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Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir

Year 2023, Issue: 85, 199 - 213, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159

Abstract

Son 20 yılda yapay zekâ ve robot teknolojisinde yaşanan gelişmeler teknoloji ve emek arasında yer değişimi yaşanma ihtimalini ön plana çıkarmıştır. Yapay zekâ ve otonom robotların çalışma yaşamına daha fazla entegre olduğu görülürken, makinelerin üstlenmiş olduğu görevlerin paralel ölçüde arttığı görülmektedir. Emek faktörünün ise, çalışma yaşamındaki görevi ve ulusal gelirden aldığı pay azalmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, yapay zekâ ve otonom robotların gelişim sürecini ve istihdam üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Yapay zekâ ve otonom robotların istihdam üzerindeki muhtemel olumsuz etkilerinin çözümünde ise evrensel temel gelirin bir sosyal politika önlemi olarak uygulanabilirliği araştırılmıştır. Bu çerçevede evrensel temel gelirin gelişimi, avantajları ve itirazları incelenerek, sosyal politika aracı olarak öneminden bahsedilmiştir. Sonuç olarak yapay zekâ ve otonom robotların uzun vadede işleri dönüşüme zorlayacağı ve birçok işin yapay zekâya sahip robotlar tarafından yapılacağı saptanmıştır. Üretim ve tüketim dengesinin sağlanabilmesi, mal ve hizmetlere olan talebin artırılabilmesi için evrensel temel gelirin süreç içerisinde bir sosyal politika önlemi olarak küresel ölçekte yaygınlaşabileceği tespit edilmiştir.

References

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  • Misztal, P. (2018). Universal basic income, theory and practice. Managerial Economics. 19(1), 103-116. google scholar
  • Misztal, P. (2019). Unconditional basic income as an instrument for reducing income inequalities. The case of Poland. Acta Oeconomica, 69(1), 63-79 google scholar
  • Murat, G. (2023). Endüstri 4.0’ın işgücü piyasalarına ve sendikalara etkisi. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 13(25), 159-181. google scholar
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  • Sorenson, S. & Keri G. (2013). How to tackle US employees’ stagnating engagement. ESM. Erişim adresi: https://www.enterpriseengagement.org/articles/content/8312818/how-to-tackle-stagnating-engagement/ google scholar
  • Standing, G. (2015). Why basic ıncome’s emancipatory value exceeds ıts monetary value. Basic Income Studies, 10(2), 193-223. https://doi.org/10.1515/bis-2015-0021 google scholar
  • Standing, G. (2020). Temel gelir (C. Demirdöğdü Çev.). İstanbul: Tellekt Yayın. google scholar
  • Stanford University (2021). Gathering strength, gathering storms: the one hundred year study on artificial ıntelligence (AI100) 2021. Study Panel Report. Erişim adresi: https://ai100.stanford.edu/gathering-strength-gathering-storms-one-hundred-year-study-artificial-intelligence-ai100-2021-study google scholar
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Impacts of Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Universal Basic Income as a Social Policy Measure

Year 2023, Issue: 85, 199 - 213, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159

Abstract

Developments in artificial intelligence and robotics technology in the last 20 years have highlighted the possibility of substitution between technology and labor. As artificial intelligence and autonomous robots are increasingly integrated into working life, tasks undertaken by machines are also increasing. The role of the labor factor in working life and its proportion in national income are decreasing. Hence, this study aims to examine the development process of artificial intelligence and autonomous robots and their impact on employment. The feasibility of universal basic income as a social policy measure is investigated to address the possible negative effects of artificial intelligence and autonomous robots on employment. The context development, advantages, and objections of universal basic income are examined, and its importance as a social policy tool is mentioned. Consequently, results show that in the long term, artificial intelligence and autonomous robots will force the transformation of jobs, with many jobs being performed by robots with artificial intelligence. Universal basic income can be adopted globally as a social policy measure to ensure the balance of production and consumption and increase demand for goods and services.

