Forecasting of Istanbul's Clean Water Consumption With Fuzzy Time Series Approaches

Year 2012, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 1 - 11, 15.08.2012

Faruk Alpaslan Özge Cağcağ Damla İlter Fakhourı Ufuk Yolcu

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of water consumption is very important for planning and managing water sources during now that the global warming and climale change have distinctly appeared. While the classic methods have been frequently used for the forecasting of water consumption in the literature, fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks have also been among the efficiently used methods over the last years. Since conventional estimation methods require several assumptions, methods such as fuzzy logic and artificial networks are utilized to obtain more efficient and better results in the recent years. In this study, forecasting the quantity of Istanbul water consumption with various fuzzy time series approaches is aimed, and the results are evaluated.

Keywords

Fuzzy time series, Forecasting, Water consumption

İstanbul Temiz Su Tüketiminin Bulanık Zaman Serisi Yaklaşımları ile Öngörüsü

Abstract

Su tüketiminin doğru öngörülmesi, iklim değişikliklerinin son derece yoğun hissedildiği günümüzde, kısıtlı su kaynaklarının planlanması ve yönetimi açısından büyük önem arz etmektedir. Literatürde, su tüketim öngörüsünde, klasik yöntemler kullanılırken, bulanık mantık ve yapay sinir ağları da son zamanlarda etkin bir şekilde kullanılan yöntemler arasındadır. Tahminde kullanılan klasik yöntemlerin birçok varsayım içermesi nedeniyle, son yıllarda etkin ve daha iyi sonuçlar elde etmek için bulanık mantık ve yapay sinir ağları gibi yöntemlerden yararlanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada İstanbul su tüketiminin miktarı çeşitli bulanık zaman serisi yöntemleri ile öngörülmesi amaçlanarak elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

Bulanık zaman serileri, Öngörü, Su tüketimi

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