Discharge Estimation by Drainage Area Ratio Method at Some Specific Discharges for 2251 Stream Gauging Station in East Black Sea Basin, Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 22 - 25, 31.08.2019

Fatih Saka Hasan Törehan Babacan

Abstract

Flow duration curves (FDC) showing exceedance probabilities across flow
value frequencies at a specific time can
be used for determining flow values having certain exceedance probability. But
FDC has not been obtained at the place where flow measurements are not existed or insufficient, so discharges
having certain exceedance probabilities have been estimated by different
methods. In this study, drainage area ratio (DAR) method was considered due to obtaining discharge values at ungauged sites
for feasibility studies. Three basins having similar hydrologic characteristics
were chosen for this purpose. Discharges having %3, %20, %30, %50 and %90
exceedance probabilities were selected for the estimation. Three basins are
2251 streamflow gauging station (SGS), 22-88 SGS, and 22-61 SGS in the Black
Sea Basin, Turkey. The 22-88 and 22-61 SGSs are included in the area of 2251
SGS. If discharges having special exceedance probabilities need to be
determined, firstly it is considered to investigate whether the DAR method can
be used. DAR method is mainly depended on a regression analysis between the
project site and the other basins/subbasins which have long-term data. %3, %20, %30, %50 and %90 exceedance probabilities on yearly scale discharges were obtained
from 10 years of data from each SGS. Regression analysis was applied between flow records and drainage
areas of the SGSs. Flows having exceedance probabilities of 3, 20, 30, 50 or 90
percent and their regression equations were analyzed and absolute relative
error of them were investigated. After analysis, determination coefficients of
discharges having %3, %20, %30, %50 and %90 exceedance
probabilities were obtained as 0.898, 0.807, 0.834, 0.782 and 0.892,
respectively. Mean absolute relative errors were 18.88, 7.28, 5.83, 2.14 and
1.53, respectively. According to discharges for the considered exceedance
probabilities, errors can be dangerous level for %3 exceedance probability, but
the other exceedance probabilities, DAR
method can be useful for feasibility studies. Consequently, it has been found
that errors of the DAR method can’t be
convenient for all percent values of exceedance probabilities. Using for higher
discharges having smaller exceedance probabilities can cause more errors.

Keywords

Drainage area ratio method, Flow duration curves, Regression analysis, Discharge estimation, Ungauged basins

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