Research Article
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Year 2021, Volume 7, Issue 2, 77 - 84, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617

Abstract

References

  • Akadiri, S. Saint, Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43(August 2019), 273–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
  • Asgary, A., & Ozdemir, A. I. (2020). Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey. Quality and Quantity, 54(5–6), 1513–1536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00902-9
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G. S., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997–1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring geopolitical risk. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1222).
  • Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M., & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39(2018), 166–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.04.004
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45(April), 23–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072
  • Eilat, Y., & Einav, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: A three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics, 36(12), 1315–1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897
  • Endo, K. (2006). Foreign direct investment in tourism - Flows and volumes. Tourism Management, 27(4), 600–614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.02.004
  • Ghalia, T., Fidrmuc, J., Samargandi, N., & Sohag, K. (2019). Institutional quality, political risk and tourism. Tourism Management Perspectives, 32(September), 100576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100576
  • Granger, C. W., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. U of California, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
  • Hatemi-j, Abdulnasser (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456. Https://www.policyuncertainty.com/monetary.html
  • Kozak, M. (2007). Tourist harassment. A Marketing Perspective. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(2), 384–399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2006.10.003
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Akadiri, S. Saint. (2020). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, (May 2020), 26–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C. (2003) Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089. Lee, J. ve Strazıcıch, M. C. (2004) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break, Appalachian State University Working Papers, 4(17), 1-15.
  • Manaliyo, J. C., & Muzindutsi, P. (2016). Effect of Political Risk Shocks on Tourism Revenue in South Africa: Time Series Analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8(2), 169–186.
  • Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power, Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554. Onur, O. (2020). The influence of stock market returns on the ratio of Equıty in mutual funds portfolio: causality analysis. International Journal of Economics, Politics, Humanities & Social Sciences, 3(1), 24-35.
  • Özcan, B. (2012). Is unemployment hysterisis hypothesis valid for oecd countries? The analysis of unit root tests with structural breaks, Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, (40), 95-117.
  • Phillips, P. CB & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Slevitch, L., & Sharma, A. (2008). Management of perceived risk in the context of destination choice. International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Administration, 9(1), 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480801910574
  • Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75(June), 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Analyzıng The Unemployment Hysteresis For Turkey Under Structural Breaks, Dogus University Journal, 10(2), 324-335.
  • Yılancı, V. & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). “Price and Trade Volume Relationship in Turkish Stock Market: A Time-Varying Asymmetric Causality Analysis”. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 211-220.

Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

Year 2021, Volume 7, Issue 2, 77 - 84, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617

Abstract

This study aims to explore the effects of geopolitical risk on the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) tourism index and tourist arrivals. The effects of the geopolitical risk index on the BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals were analyzed based on the data between January 1998 and October 2020, and the findings were presented. Time series analysis methods were used in the study. To investigate the relationship between variables, it was first tested whether the series of variables are stationary or not. Then, Lee-Strazicich unit root test was applied, considering the structural breaks. Finally, the causality relationship between variables and the direction of this relationship was determined by the Hatemi-J causality test. According to the findings, there is an asymmetrical relationship between Turkey's geopolitical risks with BIST tourism index. The increase in Turkey's geopolitical risks, causes a significant decrease in tourism BIST returns. Likewise, when the risk decreases, BIST tourism returns increase. On the other hand, the reduction of geopolitical risk in Turkey causes an increase in tourist arrivals.

References

  • Akadiri, S. Saint, Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43(August 2019), 273–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
  • Asgary, A., & Ozdemir, A. I. (2020). Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey. Quality and Quantity, 54(5–6), 1513–1536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00902-9
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G. S., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997–1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring geopolitical risk. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1222).
  • Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M., & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39(2018), 166–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.04.004
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45(April), 23–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072
  • Eilat, Y., & Einav, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: A three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics, 36(12), 1315–1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897
  • Endo, K. (2006). Foreign direct investment in tourism - Flows and volumes. Tourism Management, 27(4), 600–614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.02.004
  • Ghalia, T., Fidrmuc, J., Samargandi, N., & Sohag, K. (2019). Institutional quality, political risk and tourism. Tourism Management Perspectives, 32(September), 100576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100576
  • Granger, C. W., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. U of California, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
  • Hatemi-j, Abdulnasser (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456. Https://www.policyuncertainty.com/monetary.html
  • Kozak, M. (2007). Tourist harassment. A Marketing Perspective. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(2), 384–399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2006.10.003
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Akadiri, S. Saint. (2020). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, (May 2020), 26–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C. (2003) Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089. Lee, J. ve Strazıcıch, M. C. (2004) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break, Appalachian State University Working Papers, 4(17), 1-15.
  • Manaliyo, J. C., & Muzindutsi, P. (2016). Effect of Political Risk Shocks on Tourism Revenue in South Africa: Time Series Analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8(2), 169–186.
  • Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power, Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554. Onur, O. (2020). The influence of stock market returns on the ratio of Equıty in mutual funds portfolio: causality analysis. International Journal of Economics, Politics, Humanities & Social Sciences, 3(1), 24-35.
  • Özcan, B. (2012). Is unemployment hysterisis hypothesis valid for oecd countries? The analysis of unit root tests with structural breaks, Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, (40), 95-117.
  • Phillips, P. CB & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Slevitch, L., & Sharma, A. (2008). Management of perceived risk in the context of destination choice. International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Administration, 9(1), 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480801910574
  • Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75(June), 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Analyzıng The Unemployment Hysteresis For Turkey Under Structural Breaks, Dogus University Journal, 10(2), 324-335.
  • Yılancı, V. & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). “Price and Trade Volume Relationship in Turkish Stock Market: A Time-Varying Asymmetric Causality Analysis”. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 211-220.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Hospitality Leisure Sport and Tourism
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Mehmet POLAT (Primary Author)
Kahramanmaras Sütcü Imam University
0000-0002-5591-5422
Türkiye


Yaşar ALPTÜRK
KAHRAMANMARAŞ SÜTÇÜ İMAM ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0003-0063-4479
Türkiye


Samet GÜRSOY
BURDUR MEHMET AKİF ERSOY ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0003-1020-7438
Türkiye

Publication Date July 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021, Volume 7, Issue 2

Cite

APA Polat, M. , Alptürk, Y. & Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey . Journal of Tourism Theory and Research , 7 (2) , 77-84 . DOI: 10.24288/jttr.926617

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