Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal 1308-7215 Istanbul University FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR UYGULAMA Aslan Arş. Gör. Özgür Küçükaksoy Yrd. Doç. Dr. İsmail 09 05 2011 0 4 25 38 09 05 2011 Copyright © 2005, Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal 2005 Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal

Finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde, arz öncüllü ve talep takipli hipotezler büyük önem taşımaktadır. Arz öncüllü hipoteze göre, finansal gelişme ekonomik büyümeyi arttırmaktayken, talep takipli hipoteze göre ise ilişkinin yönü ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğrudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin nedensellik boyutu, 1970-2004 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak incelenmeye çalışılmaktadır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testleri, finans büyüme ilişkisinde, ilişkinin yönünün finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru olduğunu göstermekte ve arz öncüllü hipotezi destekleyici kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

 Finansal Gelişme Finansal Baskılama Ekonomik Büyüme Zaman Serileri Birim Kök Granger Nedensellik Testi Türkiye Ekonomisi Atamtürk, Burak (2005); “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Nedensellik Yönü Üzerine Bir İnceleme (1975–2003)”, Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, 46. Seri, s. 99-105. Bagehot, Walter (1873); Lombart Street: A Description of the Money Market, E. P. Dutton and Company, Reprint 1920, New York. Berthelemy, J. C. Varoudakis (1996); “Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development”, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 48, Issue 2, s. 300–328. Bloch, Harry ve Tang, Sam Hak Kan (2003); “The Role of Financial Development in Economic Growth”, Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 3, Issue 3, s. 243–251. Calderon, César ve Liu, Lin (2003); “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 72, Issue 1, s. 321–334. Capasso, Salvatore (2004); “Financial Markets, Development and Economic Growth: Tales of Informational Asymmetries”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Volume 18, Issue 3, s. 267-292. Davis, Lance E. (1965); “The Investment Market, 1870-1914: The Evolution of a National Market ”, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 25, Issue 3, s. 151-197. Dickey, David A. ve Fuller, Wayne A. (1979); “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, s. 427-431. Evans, Alun Dwyfor v.d. (2002); “Human Capital and Financial Development in Economic Growth: New Evidence Using the Translog Production Function”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 7, Issue 2, s. 123-140. Ghali, Khalifa H. (1999); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience”, Review of Development Economics, Volume 3, Issue 3, s. 310–322. Ghirmay, Teame (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis”, African Development Review, Vol. 16, Issue 3, s. 415–432. Granger, C.W.J. ve Newbold, Paul (1974); “Spurious Regressions in Economics”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2/ 2, s. 111-120. Greene, William H. (2000); Econometric Analysis, Prentice-Hall Inc. Greenwood, Jeremy ve Jovonovic, Boyan (1990); “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, s. 1076–1107. Gurley John G. ve Shaw, Edward S. (1955); “Financial Aspects of Economic Development”, American Economic Review, Vol. 45, Issue 4, s. 515-538. Johnston, Jack ve Dinardo, John (1997); Econometric Methods, The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. Kularatne, Chandana (2001); “An Examination of the Impact of Financial Deepening on Long-Run Economic Growth: An Application of a VECM Structure to a Middle Income Country Context”, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies, Annual Forum 2001, http://www.tips.org.za/f2001/kularatne.pdf. MacKinnon, J.G. (1996); “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, s. 601-618. Onur, Sara (2005); “Finansal Liberalizasyon ve GSMH Büyümesi Arasındaki İlişki”, Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 1, Sayı 1, s. 127–152. Patrick, Hugh T. (1966); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 14 (2), s. 174–189. QMS (2004); Eviews 5 User’s Guide, April. Rioja, Felix ve Valev, Neven (2004); “Does One Size Fit All?: A Reexamination of the Finance and Growth Relationship”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 74, Issue 2, s. 429-447. Robinson, Joan (1952) “The Generalization of the General Theory ”, içinde The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London: Macmillan, s. 69-142. Rousseau, Peter L. (2003); “Historical Perspectives on Financial and Economic Growth”, Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis), Vol. 85, Issue 4, s. 81–105. Schumpeter, Joseph (1911); The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge. Shan, Jordan Z. vd. (2001); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-and-Chicken Problem?”, Review of International Economics, Volume 9, Issue 3, s. 443–454. Sylla, Richard (1969); “Federal Policy, Banking Market Structure, and Capital Mobilization in the United States1863-1913 ”, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 29, Issue 4, s. 657-686. Thangavelu, Shandre M. ve Jiunn, Ang Beng James (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Analysis”, Empirical Economics, Vol. 29, Issue 2, s. 247–260. Tsuru, Kotaro (2000); “Finance and Growth: Some Theoretical Considerations, and a Review of the Empirical Literature”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 228. Xu, Zhenhui (2000); “Financial Development, Investment, and Economic Growth”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 38, Iss. 2, s. 331–344.