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Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 12 - 23, 30.03.2021

Ozlem Demıroglu Elcin Aykac Alp

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1380

Abstract

References

  • Anderson, J. E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation.” American Economic Review 69, 106-116.
  • Anderson, J. E., and van Wincoop, E.. (2003). “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle.” American Economic Review, 93, 170–92.
  • Anderson J. E, and Yotov, Y.V. (2010). “The Changing Incidence of Geography.” American Economic Review 100(5), 2157-2186.
  • Anderson, J. E. (2011). “The Gravity Model”, Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 133-160.
  • Anderson, J. E., and Yotov, Y.V. (2016). “Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002.” Journal of International Economics 99[C], 279-298.
  • Arısoy, B., Bayar, G. and Çalışkan, Ö.. (2003). “Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Denklemleri: Yer Çekimi, Gümrük Birliği ve Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmaları - Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım.” Middle East Technical University International Economy Congress VII.
  • Bacchetta, M., Beverelli, C. Cadot, O. Fugazza, M. Grether, J. M. Helble, M. Nicita, A. and Piermartini, R. (2012). A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis United Nations and World Trade Organization.
  • Baier, S. L., and Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). “Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 71[1], 72-95.
  • Baier, S. L., Bergstrand, J. H. and Feng. M. (2014). “Economic Integration Agreements and the Margins of International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 93, 2, 339–50.
  • Baier, S., J. H. Bergstrand, P. Egger, and McLaughlin, P. (2008). “Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism.” The World Economy 31(5), 461-497.
  • Baier, S.L., Bergstrand, J. H. and Clance, M. (2015). “Heterogeneous Economic Integration Agreement Effects.” CESIFO Working Paper No 5488.
  • Baier, S.L., Yotov, Y. V. and Zylkin, T. (2016). “On the Widely Differing Effects of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons from Twenty Years of Trade Integration.” CESIFO Working Paper No 6174.
  • Baldwin, R., and Taglioni, D. (2006). “Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12516, NBER.
  • Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade, Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 474–81.
  • Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 71: 143–153.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., Baier, S. Sunesen, E. R. and Thelle, M. H. (2011). “Ex-Post Assessment of Six EU Free Trade Agreements, An Econometric Assessment of Their Impact on Trade.” Informed Decisions, Copenhagen Economics.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., Larch, M. and Yotov, Y.V. (2015). “Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in Gravity Equations.” European Economic Review 78, 307-327.
  • Andrew, B. Eaton, J. Jensen, J. B. and Kortum, S. S. (2003) "Plants and Productivity in International Trade." American Economic Review 93(4), 1268-1290.
  • Carrere, C. (2006). “Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model.” European Economic Review 50, 223–247.
  • Cipollina, M., and Salvatici, L. (2010). “Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis.” Review of International Economics 18(1), 63–80.
  • Dai, M., Yotov, Y. V. and Zylkin, T. (2014). “On the Trade-Diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements.” Economics Letters 122(2), 321-325.
  • De Benedicts, Taglioni, L. (2011). “The Gravity Model in International Trade” in De Benedicts, L., Salvatici, L. (Eds), The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies: An Analysis Through Gravity Models. Springer, 55-90 (Chapter 4)
  • Deardorff, A. (1998). “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?.” in The Regionalization of the World Economy, ed. by J.A. Frankel (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 7-31.
  • Eaton, J. and Kortum, S. (2002). “Technology, Geography and Trade.” Econometrica 70, 1741–1779.
  • Egger, P. and Larch, M. (2011). “An Assessment of the Europe Agreements’ Effects on Bilateral Trade, GDP, and Welfare.” European Economic Review 55[2], 263-279.
  • Eicher, T., and Henn, C. (2011). “In Search of WTO Trade Effects: Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly but Unevenly.” Journal of International Economics 83, 137-153.
  • Frede, J., Yetkiner, H.: (2017). The Regional Trade Dynamics of Turkey: A panel data gravity model, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1279205.
  • Head, K., and Mayer, T. (2014). “Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook.” in Gopinath, G., Helpman, E., and Rogoff, K. (eds), Handbook of International Economics Vol. 4, Oxford: Elsevier B. V.
  • Helpman E., and Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Kepaptsoglou, K., Karlaftis, M. G. and Tsamboulas, D. (2010). “The Gravity Model specification for Modelling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year Review of Empirical Studies.” The Open Economics Journal 3, 1-13.
  • Kohl, T. (2014). “Do We Really Know that Trade Agreements Increase Trade?” Review of World Economics 150(3), 443-169.
  • Kohl, T., Brakman, S. and Garretsen, H. (2016). “Do Trade Agreements Stimulate Trade Differently? Evidence From 296 Trade Agreements.” World Economy 39(1), 97-131.
  • Krugman, P., (1980). “Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Patterns of Trade.” American Economic Review 70(5): 950-59.
  • Kütük, M. Akbostancı; E. (2016) Do Regional Trade Agreements Actually Increase Turkey’s Foreign Trade, METU Studies in Development, 43, 257-288
  • Magee, C. (2008). “New Measures of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion.” Journal of International Economics 75(2), 349–362.
  • Meade, J. (1955). The Theory of Customs Unions Amsterdam: North-Holland.
  • Melitz M. J.(2003). “The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity.” Econometrica 1695-1725.
  • Mölders, F., and Volz, U. (2011). “Trade Creation and the Status of FTAs: Empirical Evidence from East Asia.” Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 147(3), 429–456.
  • Özkaya, H. (2011). “İkili ve Çok Taraflı Anlaşmaların Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi.” Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi 12(2), 279-288.
  • Rose, A., and van Wincoop, E. (2001). “National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union.” American Economic Review 91(2): 386–90.
  • Silva, S.J. M. C., and Tenreyro, S.. (2006). “The Log of Gravity.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 88[4], 641-658.
  • Tinbergen J. 196). “An Analysis of World Trade Flows.” Shaping the World Economy” The Twentieth Century Fund, New York: 1-117.
  • Türkcan, K., and Pişkin, E. (2014). “The Effects of The Trade Agreements on The Dynamics of Turkey’s Export: Extensive and Intensive Margins.” MPRA Paper No 59841.
  • Viner, J., 1950. The Customs Union Issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • Yotov, Y.V., Piermartini, R. Monteiro, J. A. and Larch, M. (2016). An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model United Nations and World Trade Organization.
  • Zylkin, T. (2016). “Beyond Tariffs: Quantifying Heterogenity in the Effects of Free Trade Agreements” National University of Singapore Global Production Networks Centre Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Working Paper Series, GPN 2016-006.
  • Zylkin, T. (2017). “PPML_PANEL_SG: Stata Module to Estimate “Structural Gravity” Models via Poisson PML.” https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s458249.htm

