jepr İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 2148-3876 Istanbul University 10.26650/JEPR1709609 Macroeconomics (Other) International Economics (Other) Makro İktisat (Diğer) Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer) Asymmetric Threshold Effects in the Growth–Current AccountDeficit Nexus: Evidence from Türkiye Using Quantile-on-Quantile Regression https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2799-9080 Boğa Semra DOGUS UNIVERSITY https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-8768 Erkişi Kemal ANTALYA BILIM UNIVERSITY 02 19 2026 13 1 146 164 05 30 2025 11 09 2025 Copyright © 2014, Journal of Economic Policy Researches 2014 Journal of Economic Policy Researches

This study aims to analyse the structure of the relationship between economic growth and the current account deficit in the Turkish economy and how this relationship varies across different levels of growth. It is widely acknowledged in the literature that commonly used linear econometric models often fail to capture potential asymmetries and heterogeneities between variables. Therefore, this study employs the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression method, which allows simultaneous assessment of both dependent and independent variables across various quantile levels. The analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the period 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3. The findings reveal that the relationship between the current account deficit and economic growth is asymmetric and quantile sensitive. In particular, rising current account deficits have a negative and statistically significant effect on growth at low levels of economic expansion. Conversely, this relationship tends to weaken or reverse at higher growth levels. These results reveal that when the current account deficit exceeds a certain threshold, it becomes unsustainable and acts as a drag on growth. The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.

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