References

  • Acemoğlu, D. & Restrepo, P. (2017b). The race between machıne and man: ımplıcatıon of technology for growth, factor shares and employment. google scholar
  • American Economic Review, 108(6), 1488-1542. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696 google scholar
  • Acemoğlu, D. & Restrepo, P. (2018). Artıfıcıal ıntelligence, automatıon and work. The Economics of Artificial İntelligence: An agenda. University of Chicago Press, 197-236. google scholar
  • Acemoğlu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017a). Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188-2244, Working Paper No. 23285. google scholar
  • Acemoğlu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2019). The wrong kind of AI? Artificial intelligence and the future of labour demand. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 13(1), 25-35. Working Paper No: 25682 google scholar
  • Ash, T.G. & Zimmermann A. (2020, 6 Mayıs). Opınıons, moods and preferences of European cıtızens. Eupinions Brief. Erişim adresi https://eupinions.eu/de/text/in-crisis-europeans-support-radical-positions google scholar
  • BIEN (2017). About basic ıncome. Erişim adresi: www.basicincome.org. google scholar
  • Bianchi, M. & Bobba, M. (2013). Liquidity, rısk, and occupational choices. Review of Economic Studies, 80(2), 491-511. https://doi.org10.1093/restud/rds031 google scholar
  • Blattman, C. & Niehaus, P. (2014, Mayıs/Haziran). Show them the Money. Foreıgn Affairs. Erişim adresi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/show-them-money google scholar
  • Coren, M. (2017, 8 Mayıs). Support for a universal basic income is inching up in Europe. Ouartz. Erişim adresi: https://qz.com/976032/support-for-a-universal-basic-income-is-inching-up-in-europe google scholar
  • Dalıa Reasearch. (2017). The EU’s growing support for basic ıncome. Erişim adresi: https://basicincome.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/DR-2017-survey.pdf google scholar
  • Davala, S., Jhabvala, R., Standing, G., & Mehta, S. K. (2015). Basic income: A transformative policy for India. New York, Bloomsbury Academic. google scholar
  • Derin, G. ve Öztürk, E. (2020). Yapay zekâ psikolojisi ve sanal gerçeklik uygulamaları. Siber Psikoloji, (1), 41-47. google scholar
  • Erdem, B. (2022). Yapay zekânın pazarlamaya etkisi. D. Terzioğlu ve S. Soğukoğlu Korkmaz (Ed), Sosyal bilimlerde disiplinlerarası akademik çalışmalar kitabı içinde (s. 87-99). İstanbul: Eğitim Yayınevi. google scholar
  • Ford, M. (2019). Robotların yükselişi (C. Duran, Çev.). İstanbul: Kronik Kitap. google scholar
  • FRED. (2023a). Nonfarm business Sector: Labor share for all workers. St.Louıs Fed. Erişim adresi: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006173 google scholar
  • FRED. (2023b). Corporate profits after tax (without IVA and CCAdj). St.Louıs Fed. Erişim adresi: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=CP google scholar
  • Geetha, R. & Bhanu, S.R.D. (2018). Recruitment through artificial intelligence: a conceptual study. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 9(7), 63-70. google scholar
  • Grand View Research. (2021). Artificial ıntelligence market size, share & trends analysis report by solution, by technology (Deep learning, machine learning), by end-use, by region, and segment forecasts, 2023 - 2030. Erişim Adresi: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/artificial-intelligence-ai-market google scholar
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  • Hmoud, B. & Laszlo, V. (2019). Will artificial intelligence take over human resources recruitment and selection. Network Intelligence Studies, 7 (13), 21-30. google scholar
  • Hotar, N. (2021). Sosyal politikada yeni ufuklar. Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 12(1), 1-23. google scholar
  • IFR. (2022, 5 Aralık). China overtakes USA in robot density. Erişim adresi: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-overtakes-usa-in-robot-density google scholar
  • IFR. (2023a, 16 Şubat). Top 5 robot trends 2023. Erişim adresi: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/top-5-robot-trends-2023 google scholar
  • IFR. (2023b, 28 Haziran). European union: Industries ınvest heavily in robotics. Erişim adresi: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/eu-industries-invest-heavily-in-robotics google scholar
  • IndustriAll. (2017). The challenge of ındustry 4.0 and the demand for new answers. Second Draft of Internal Working Paper. 1-35. google scholar
  • Jacobson, M. & Filippo O. (2012). Labor’s declining share of income and rising inequality. Economic Commentary, 2012-13, 25. google scholar
  • Julia, K. (2022, 2 Ekim). What ıs a carbon tax: basics. Financıal Times Implementation, Offsets, Erişim adresi: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/carbon-dioxide-tax.asp google scholar
  • Koşar, A. (2022). Robotlar işimizi elimizden alacak mı (2.bs)?. İstanbul: Kor Kitap. google scholar
  • Marica, O. (2016, 4 Haziran). Sighing for paradise to come, The Economist. Erişim adresi: google scholar
  • https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/06/04/sighing-for-paradise-to-come google scholar
