Analysis in Terms of Adaptation Hypothesis of the Spatial Relationship Between Migration And Fertility in Turkey

Year 2021, Issue: 64, 47 - 72, 29.12.2021

Derya Bilgin , Sibel Selim

https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861

Abstract

A nation’s population is dependent on the quality and quantity of birth, migration, and death of its citizens. Recently, in Turkey, the increasing number of migrant women and the change in fertility behavior with migration has become a concern. Thus, to understand the socio-economic adaptation process of migrant women and the change in family structures in destination places, it is necessary to analyze the fertility behavior of migrant women. The study of fertility within the economic framework was first proposed by Becker in 1960, and many studies have been carried out since then. In studies examining the relationship between fertility and migration, four hypotheses, namely, adaptation, disruptive effect, selectivity, and socialization hypothesis, came to the fore. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the factors that affect fertility in Turkey using 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey data and to evaluate the effect of internal migration on fertility in terms of the adaptation hypothesis using a robust Poisson regression through count data model. In the analyses, the number of children was taken as a fertility indicator. This study also examined the spatial relationship between migration and fertility by spatial econometrics. The findings suggest that the hypothesis of adaptation can explain the relationship between migration and fertility of women in Turkey.

Keywords

Fertility, Migration, Spatial Econometrics, Robust Poisson Regression Model, Turkey

Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi

Abstract

Ülkelerin nüfusu; doğum, göç ve ölüm nedeniyle nitelik ve nicelik olarak değişen bir olgudur. Özellikle son yıllarda Türkiye’de göç eden nüfus içerisinde kadın sayısının artması ve göç ile birlikte doğurganlık davranışının değişmesi söz konusu olmuştur. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’de göç eden kadınların sosyo-ekonomik olarak uyum sağlama süreci ve göç alan yerlerdeki aile yapılarındaki değişimin anlaşılabilmesi için göç eden kadınların doğurganlık davranışının analiz edilmesi gerekmektedir. Doğurganlığın, ekonomik çerçeve içerisinde ele alınması ilk olarak Becker (1960) tarafından ortaya atılmış ve literatürde birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Doğurganlık ve göç arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çalışmalarda ise adaptasyon, bozucu etki, seçicilik ve sosyalleşme hipotezi olmak üzere dört hipotez ön plana çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2013 yılına ait Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA) verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’de doğurganlığı etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve iç göçlerin doğurganlık üzerine olan etkisinin sayma veri modelleri aracılığıyla Robust Poisson regresyon modeli kullanılarak adaptasyon hipotezi açısından değerlendirilmesidir. Analizlerde doğurganlık göstergesi olarak sahip olunan çocuk sayısı alınmıştır. Ayrıca bu çalışmada, göç ile doğurganlık arasındaki mekansal ilişkinin varlığı mekânsal ekonometri aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de kadınların göç ve doğurganlıkları arasındaki ilişkinin açıklanmasında mekânsal bir ilişkinin varlığı ile birlikte adaptasyon hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

Doğurganlık, Göç, Mekansal Ekonometri, Robust Poisson Regresyon Modeli, Türkiye

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