ksu j. agric nat. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi 2619-9149 Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1329540 Agricultural Policy Tarım Politikaları Per Capita Meat Consumption: The Trend and Macroeconomic Determinants in Nigeria Kişi Başına Et Tüketimi: Nijerya'daki Trend ve Makroekonomik Belirleyiciler https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0458-028X Akpan Sunday Akwa Ibom State University, Mkpat-Enin https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4550-4320 Udoh Edet University of Uyo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7035-7978 Nkanta Veronica S. University of Uyo 08 15 2024 27 4 972 983 07 20 2023 01 18 2024 Copyright © 1997, Journal Of Agriculture and Nature 1997 Journal Of Agriculture and Nature

This study examined trends in per capita consumption of game meat, mutton, pork, and total meat and provided evidence of their correlation with key macroeconomic factors in Nigeria. Data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the World Bank (WB) covering the period 1981-2021 were analyzed. The results showed that game meat, mutton, pork, and total meat consumption per capita recorded annual exponential growth rates of -0.87%, 2.05%, 2.08%, and -0.54%, respectively. The empirical results showed that the inflation rate, nominal exchange rate, GDP per capita, credit to the agricultural sector, and the capacity utilization rate in the meat industry influence the per capita consumption of game meat, mutton, pork, and the total meat consume in both the short and long-run periods. To increase the per capita meat consumption in the country, it is strongly recommended that appropriate macroeconomic measures should be adopted to reduce the current inflation rate and the nominal exchange rate (N/$). At the same time, concerted efforts should be made to increase Nigerians purchasing power through an increase in the per capita GDP.

Bu çalışma, av eti, koyun eti, domuz eti ve toplam etin kişi başına tüketimindeki eğilimleri incelemiş ve bunların Nijerya'daki temel makroekonomik faktörlerle korelasyonuna dair kanıtlar sağlamıştır. Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü (FAO), Nijerya Merkez Bankası (CBN) ve Dünya Bankası'nın (WB) 1981-2021 dönemini kapsayan verileri analiz edildi. Sonuçlar, kişi başına av eti, koyun eti, domuz eti ve toplam et tüketiminin sırasıyla -%0,87, %2,05, %2,08 ve -%0,54 oranında yıllık üstel büyüme oranları kaydettiğini gösterdi. Ampirik sonuçlar enflasyon oranının, nominal döviz kurunun, kişi başına düşen GSYH'nin, tarım sektörüne verilen kredinin ve et endüstrisindeki kapasite kullanım oranının her iki ülkede de kişi başına av eti, koyun eti, domuz eti tüketimini ve toplam et tüketimini etkilediğini göstermiştir. kısa ve uzun vadeli dönemler. Ülkede kişi başına et tüketiminin artırılması amacıyla, mevcut enflasyon oranının ve nominal döviz kurunun (N/$) düşürülmesine yönelik uygun makroekonomik önlemlerin alınması önemle tavsiye edilmektedir. Aynı zamanda kişi başına düşen GSYİH'yi artırarak Nijeryalıların satın alma gücünü artırmak için ortak çaba sarf edilmelidir.