  • Marinescu, F. (2022, 24 Ağustos). Basic ıncome - will it cause inflation? evidence from Canada and around the world shows how direct cash can ease the pain of rising costs. UBI Works. Erişim adresi: https://www.ubiworks.ca/blog/basic-income-inflation google scholar
  • Martinelli, L. (2017). Assessing the case for a universal basic ıncome in the UK. Birleşik Krallık: IPR Policy Brief. Institute for Policy Research, University of Bath, Bath. google scholar
  • McKinsey & Company (2020). İşimizin geleceği dijital çağda Türkiye’nin yetenek dönüşümü. Erişim adresi: https://www.mckinsey.com/tr/our-insights/future-of-work-turkey google scholar
  • Misztal, P. (2018). Universal basic income, theory and practice. Managerial Economics. 19(1), 103-116. google scholar
  • Misztal, P. (2019). Unconditional basic income as an instrument for reducing income inequalities. The case of Poland. Acta Oeconomica, 69(1), 63-79 google scholar
  • Murat, G. (2023). Endüstri 4.0’ın işgücü piyasalarına ve sendikalara etkisi. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 13(25), 159-181. google scholar
  • Nettle, D., Johnson, E., Johnson, M., & Saxe, R. (2021). Why has the COVID-19 pandemic increased support for universal basic ıncome?. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00760-7 google scholar
  • Painter, A., & Chris T. (2015). Creative citizen, creative state: the principled and pragmatic case for a universal basic ıncome. London: RSA. google scholar
  • Paul, M., & Underwood, A. (2019, 29 Mayıs). A carbon dividend ıs better than a carbon tax, Basıc Income Today. Erişim adresi: https://basicincometoday.com/a-carbon-dividend-is-better-than-a-carbon-tax/ google scholar
  • Piachaud, D. (2018). Basic income: confusion, claims and choices. Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 26(3), 299-314. https://doi.org/10.1332/175982718X15232797708173 google scholar
  • PwC, (2018, 26 Şubat). Otomasyon sistemleri çalışanları nasıl etkileyecek?. Türkiye’nin Endüstri 4.0 Platformu. Erişim adresi: https://www.endustri40.com/otomasyon-sistemleri-calisanlari-nasil-etkileyecek-pwc-raporu/ google scholar
  • Rakıcı, C. ve Aydoğdu B. C. (2022). Evrensel temel gelir ve uygulanabilirliği üzerine bir değerlendirme. Mali Çözüm Dergisi/Financial Analysis, 32(169), 73-98. google scholar
  • Reedy C. (2017). Kurzweil claims that the singularity will happen by 2045 get ready for humanity 2.0. Futurizm. Erişim adresi: https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045. google scholar
  • Roosma, F. & Van Oorschot W. (2019). Public opinion on basic income: mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision. google scholar
  • Journal of European Social Policy, 30(2), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928719882827 google scholar
  • Sarıipek, D. B. (2021). Covid-19 ve sosyal koruma: temel gelir ekseninde bir değerlendirme. A. Çelik (Ed), Covıd-19 sürecinde Türkiye’de sosyal politika kitabı içinde (s.101-119). Ankara: Orıon Kitapevi. google scholar
  • Sattelberger, J. (2016). Unconditional basic income: an instrument for reducing inequality?. KfW Development Research, (39), 1. google scholar
  • Schwab, K. (2018). Dördüncü sanayi devrimi (Z. Dicleli, Çev.). İstanbul: Optimist Yayın. google scholar
  • Sorenson, S. & Keri G. (2013). How to tackle US employees’ stagnating engagement. ESM. Erişim adresi: https://www.enterpriseengagement.org/articles/content/8312818/how-to-tackle-stagnating-engagement/ google scholar
  • Standing, G. (2015). Why basic ıncome’s emancipatory value exceeds ıts monetary value. Basic Income Studies, 10(2), 193-223. https://doi.org/10.1515/bis-2015-0021 google scholar
  • Standing, G. (2020). Temel gelir (C. Demirdöğdü Çev.). İstanbul: Tellekt Yayın. google scholar
  • Stanford University (2021). Gathering strength, gathering storms: the one hundred year study on artificial ıntelligence (AI100) 2021. Study Panel Report. Erişim adresi: https://ai100.stanford.edu/gathering-strength-gathering-storms-one-hundred-year-study-artificial-intelligence-ai100-2021-study google scholar
  • Stone, P., Brooks, R., Brynjolfsson, E., Calo, R., Etzioni, O., Hager, G., ... & Teller, A. (2022). Artificial intelligence and life in 2030: the one hundred year study on artificial intelligence and Life in 2030. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.06318. google scholar
  • Ummel, K. (2016). Impact of CCL’s proposed carbon fee and dividend policy: a high-resolution analysis of the financial effect on US households. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). google scholar
  • World Bank (2020, 4 Şubat). Exploring universal basic ıncome: a guide to navigating concepts, evidence, and practices. Erişim adresi: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection/publication/exploring-universal-basic-income-a-guide-to-navigating-concepts-evidence-and-practices google scholar
  • World Economic Forum (WEF) (2020). The Future of Jobs Report 2020, Geneva. google scholar
  • Yılmaz, B. (2020). Geleceğin meslekleri. B. Yılmaz (Ed), Çalışma Hayatının Geleceği kitabı içinde (s. 79-123), Ankara: Gazi Kitapevi. google scholar
There are 58 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Labor Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Gökhan Murat 0000-0003-0001-6400

