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KORONAVİRÜS (COVID-19) PANDEMİSİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN BİST FİNANSALLAR SEKTÖR ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Year 2020, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 26 - 41, 30.12.2020

Abstract

İlk olarak Çin’in Wuhan kentinde 2019’un sonlarında ortaya çıkan koronavirüs (Covid-19) hastalığı 11 Mart 2020’de Türkiye’de de tespit edilmiştir. Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün (DSÖ) hastalığı pandemi olarak ilan etmesiyle Türkiye de dahil olmak üzere birçok ülke sosyal, ticari ve mali kısıtlamalarla pandeminin yayılmasını önlemek amacıyla çeşitli kısıtlamalar uygulamıştır. Söz konusu kısıtlamalar ekonomiler üzerinde daraltıcı etkiye neden olmuştur. Her sektörün etkilenme düzeyi faaliyet alanına göre farklılık göstermiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Covid-19 vaka artışlarının Borsa İstanbul’un finansallar sektör endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de hastalığın tespitinden önceki ve sonraki dönemde sektör endeksinin tepkisi 25 Ağustos 2019-20 Eylül 2020 aralığını kapsayan haftalık verilerle yapay değişkenli ekonometrik tahminlerle analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre Covid-19 vaka sayılarının finansallar sektör endeksinin hacmi üzerinde anlamlı sonuçlar bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlara dayanılarak, dünya genelindeki vaka sayılarının finansallar sektör endeksinin hacmi üzerinde oldukça zayıf etkisi bulunurken, Türkiye’deki vaka ve ölüm sayılarının ise finansallar sektör endeksi üzerinde daha güçlü etki yaptığı ifade edilebilir. Benzer şekilde Volatilite Endeksi (Volatility Index-VIX) de endeks hacmi üzerine ters yönlü diğer değişkenlere nispeten güçlü bir etki oluşturduğu belirtilebilir.

References

  • Al-Awadhi, A. M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27( Nisan), 1-5.
  • Atkeson, A. (2020). What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. National Bureau of Economic Research, 26867(Mart), 1-25.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K. J., Sammon, M. C. & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research, 26945(Nisan), 1-22.
  • Bloomberg HT. BIST 100 Koronavirüse Bağlı Nedenlerle Günü Çok Sert Düşüşle Kapattı. https://www.bloomberght.com/bist-100-koronaviruse-bagli-nedenlerle-gunu-cok-sert-dususle-kapatti-2249219 (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.2020).
  • Chen, M. P., Lee, C. C., Lin, Y. H. & Chen, W.Y. (2018). Did the SARS Epidemic Weaken the Integration of Asian Stock Markets? Evidence from Smooth Time_Varying Cointegration Analyisis. Economic Research, 31(1), 908-926.
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D. & Hall, M. C. (2020). Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: A Rapid Assessment of Covid-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1-20.
  • Gürsoy, S., Tunçel, M. B. & Sayar, B. (2020). Koronavirüsün (Covid-19) Finansal Göstergeler Üzerine Etkileri. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 3(1), 20-32.
  • Kandil Göker, İ. E., Eren, B. S. & Karaca, S. S. (2020). The Impact of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on The Borsa Istanbul Sector Index Returns: An Event Study. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2020 Special Issue, 14-41.
  • Kılıç, Y. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77.