EX-POST ASSESSMENT OF HETEROGENOUS EFFECTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 12 - 23, 30.03.2021

Ozlem Demıroglu Elcin Aykac Alp

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1380

Abstract

Purpose -Free trade agreements (FTA) are prominent features of international trade. The proliferation of FTAs over the past 20 years is one of the most prominent aspects of the global economy. Turkey has also signed many FTAs in this period on the basis of obligations stemming from customs union with European Union. FTAs aim to increase trade flows and welfare through liberalizing trade and achieving a deeper integration between partners. In this respect, FTAs are getting more and more important as international trade is a crucial tool to boost the economic development. Indeed, getting the utmost benefit from FTAs is very important for Turkey and other developing countries. Regarding the increasing importance of FTAs, the ex-post effects of FTAs on Turkey’s trade are examined in this paper.
Methodology -In the light of recent techniques, structural gravity model is used in this study. Trade data used consists of aggregate trade flows among pairs of 90 countries from 1988-2016, 29 years in total. As the estimation technique, Ppml_panel_sg command is used. This is an estimation command for Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) regression for panel gravity models with time varying importer and exporter fixed effects and time invariant pair fixed effects.
Findings-The results indicate the econometric evidence of the impact of FTAs on Turkey’s trade. When all FTAs are considered at macro level, the results suggest that, FTAs had a statistically significant positive effect on exports and imports of Turkey. However, at micro level, there is substantial variation and heterogeneity in the agreement specific effects and trade direction specific effects within the agreement.
Conclusion-This paper provides the first evidence that the impact of FTAs are heterogenous and not all the FTAs affected the trade of Turkey in the same positive way. Even within the same agreement, the effects vary considerably depending on the direction of trade.