Belemir Şengül 0000-0002-2223-2393

Publication Date December 30, 2023
Submission Date July 21, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 85

Cite

APA Murat, G., & Şengül, B. (2023). Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi(85), 199-213. https://doi.org/10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159
AMA Murat G, Şengül B. Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi. December 2023;(85):199-213. doi:10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159
Chicago Murat, Gökhan, and Belemir Şengül. “Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir”. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, no. 85 (December 2023): 199-213. https://doi.org/10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159.
EndNote Murat G, Şengül B (December 1, 2023) Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi 85 199–213.
IEEE G. Murat and B. Şengül, “Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir”, Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, no. 85, pp. 199–213, December 2023, doi: 10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159.
ISNAD Murat, Gökhan - Şengül, Belemir. “Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir”. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi 85 (December 2023), 199-213. https://doi.org/10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159.
JAMA Murat G, Şengül B. Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi. 2023;:199–213.
MLA Murat, Gökhan and Belemir Şengül. “Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir”. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, no. 85, 2023, pp. 199-13, doi:10.26650/jspc.2023.85.1331159.
Vancouver Murat G, Şengül B. Yapay Zekânın İstihdama Yönelik Etkileri: Bir Sosyal Politika Önlemi Olarak Evrensel Temel Gelir. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi. 2023(85):199-213.