Determining the future trends of safflower plant in Türkiye

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 50 - 57, 15.03.2022

Mustafa Akgün , Erkan Söylemez

https://doi.org/10.31015/jaefs.2022.1.8

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The aim of this study is to reveal the current situation of safflower in Türkiye, to make future forecasts about safflower planting area, production quantity, yield and producer prices. The Double Exponential Smoothing Method was used in time series analysis for future forecasts. The time series used were obtained from FAO and TUIK statistics. Five-year (2022-2026) future projections were made for the planting area, production quantity, and yield using safflower data between 1988-2021. For the producer prices, the data between the years 2004-2021 were used. According to the results of the study, it is forecasted that in the next 5 years, there will be a reduction average of 54 decares of safflower in the planting areas and an average of 515 tons of reduction in the production quantity each year. Producer prices are expected to increase by an average of 20% per year. Although it is predicted that there will be a very small increase in yield for each year, it is predicted that there will be a 2.5% yield increase at the end of 5 years. In order to prevent the decrease in safflower production and to increase production, it is recommended to provide purchase guarantee to producers, to support entrepreneurs, to carry out studies on modern cultivation practices, marketing and promotion.

Keywords

Safflower, Future Forecast, Double Exponential Smoothing Method, Türkiye

References

• Anonymous. (2016). Bazı Tarım ve Gıda Ürünlerinin Piyasa Değişkenlerine Yönelik Öngörüler. Gıda, Tarım ve Hayvancılık Bakanlığı Tarımsal Araştırmalar ve Politikalar Genel Müdürlüğü Yayını (in Turkish).
• Arslan, B., Çakır, H., & Culpan, E. (2019). Yeni Geliştirilen Aspir (Carthamus tinctorius L.) Çeşitlerinin Bazı Özellikleri Bakımından Karşılaştırılması. 2. Uluslararası 19 Mayıs Yenilikçi Bilimsel Yaklaşımlar Kongresi, Samsun (in Turkish).
• Babaoglu, M. (2006). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de aspir bitkisinin tarihi, kullanım alanları ve önemi. Booklet, Trakya Tarımsal Araştırmalar Enstitüsü, Edirne (in Turkish).
• Baydar, H., & Erbas, S. (2016). Line Development Breeding for High Yield, Oil and Oleic Acid Content in Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.). Journal of Field Crops Central Research Institute, 25(2), 155-161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21566/tarbitderg.281888
• Baydar, H., Gokmen, O. Y., & Friedt, W. (2003). Hybrid seed production in safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) following the induction of male sterility by gibberellic acid. Plant Breeding, 122(5), 459-461. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1439-0523.2003.00901.x
• Baydar, H., & Kara, N. (2010). Dry Matter Accumulation in Vegetative and Generative Parts During Growth and Development Periods of Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.). Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Nature and Applied Sciences, 14(2), 148-155.
• Bergman, J. W., & Flynn, C. (2009). Evaluation of oilseed crops for biodiesel production and quality in Montana. Final Report to the Board of Research and Commercialization Technology, Helena MT. Grant Agreement, 706. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1.1.986.5792
• Bergman, J. W., Riveland, N. R., Flynn, C. R., Carlson, G. R., Wichman, D. M., & Kephart, K. D. (2007). Registration of ‘Nutrasaff’ safflower. Journal of Plant Registrations, 1(2), 129-130. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3198/jpr2006.12.0836crc
• Bolat, M., Karabak, S., Tascı, R., Aydogan, A., Kücükcongar, M., Aydogan, M., Tasdan, K., Monis, T., Ozcelik, H., Yılmaz, S., Basbagcı, G., Cıkman, A., Dellal, I., Akbay, C., & Kan, M. (2017). Türkiye’de Yemeklik Dane Baklagillerin Üretim ve Tüketimini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi Projesi Sonuç Raporu (TEAD/16/A15/P01/007). Tarımsal Araştırmalar ve Politikalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara. (in Turkish)
• Bolat, M., Unuvar, F. I., & Dellal, I. (2017). The Determination of Future Trends for Turkey’s Edible Grain Legumes. The Journal of Agricultural Economics Researches, 3(2), 7-18.
• Dajue, L., & Mundel, H. (1996). Safflower, Carthamus Tinctorius L.;Promoting the conservation and use of underutilized and neglected crops. Bioversity International, 1-83.