Keywords

International Trade Free Trade Agreements Gravity Model Heterogeneity

References

  • Anderson, J. E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation.” American Economic Review 69, 106-116.
  • Anderson, J. E., and van Wincoop, E.. (2003). “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle.” American Economic Review, 93, 170–92.
  • Anderson J. E, and Yotov, Y.V. (2010). “The Changing Incidence of Geography.” American Economic Review 100(5), 2157-2186.
  • Anderson, J. E. (2011). “The Gravity Model”, Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 133-160.
  • Anderson, J. E., and Yotov, Y.V. (2016). “Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002.” Journal of International Economics 99[C], 279-298.
  • Arısoy, B., Bayar, G. and Çalışkan, Ö.. (2003). “Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Denklemleri: Yer Çekimi, Gümrük Birliği ve Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmaları - Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım.” Middle East Technical University International Economy Congress VII.
  • Bacchetta, M., Beverelli, C. Cadot, O. Fugazza, M. Grether, J. M. Helble, M. Nicita, A. and Piermartini, R. (2012). A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis United Nations and World Trade Organization.
  • Baier, S. L., and Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). “Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 71[1], 72-95.
  • Baier, S. L., Bergstrand, J. H. and Feng. M. (2014). “Economic Integration Agreements and the Margins of International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 93, 2, 339–50.
  • Baier, S., J. H. Bergstrand, P. Egger, and McLaughlin, P. (2008). “Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism.” The World Economy 31(5), 461-497.
  • Baier, S.L., Bergstrand, J. H. and Clance, M. (2015). “Heterogeneous Economic Integration Agreement Effects.” CESIFO Working Paper No 5488.
  • Baier, S.L., Yotov, Y. V. and Zylkin, T. (2016). “On the Widely Differing Effects of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons from Twenty Years of Trade Integration.” CESIFO Working Paper No 6174.
  • Baldwin, R., and Taglioni, D. (2006). “Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12516, NBER.
  • Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade, Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 474–81.
  • Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 71: 143–153.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., Baier, S. Sunesen, E. R. and Thelle, M. H. (2011). “Ex-Post Assessment of Six EU Free Trade Agreements, An Econometric Assessment of Their Impact on Trade.” Informed Decisions, Copenhagen Economics.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., Larch, M. and Yotov, Y.V. (2015). “Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in Gravity Equations.” European Economic Review 78, 307-327.
  • Andrew, B. Eaton, J. Jensen, J. B. and Kortum, S. S. (2003) "Plants and Productivity in International Trade." American Economic Review 93(4), 1268-1290.
  • Carrere, C. (2006). “Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model.” European Economic Review 50, 223–247.
  • Cipollina, M., and Salvatici, L. (2010). “Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis.” Review of International Economics 18(1), 63–80.
  • Dai, M., Yotov, Y. V. and Zylkin, T. (2014). “On the Trade-Diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements.” Economics Letters 122(2), 321-325.
  • De Benedicts, Taglioni, L. (2011). “The Gravity Model in International Trade” in De Benedicts, L., Salvatici, L. (Eds), The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies: An Analysis Through Gravity Models. Springer, 55-90 (Chapter 4)
  • Deardorff, A. (1998). “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?.” in The Regionalization of the World Economy, ed. by J.A. Frankel (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 7-31.
  • Eaton, J. and Kortum, S. (2002). “Technology, Geography and Trade.” Econometrica 70, 1741–1779.
