joeep JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy 2651-5318 Seyfettin ERDOĞAN International Economics (Other) Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer) Asymmetric Effect of Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment: A Nardl Analysis for The Turkish Economy Enflasyonun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Nardl Analizi https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2760-6960 Doğan Okan DİCLE ÜNİVERSİTESİ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6232-4559 Çakmakoğlu Ahmet BİNGÖL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, BİNGÖL SOSYAL BİLİMLER MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU 06 30 2025 10 1 64 79 06 01 2024 03 02 2025 Copyright © 2016, JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy 2016 JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of inflation on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Turkish economy during the period 1984-2022, using the ARDL and NARDL approaches. The findings indicate that the effect of inflation on FDI is asymmetric in both the long run and the short run for the Turkish economy. The estimated NARDL model revealed that the long-run asymmetric inflation coefficients and the real exchange rate and foreign trade deficit variables were statistically significant. These results indicate that a positive shock in the inflation rate has a negative impact on FDI inflows in the long run, while a negative shock in inflation has a positive effect on FDI inflows. Furthermore, the real exchange rate and trade deficit variables are predicted to have a positive and negative effect on FDI inflows, respectively.

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyonun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerine simetrik ve asimetrik etkileri 1984-2022 döneminde, ARDL ve NARDL yaklaşımları kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisi için enflasyonun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerine etkisinin hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde asimetrik olduğunu göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen NARDL modelinde uzun dönem asimetrik enflasyon katsayıları ve kontrol değişkeni olarak ele alınan reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret açığı değişkenleri istatistiksel anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlara göre, enflasyon oranında meydana gelen bir artış uzun dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini olumsuz etkilerken, enflasyonda kaydedilen azalış ise doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerine olumlu etki yapmaktadır. Bununla birlikte reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret açığı değişkenlerinin, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde, sırasıyla, pozitif ve negatif etkilere sahip olduğu öngörülmüştür.

 Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Enflasyon ARDL NARDL Türkiye Foreign Direct Investment Inflation ARDL NARDL Türkiye Adebayo, T., Akinsola, G., Olanrewaju, V., & Abolaji, A. (2020). Does Inflation Asymmetrically Affect Foreign Direct Investment in an Emerging Market? An Application of the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Nardl) Model. EuroEconomica, 39(3), 82-98. Ahn, Y. S., Adji: S., & Willett, T. D. (1998). The effects of inflation and exchange rate policies on direct investment to developing countries. International Economic Journal, 12(1), 95-104. Alshamsi, K. H., & Azam, M. (2015). The impact of inflation and GDP per capita on foreign direct investment: the case of United Arab Emirates. Investment management and financial innovations, 12(3), 132-141. Ang, J. B. (2008). Determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia. Journal of policy modeling, 30(1), 185-189. Aydemir, O., & Genç, E. (2015). Uluslararası sermaye hareketlerinin belirleyicileri, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar kapsamında bir analiz, Türkiye örneği. Optimum ekonomi ve Yönetim bilimleri Dergisi, 2(2), 17-41. Azrak, P., & Wynne, K. (1995). Protectionism and Japanese direct investment in the United States. Journal of Policy Modeling, 17(3), 293-305. Batmaz, T., & Yürük, B. (2023). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz: ARDL Sınır Testi (1990-2020). Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(1), 99-124. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 37(2), 149-163. Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investments: Sensitivity analyses of cross‐country regressions. Kyklos, 54(1), 89-114. Cheng, L. K., & Kwan, Y. K. (2000). What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience. Journal of international economics, 51(2), 379-400. Cushman, D. O. (1985). Real exchange rate risk, expectations, and the level of direct investment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(2), 297-308. Çiftci, F., & Yıldız, R. (2015). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi. Business & Economics Research Journal, 6(4), 71-95. Çoban, O., & Yussif, A. R. (2019). Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and inflation: ARDL models approach for the case of Ghana. Eurasian Research Journal, 1(2), 7-23. Çütçü, İ., & Kan, E. (2018). Doğrudan yabanci sermaye yatirimlarini etkileyen faktörler: Türkiye Örneği. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 7(3), 1-21. Demir, A., Şahinoğlu, T., & Ersungur: M. (2021). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerine etkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi açısından değerlendirme. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 25(4), 1396-1419. Demirhan, E., & Masca, M. (2016). Determinants of foreign direct investment flows to developing countries: a cross-sectional analysis. Prague Economic Papers 2008, 17(4), 356-369. Dufrénot, G., & Yehoue, E. B. (2005). Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis. IMF Working Paper, 05(164), 1-38. Dunning, J. H. (1980). Toward an eclectic theory of international production: Some empirical tests. Journal of international business studies, 11(1), 9-31. Emir, M., Uysal, M., & Doğru, B. (2013). Ülkenin Risklilik Durumu ile Ülkeye Gelen Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Atatürk University Journal Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 27(2), 79–92. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. Feldstein, M. (1982). Inflation, capital taxation, and monetary policy. In: Robert E. Hall (Ed.), Inflation: Causes and Effects (p.153-168). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Feldstein, M. (2000). Aspects of Global Economic Intergration: Outlook for the Future. NBER Working Paper, No.7899. Froot, K. A., & Stein, J. C. (1991). Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: an imperfect capital markets approach. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(4), 1191-1217. Gao, R., De Vita, G., Luo, Y., & Begley, J. (2021). Determinants of FDI in producer services: evidence from Chinese aggregate and sub-sectoral data. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(4), 869-892. Ha, J., Kose, M. A., & Ohnsorge, F. (2018). Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies. Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks. Hara, M., & Razafimahefa, I. (2005). The determinants of foreign direct investments into Japan. Kobe University economic review, 51(1), 21-34. Hong, T. Y., & Ali, D. H. A. (2020). The impact of inflation towards foreign direct investment in Malaysia and Iran. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 10(6), 210-216. IMF. (2009). Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Sixth Edition. Washington: International Monetary Fund, Publication. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. Kanodia, N. K., Mohapatra, D. R., & Jena, P. R. (2023). Nexus between economic factors and FDI equity inflows: a causality analysis in ARDL approach. Vilakshan-XIMB Journal of Management, 21(1), 91–104. Kaya, V. & Yılmaz, Ö. (2003). Türkiye'de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri: 1970-2000. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(3-4), 39-56. Kerner, A. (2014). What we talk about when we talk about foreign direct investment. International Studies Quarterly, 58(4), 804-815. Koyuncu, F., T. (2010). Türkiye’de Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Doğrudan Yabanci Sermaye Yatirimlari Üzerindeki Etkisinin Yapisal Var Analizi: 1990-2009 Dönemi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 55-62. Kumar, R., & Rani, P. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment. Internatıonal Journal Of Multidisciplinary Educatıonal Research, 3(1), 255-272. Labonte, M. (2010). Inflation: Causes, costs, and current status. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. https://www.policyarchive.org/download/962_Previous_Version_2008-05-06.pdf Mostafa, M. M. (2020). Impacts of inflation and exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Bangladesh. International Journal of Science and Business, 4(11), 53-69. Okafor, H. O. (2012). Do domestic macroeconomic variables matter for foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. Research journal of finance and accounting, 3(9), 55-67. Omankhanlen, A. E. (2011). The effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Annals of “Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati Fascicle I. Economics and Applied Informatics Omankhanlen, A. E. (2011). The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria. Directory of Open Access Journals, 1(1), 5-16. Onyeiwu:, & Shrestha, H. (2004). Determinants of foreign direct investment in Africa. Journal of developing societies, 20(1-2), 89-106. Orr, J. (1991). The trade balance effects of foreign direct investment in US manufacturing. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 16(2), 63-76. Özcan, B., & Ayşe, A. (2010). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: OECD Örneği. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, 12(1), 65-88. Patterson, M. N. K., Montanjees, M. M., Motala, M. J., & Cardillo, C. (2004). Foreign direct investment: trends, data availability, concepts, and recording practices. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Schneider, F., & Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World development, 13(2), 161-175. Sekmen, F., & Gökırmak, H. (2020). Inflation and foreign direct investment in Turkey. Applied Econometrics, 60(1), 70-79. Silveira, E. M. C., Samsonescu, J. A. D., & Triches, D. (2017). The determinants of foreign direct investment in Brazil: Empirical analysis for 2001-2013: Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira, Jorge Augusto Dias Samsonescu and Divanildo Triches. Cepal Review, 2017(121), 171-184. Shahzad, A., & Al-Swidi, A. K. (2013). Effect of macroeconomic variables on the FDI inflows: The moderating role of political stability: An evidence from Pakistan. Asian Social Science, 9(9), 270-279. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In Springer eBooks, 281–314. Susam, N. (2008). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki gelişmeler ve bu yatırımlar için belirleyici unsurlar: Türkiye bulguları. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 3(2), 43-67. Romer, C., D., and Romer, D., H. (1998). Monetary policy and the well-being of the poor. NBER Working Paper, No. 6793. Tarı, R., & Bıdırdı, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Temel Belirleyicileri: 1990-2006 Dönemine İlişkin Ekonometrik Analiz. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(1), 253-268. Tsaurai, K. (2018). Investigating the impact of inflation on foreign direct investment in Southern Africa. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 14(4), 597-611. UNCTAD. (2007). World Investment Report 2007: Transnational Corporations, Extractive Industries and Development. New York: United Nations Publications. UNCTAD. (2023). World Investment Report 2023: Investing in sustainable energy for all. New York: United Nations Publications. Uzgören, E., & Akalın, G. (2016). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri: Ardl Sinir Testi Yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 49(1), 63-77. Valli, M., & Masih, M. (2014). Is there any causality between inflation and FDI in an ‘inflation targeting’ regime? Evidence from South Africa. MPRA Paper, No. 60246. Vasileva, I. (2018). The effect of inflation targeting on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. Atlantic Economic Journal, 46(1), 459-470. Wang, Z. Q., & Swain, N. J. (1995). The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 131(2), 359-382. World Bank. (2020). Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020: Rebuilding Investor Confidence in Times of Uncertainty. Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks. World Bank. (2022). Turkey Economic Monitor February 2022: Sailing Against the Tide. Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks. Xaypanya, P., Rangkakulnuwat, P., & Paweenawat: W. (2015). The determinants of foreign direct investment in ASEAN: The first differencing panel data analysis. International Journal of Social Economics, 42(3), 239-250. Yapraklı: (2006). Türkiye'de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(2), 23-48. Yol, M. A., & Teng, N. T. (2009). Estimating the domestic determinants of foreign direct investment flows in Malaysia: Evidence from cointegration and error-correction model. Jurnal Pengurusan, 28(1), 3-22.