagement with its neighborhood: A synthesis”. In R. Linden (Ed.), Turkey and its neighbors: Foreign relations in transition (pp. 33-64). Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Kirişci, K. (2014). Syrian refugees and Turkey's challenges: Going beyond hospitality. Brookings Institution. Kotzias, N. (2015). “Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical strategy, economic development, and international alliances”. International Politics, 52(6), 689-708.
• Kuniholm, B. R. (1991). The origins of the Cold War in the Near East: Great power conflict and diplomacy in Iran, Turkey, and Greece. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Larrabee, F. S. (2010). “Turkey's New Geopolitics”. Survival, 52(2), 157-180.
• Larrabee, F. S., & Lesser, I. O. (2003). Turkish foreign policy in an age of uncertainty. RAND Corporation.
• Lesser, I. O. (2016). Southern (Dis)Comfort: Turkey's Security, Stability, and Identity on NATO's Frontier. Washington, DC: German Marshall Fund of the United States.
• Lesser, I. O. (2016). “Turkey, the United States, and the Delusion of Geopolitics”. Survival, 58(2), 33-40.
• Lindenstrauss, G., & Kaya, S. (2018). “Turkey's indigenous defense industry: A source of self-sufficiency or a burden?”, Middle Eastern Analysis, 10(112), 77-85.
• Mankoff, J. (2019). “The Black Sea and the future of NATO-Russia competition”. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 1-8.
• NATO. (2020). NATO Secretary General announces military deconfliction mechanism between Greece and Turkey [Press release]. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_177986.htm
• NATO. (2021). Annual Report 2021.
• NATO. (2021). NATO's relations with Turkey. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm
• NATO. (2022). Defense Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021).
• Öniş, Z. (2011). “Multiple faces of the “new” Turkish foreign policy: Underlying dynamics and a critique”. Insight Turkey, 13(1), 47-65.
• Özcan, G., & Özdamar, Ö. (2020). “Turkey's relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia in the new era”. SETA Foundation. Retrieved from https://www.setav.org/en/assets/uploads/2020/08/R110_TurkeysRelations.pdf
• Özcan, N. A., & Özdamar, O. (2018). “Turkey's strategic choices in a turbulent Middle East”. Defense & Security Analysis, 34(1), 37-51.
• Pantucci, R., & Clark, J. (2020). The S-400 problem: Turkey, NATO, and a changing region. Royal United Services Institute.
• Robins, P. (2003). Suits and uniforms: Turkish foreign policy since the Cold War. London, UK: Hurst & Company.
• Sayari, S. (2000). “Turkish foreign policy in the post-Cold War era: The challenges of multi-regionalism”. Journal of International Affairs, 54(1), 169-182.
• Schmidt, M. (2015). “The southern flank: NATO's southern strategy reconsidered”. NATO Review. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/12/17/the-southern-flank-natos-southern-strategy-reconsidered/index.html
• Socor, V. (2016). “Turkey's Delicate Balancing Act in the Black Sea”. Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13(86).
• Stein, A. A. (2014). “Turkey's new foreign policy: Ankara's search for stability in a changing Middle East”. Mediterranean Quarterly, 25(2), 79-94.
• Stein, A. A. (2019). The Turkey-Russia S-400 relationship and the U.S. response. Atlantic Council.
• Tagliapietra, S., & Zachmann, G. (2020). “Rethinking the security of the European Union's gas supply”. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2.
• The Economist. (2022, February 25). “Turkey's balancing act”. The Economist.
• The New York Times. (2022, February 25). “Turkey's leader walks a tightrope between Russia and Ukraine”. The New York Times.
• Tokyay, M., & Ege, B. (2021). The strategic implications of Turkey's drone success. Middle East Institute.
• Tol, G. (2018). Turkey and the West: Fault lines in a troubled alliance. Brookings Institution Press.
• Tsakiris, T. (2018). “The geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries: The case of Cyprus”. Insight Turkey, 20(3), 7-18.
• Tsereteli, M. (2018). “NATO and the Black Sea Region: The regional security challenge and the role of the transatlantic community”. The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 1-22.
• Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency [TIKA]. (2020). TIKA Annual Report 2020. Retrieved from https://www.tika.gov.tr/en/publications
• Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley.
• Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy is what states make of it: the social construction of power politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391-425.
• Yayla, M. (2019). “The Turkish defense industry: Opportunities and challenges in the next decade”. Insight Turkey, 21(2), 67-87.
• Yılmaz, H., & Öztürk, A. (2019). “Turkey's role in NATO: A comparative analysis of its contributions to the alliance”. Defense & Security Analysis, 35(1), 19-36.
• Yost, D. S. (2011). “NATO's evolving purposes and the next Strategic Concept. International Affairs”, 86(2), 489-522.