Consolidation of Time Series Models for the Prediction of XUTEK Index and Technology Stocks in Istanbul Stock Exchange during Pandemic Period

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 167 - 177, 30.11.2022

Zeynep Hilal Kilimci

https://doi.org/10.34088/kojose.1069352

Abstract

Due to the closure experienced during the pandemic, many investors divert their investments to different exchanges. In this sense, it has been observed that while sectors such as transportation, banking, and services have seriously lost value, especially the technology sector has come forward and gained value. In this research, we move the study one step forward by proposing a consolidated forecast system instead of employing a model to estimate the price of the Istanbul Stock Exchange Technology Index (XUTEK) which consists of 19 technology companies traded in BIST, and technology stocks. Stock movements during the pandemic period between 01.01.2020 and 01.09.2020, when technology stocks gained considerable value, are investigated to estimate the price of XUTEK. For each technology stock and XUTEK index, five different time series models are modeled namely, Holt’s linear trend, simple exponential smoothing, Holt–Winter’s additive, Holt–Winter’s multiplicative, and ARIMA. After that, five different time series models are consolidated with six diverse consolidation methods, namely, SA, SATA, MB, VB, VBP2 and VBP3 in order to get a more robust stock price prediction model. Experiment results demonstrate that the utilization of the VBP2 consolidation technique presents remarkable results with 2.6903 of MAPE for estimating the price of the XUTEK index and 19 technology stocks.

Keywords

Decision Consolidation, Istanbul Stock Exchange, Stock Prediction, Time Series Analysis, XUTEK Index Forecast

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