AVRUPA PARASAL BİRLİĞİNDE KAMU BORÇ STOKU VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2009, Issue: 9, 30 - 55, 05.09.2011

Araş. Gör. Burcu Berke

Abstract

Fiyat seviyesinin belirlenmesinin geleneksel (monetarist) görüşü, parasal politikanın rolüne odaklanırken mali
politikanın rolünü ihmal etmektedir. Geleneksel teoride, fiyat seviyesi para arzı ve talebiyle belirlenirken,
1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ortaya çıkan fiyat düzeyinin mali kuramı (FTPL) mali otoritenin, zamanlararası kamu
bütçe kısıtının sağlanmasından bağımsız olarak mali değişkenlerini oluşturmasına izin verip mali politikaların
fiyat seviyesini belirleyebildiğini vurgulamaktadır. Yeni teori, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine üye ülkelerde fiyat
seviyesinin farklılaşmasını açıklayabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine Eski ve
Yeni Üye ülkeler ile Aday ülkelerde mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini etkileyip etkilemediğinin panel veri
yöntemiyle analiz edilmesidir. Panel veri analizi, tüm ülke gruplarında Ricardocu veya parasal üstünlük
rejiminin geçerli olduğunu veya bir diğer ifadeyle FTPL’nin geçerli olmadığını kanıtlamaktadır.

Keywords

Avrupa Parasal Birlik, Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Kuramı, Ricardocu ve Ricardocu Olmayan Mali Politikalar, Panel Veri Analizi

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