İLK HALKA ARZLARDA UZUN DÖNEM GETİRİLERİNİN TAHMİNİ: YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI İLE İMKB İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı İMKB’de ilk defa halka arz edilen hisse senetlerinin uzun dönem getirilerini yapay sinir ağı kullanarak tahmin etmektir. Literatürde uzun dönem halka arz getirilerinin tahmin edilmesinde yaygın olarak Doğrusal regresyon yönteminden yararlanıldığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise doğrusal regresyon yöntemine ek olarak yapay sinir ağı teknolojisi kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem getirileri tahmin etmede doğrusal regresyon ve yapay sinir ağı modellerinin performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular yapay sinir ağının uzun dönem halka arz getirilerini tahmin etmede doğrusal regresyon yönteminden daha başarılı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır

Keywords

• Halka arz, uzun dönem performans, yapay sinir ağı, doğrusal regresyon, İMKB

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