  • Liu, H. Y., Manzoor, A., Wang, C. Y., Zhang, L. & Manzoor, Z. (2020) The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 1-19.
  • Morales, L. & Andreosso-O’Callaghan, B. (2020). Covid19: Global Stock Markets “Black Swan” . Critical Letters in Economics & Finance, 1 (2020), 1-14.
  • Nicoll, A. (2011). Plannig For Uncertainty: A European Approach to Informing Responses to the Severity Of Influenza Epidemics And Pandemics. Bulltein of the World Health Organization, 89(7), 469-544.
  • Onali, E. (2020). COVID-19 And Stock Market Volatility. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-24.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development. Global Financial Markets Policy Responses to COVID-19. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/global-financial-markets-policy-responses-to-covid-19-2d98c7e0/ (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2020).
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  • Öztürk, Ö., Şişman, M. Y., Uslu, H. & Çıtak, F. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 Outbreak on Turkish Stock Market: A Sectoral-Level Analysis. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 13(1), 56-68.
  • Qiu, W., Rutherford, S., Mao, A. Y. & Chu, C. (2016-2017). The Pandemic and Its Impacts. Health, Culture and Society, Cilt: 9-10, 3-11.
  • Siu, A. & Wong, Y. C. R. (2004). Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62–83.
  • Şenol, Z. & Zeren, F. (2020). Coronavirus (Covid-19) and Stock Markets: The Effects of the Pandemic on the Global Economy. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(4), 1-16.
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  • T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı. Covid-19 Bilgilendirme Sayfası. https://saglik.gov.tr/ (Erişim Tarihi: 09.08. 2020).
  • Tayar, T., Gümüştekin, E., Dayan, K. &Mandi, E. (2020). Covid-19 Krizinin Türkiye’deki Sektörler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul Sektör Endeks Araştırması. Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Üniversitesi Dergisi, Salgın Hastalıkları Özel Sayı, 293-320. Tr.investing.com. BİST Finansallar (XUMAL). https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-financials-components (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10. 2020).
  • Visual Capitalist. Visualizing the History of Pandemics. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. COVID-19 in China. https://www.who.int/china/emergencies/coronavirus-(covid-19) (Erişim Tarihi: 01.11. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. https://www.who.int/ (Erişim Tarihi: 17.10. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. WHO Director-General’s Opening Remarks at the Media Briefing on COVID-19-11 March 2020. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 (Erişim Tarihi: 24.05. 2020).
  • Worldometer. Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09. 2020).
  • Yetgin, M. A. (2020). Koronavirüsün Borsa İstanbul’a Etkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma ve Stratejik Pandemi Yönetimi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 324-335.
  • Zeren, F. & Hızarcı, A. (2020). TheImpact of Covid-19 Coronavirus on StockMarkets: Evidence From Selected Countries. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 3(1), 78-84.
  • Zhang, D., Hu, M. & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial Markets Under the Global Pandemic of COVID-19. Finance ResearchLetters, 36(101528), 1-6.

THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) PANDEMIC ON TURKEY’S BIST FINANCIALS SECTOR INDEX

Year 2020, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 26 - 41, 30.12.2020

Abstract

Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease, which first appeared in Wuhan, China in late 2019, was also detected in Turkey on March 11, 2020. With the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring the disease a pandemia, many countries, including Turkey, have imposed various restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease through social, commercial and financial constraints. These restrictions have had a narrowing effect on economies. The level of impact of each sector varies according to the field of activity. The aim of this study is to show the effect of the increases in the Covid-19 cases on Borsa İstanbul’s financials sector index. In accordance with this purpose, the reaction of sector index in Turkey before and after the detection of the disease is analyzed by econometric estimates with artificial variables using weekly data from August 25, 2019 to September 20, 2020. According to the estimation results we obtained, significant results were found on the volume of the financials sector index of the Covid-19 case numbers. Based on these results, the effect of the number of cases in the world on the volume of financial sector index were found to be quite weak, conversely the number of cases and deaths in Turkey were found to be more powerful impact on the financial sector index. Similarly, it can be stated that the Volatility Index (VIX) has a strong effect on the index volume compared to other variables in the opposite direction.

References

  • Al-Awadhi, A. M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27( Nisan), 1-5.
  • Atkeson, A. (2020). What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. National Bureau of Economic Research, 26867(Mart), 1-25.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K. J., Sammon, M. C. & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research, 26945(Nisan), 1-22.
  • Bloomberg HT. BIST 100 Koronavirüse Bağlı Nedenlerle Günü Çok Sert Düşüşle Kapattı. https://www.bloomberght.com/bist-100-koronaviruse-bagli-nedenlerle-gunu-cok-sert-dususle-kapatti-2249219 (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.2020).
  • Chen, M. P., Lee, C. C., Lin, Y. H. & Chen, W.Y. (2018). Did the SARS Epidemic Weaken the Integration of Asian Stock Markets? Evidence from Smooth Time_Varying Cointegration Analyisis. Economic Research, 31(1), 908-926.
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D. & Hall, M. C. (2020). Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: A Rapid Assessment of Covid-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1-20.
  • Gürsoy, S., Tunçel, M. B. & Sayar, B. (2020). Koronavirüsün (Covid-19) Finansal Göstergeler Üzerine Etkileri. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 3(1), 20-32.
  • Kandil Göker, İ. E., Eren, B. S. & Karaca, S. S. (2020). The Impact of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on The Borsa Istanbul Sector Index Returns: An Event Study. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2020 Special Issue, 14-41.
  • Kılıç, Y. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77.
  • Liu, H. Y., Manzoor, A., Wang, C. Y., Zhang, L. & Manzoor, Z. (2020) The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 1-19.
  • Morales, L. & Andreosso-O’Callaghan, B. (2020). Covid19: Global Stock Markets “Black Swan” . Critical Letters in Economics & Finance, 1 (2020), 1-14.
  • Nicoll, A. (2011). Plannig For Uncertainty: A European Approach to Informing Responses to the Severity Of Influenza Epidemics And Pandemics. Bulltein of the World Health Organization, 89(7), 469-544.
  • Onali, E. (2020). COVID-19 And Stock Market Volatility. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-24.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development. Global Financial Markets Policy Responses to COVID-19. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/global-financial-markets-policy-responses-to-covid-19-2d98c7e0/ (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2020).
  • Our World in Data. Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus (Erişim Tarihi: 01.11.2020).
  • Öztürk, Ö., Şişman, M. Y., Uslu, H. & Çıtak, F. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 Outbreak on Turkish Stock Market: A Sectoral-Level Analysis. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 13(1), 56-68.
  • Qiu, W., Rutherford, S., Mao, A. Y. & Chu, C. (2016-2017). The Pandemic and Its Impacts. Health, Culture and Society, Cilt: 9-10, 3-11.
  • Siu, A. & Wong, Y. C. R. (2004). Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62–83.
  • Şenol, Z. & Zeren, F. (2020). Coronavirus (Covid-19) and Stock Markets: The Effects of the Pandemic on the Global Economy. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(4), 1-16.
  • T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı. 10 Nisan 2020 Tarihli Duyuru. https://www.icisleri.gov.tr/duyurular (Erişim Tarihi: 17.10. 2020).
  • T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı. Covid-19 Bilgilendirme Sayfası. https://saglik.gov.tr/ (Erişim Tarihi: 09.08. 2020).
  • Tayar, T., Gümüştekin, E., Dayan, K. &Mandi, E. (2020). Covid-19 Krizinin Türkiye’deki Sektörler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul Sektör Endeks Araştırması. Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Üniversitesi Dergisi, Salgın Hastalıkları Özel Sayı, 293-320. Tr.investing.com. BİST Finansallar (XUMAL). https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-financials-components (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10. 2020).
  • Visual Capitalist. Visualizing the History of Pandemics. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. COVID-19 in China. https://www.who.int/china/emergencies/coronavirus-(covid-19) (Erişim Tarihi: 01.11. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. https://www.who.int/ (Erişim Tarihi: 17.10. 2020).
  • World Health Organization. WHO Director-General’s Opening Remarks at the Media Briefing on COVID-19-11 March 2020. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 (Erişim Tarihi: 24.05. 2020).
  • Worldometer. Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09. 2020).
  • Yetgin, M. A. (2020). Koronavirüsün Borsa İstanbul’a Etkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma ve Stratejik Pandemi Yönetimi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 324-335.
  • Zeren, F. & Hızarcı, A. (2020). TheImpact of Covid-19 Coronavirus on StockMarkets: Evidence From Selected Countries. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 3(1), 78-84.
  • Zhang, D., Hu, M. & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial Markets Under the Global Pandemic of COVID-19. Finance ResearchLetters, 36(101528), 1-6.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ahmet Ünlü This is me

Seçkin Kabak This is me

Dilek Tuğlu Dur This is me

Publication Date December 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 1 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Ünlü, A., Kabak, S., & Tuğlu Dur, D. (2020). KORONAVİRÜS (COVID-19) PANDEMİSİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN BİST FİNANSALLAR SEKTÖR ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ. Journal of Economics and Research, 1(2), 26-41.

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