• Demirbas, A. (2007). Importance of biodiesel as transportation fuel. Energy Policy, 35(9), 4661-4670. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.04.003
• Ekin, Z. (2005). Resurgence of safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) utilization: A global view. Journal of Agronomy, 4(2), 83-87.
• Emongor, V. (2010). Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) the underutilized and neglected crop: A review. Asian Journal of Plant Sciences, 9(6), 299-306.
• Emongor, V., Oagile, O., Phuduhudu, D., & Oarabile, P. (2017). Safflower Production. Botswana University of Agriculture and Natural Resources.
• Eryilmaz, T., Yesilyurt, M. K., Cesur, C., & Gokdogan, O. (2016). Biodiesel production potential from oil seeds in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 58, 842-851. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.172
• FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (10.03.2022), https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
• Gomashe, S. S., Ingle, K. P., Sarap, Y. A., Chand, D., & Rajkumar, S. (2021). Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.): An underutilized crop with potential medicinal values. Annals of Phytomedicine: An International Journal, 10(1). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21276/ap.2021.10.1.26
• Ilkdogan, U. Y., & Olhan, E. (2012). Türkiye’de aspir üretimi için gerekli koşullar ve oluşturulacak politikalar [Unpublished doctoral dissertation]. Ankara University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences (in Turkish).
• Knowles, P. F. (1980). Safflower. Hybridization of Crop Plants, 535-548. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2135/1980.hybridizationofcrops.c38
• Knowles, P. F. (1989). Oil crops of the world: Their breeding and utilization. G. Röbbelen, R. K. Downey, & A. Ashri (Eds.). McGraw-Hill, 363-374.
• Kolsarici, O., Gur, A., Basalma, D., Kaya, D., & Isler, N. (2005). Yağlı tohumlu bitkiler üretimi. Türkiye Ziraat Mühendisliği VI. Teknik Kongresi, 3–7 Ocak (in Turkish).
• Landau, S., Molle, G., Fois, N., Friedman, S., Barkai, D., Decandia, M., Cabiddu, A., Dvash, L. and Sitzia, M. (2005). Safflower (Carthamustinctorius L.) as a novel pasture species for dairy sheep in the Mediterranean conditions of Sardinia and Israel. Small Ruminant Research, 59, 239-249. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smallrumres.2005.05.008
• McPherson, M. A., Good, A. G., Keith C. Topinka, A., & Hall, L. M. (2004). Theoretical hybridization potential of transgenic safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) with weedy relatives in the New World. Canadian Journal of Plant Science, 84(3), 923-934. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4141/P03-150
• Mihaela, P., Josef, R., Monica, N., & Rudolf, Z. (2013). Perspectives of safflower oil as biodiesel source for south Eastern Europe (comparative study: Safflower, soybean and rapeseed). Fuel, 111, 114-119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2013.04.012
• Mishra, V. K., & Goswami, R. (2017). A review of production, properties and advantages of biodiesel. Biofuels, 9(2), 273-289. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2017.1336350
• Mündel, H. H., & Bergman, J. W. (2009). Oil crops. J. Vollmann & I. Rajcan (Eds.). Springer Science & Business Media, 423-447. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77594-4_14
• Mündel, H. H., Riverland, N., & Tanaka, D. L. (1997). Safflower agro-production I: Yield. In A. Corleto & H. H. Mündel (Eds.), Proceedings of the 4th International Safflower Conference Bari, Italy, 2-7 June (pp. 47-55).
• TTSM. (2021). Tescilli Milli Çeşit Listesi (Tarla Bitkisi Çeşitleri) (Field Crops). Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Variety Registration and Seed Certification Center. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/BUGEM/TTSM/Sayfalar/Detay.aspx?SayfaId=85
• TUIK (2022). Turkish Statistical Institute database. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale=tr
• Velasco, L., & Fernández‐Martínez, J. (2004). Registration of CR‐34 and CR‐81 safflower Germplasms with increased tocopherol. Crop Science, 44(6), 2278-2278. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2004.2278
• Weinberg, Z. G., Ashbell, G., Hen, Y., Leshem, Y., Landau, Y. S., & Brukental, I. (2002). A note on ensiling safflower forage. Grass and Forage Science, 57(2), 184-187. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2494.2002.00314.x