  • Egger, P. and Larch, M. (2011). “An Assessment of the Europe Agreements’ Effects on Bilateral Trade, GDP, and Welfare.” European Economic Review 55[2], 263-279.
  • Eicher, T., and Henn, C. (2011). “In Search of WTO Trade Effects: Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly but Unevenly.” Journal of International Economics 83, 137-153.
  • Frede, J., Yetkiner, H.: (2017). The Regional Trade Dynamics of Turkey: A panel data gravity model, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1279205.
  • Head, K., and Mayer, T. (2014). “Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook.” in Gopinath, G., Helpman, E., and Rogoff, K. (eds), Handbook of International Economics Vol. 4, Oxford: Elsevier B. V.
  • Helpman E., and Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Kepaptsoglou, K., Karlaftis, M. G. and Tsamboulas, D. (2010). “The Gravity Model specification for Modelling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year Review of Empirical Studies.” The Open Economics Journal 3, 1-13.
  • Kohl, T. (2014). “Do We Really Know that Trade Agreements Increase Trade?” Review of World Economics 150(3), 443-169.
  • Kohl, T., Brakman, S. and Garretsen, H. (2016). “Do Trade Agreements Stimulate Trade Differently? Evidence From 296 Trade Agreements.” World Economy 39(1), 97-131.
  • Krugman, P., (1980). “Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Patterns of Trade.” American Economic Review 70(5): 950-59.
  • Kütük, M. Akbostancı; E. (2016) Do Regional Trade Agreements Actually Increase Turkey’s Foreign Trade, METU Studies in Development, 43, 257-288
  • Magee, C. (2008). “New Measures of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion.” Journal of International Economics 75(2), 349–362.
  • Meade, J. (1955). The Theory of Customs Unions Amsterdam: North-Holland.
  • Melitz M. J.(2003). “The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity.” Econometrica 1695-1725.
  • Mölders, F., and Volz, U. (2011). “Trade Creation and the Status of FTAs: Empirical Evidence from East Asia.” Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 147(3), 429–456.
  • Özkaya, H. (2011). “İkili ve Çok Taraflı Anlaşmaların Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi.” Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi 12(2), 279-288.
  • Rose, A., and van Wincoop, E. (2001). “National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union.” American Economic Review 91(2): 386–90.
  • Silva, S.J. M. C., and Tenreyro, S.. (2006). “The Log of Gravity.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 88[4], 641-658.
  • Tinbergen J. 196). “An Analysis of World Trade Flows.” Shaping the World Economy” The Twentieth Century Fund, New York: 1-117.
  • Türkcan, K., and Pişkin, E. (2014). “The Effects of The Trade Agreements on The Dynamics of Turkey’s Export: Extensive and Intensive Margins.” MPRA Paper No 59841.
  • Viner, J., 1950. The Customs Union Issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • Yotov, Y.V., Piermartini, R. Monteiro, J. A. and Larch, M. (2016). An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model United Nations and World Trade Organization.
  • Zylkin, T. (2016). “Beyond Tariffs: Quantifying Heterogenity in the Effects of Free Trade Agreements” National University of Singapore Global Production Networks Centre Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Working Paper Series, GPN 2016-006.
  • Zylkin, T. (2017). “PPML_PANEL_SG: Stata Module to Estimate “Structural Gravity” Models via Poisson PML.” https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s458249.htm
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ozlem Demıroglu This is me 0000-0002-4000-9486

Elcin Aykac Alp This is me 0000-0001-9076-2102

Publication Date March 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Demıroglu, O., & Alp, E. A. (2021). EX-POST ASSESSMENT OF HETEROGENOUS EFFECTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 10(1), 12-23. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1380

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