 Meat Trend Macroeconomic Nigeria Et Akım Makro ekonomi Nijerya Agboola, M. O., & Balcilar, M. (2012). Impact of Food Security on Urban Poverty: A Case Study of Lagos State, Nigeria. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 65, 1225-1229. Akinsulu, A. A., Ajijola, S., Odetola, S. K., & Awoyemi, D. O. (2019). Factors Influencing Meat Consumption in Ijebu-North Local Government Area of Ogun States, Nigeria. Journal of Marketing and Consumer Research, 52, 10-16. DOI: 10.7176/JMCR. Akpan, S. B. (2019). Oil palm fruit supply function in Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture, 31(3), 11–26. Akpan, S. B. (2022a). Contribution of the crop sub-sectors performance to the economic development of Nigeria: the ARDL model approach. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 22(4), 39–48. Akpan, S. B. (2022b). Trends in major ruminant meats production and the roles of the macroeconomic environment in Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 22(4), 49–62. Akpan, S. B., & Monday I. (2021). Factors Productivity in small scale upland Vegetable Production in the South-South region of Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 21(1), 35–45. Akpan, S. B., & Nkanta, V. S. (2022). Trend Analysis and Macroeconomic Variable Determinants of Egg Production in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Production, 3(2), 100-109. Akpan, S. B., & Okon, U. E. (2019). Vegetable Consumption Paradox: Has Domestic Consumption Match the International Recommended Minimum Standard in Nigeria? International Journal of Advances in Agriculture Sciences, 4(3), 1–7. Akpan, S. B., & Udo, U. J. (2021). Indigenous meat and milk gross production indexes and the dynamic macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria: ARDL model approach. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 21(3), 97–110. Akpan, S. B., & Umoren, A. A. (2021). Agricultural production indicators and the dynamic macroeconomic variables in Nigeria: ARDL model approach. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 21(3), 111–124. Akpan, S. B., & Ebong, V. O. (2021). Agricultural land use and population growth in Nigeria. The need for synergy for sustainable agricultural production. Journal Agribusiness and Rural Development, 61(3), 269–278. http://dx.doi.org/10.17306/J.JARD. 2021.01424. Akpan, S. B., Edet J. Udoh, Ini-mfon V. Patrick, & Udoro J. Udo (2014). Seasonal Festive Periods and Meat Price Transmission and Market Integration in Akwa Ibom State, Southern Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, 3(4), 331–364. Akpan, S. B., Ini-mfon V., Glory E., & Daniel E. (2012). Agricultural Productivity and Macro-economic Variable Fluctuation in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(8), 114–125. Akpan, S. B., Samuel J. Udoka, & Inimfon V. Patrick (2015). Roles of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Diversification in Nigeria. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 7(2), 77–93. DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2015.77.93. Akpan, S. B., Udoka, S. J., & Patrick, I. V. (2021). Agricultural Sub Sectors’ Outputs and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Implication for Agricultural Production Intensification. AKSU Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 5(1), 56–68. Arowolo, O. V., Oladejo, J. A., Oguntoye, T. O., Kabir, G. B., & Salako, B. A. (2021). Analysis of Meat Consumption Pattern in Ogbomoso North Local Government Area, Oyo State, Nigeria. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage., 25(4), 555–559. Babatunde, R. O., & Qaim, M. (2010). Impact of off-farm income on food security and nutrition in Nigeria. Food Policy, 35(4), 303–311. Bamaiyi, P. H. (2013). Factors Militating against Animal Production in Nigeria. International Journal of Livestock Research, 3(2), 54–66. Baskhron, R., Khalifa, A., Al-Sharqawi, S., & Al-Rasul, A. (2019). Production and consumption of red and white meat in Egypt. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 10(12), 651–656. https://www.academia.edu/42795463/. Betru, S., & Kawashima, H. (2009). Pattern and determinants of meat consumption in urban and rural Ethiopia. Livestock Research for Rural Development, 21, Article #143. Retrieved July 9, 2022, from http://www.lrrd.org/lrrd21/9/betr 21143. htm. Ecker, O., & Hatzenbuehler, P. L. (2022). Food consumption–production response to agricultural policy and macroeconomic change in Nigeria. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 44(2), 982–1002. DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13161. Egwaikhide, F. O. (1997). Import Substitution Industrialization in Nigeria: A Selective Review. The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 39(2), 183–204. Ejedegba, R. U. (2023). Macroeconomic Instability, Policy Uncertainty, and Investment Performance: The case of Nigeria. International Review of Economics & Finance, 83, 1–17. Elegbede, V. A., Afolami, C. A., & Oyedepo, E. O. (2018). Determinants of meat consumption among students of the Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Ogun State Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics (NJAE), 8(1), 127–136. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–276. FAO. (2019). The future of livestock in Nigeria. Opportunities and challenges in the face of uncertainty, African Sustainable Livestock, 2050, Rome. Fatimah, M. A., Azharia, A. E., & Ishtiag, F. A. (2022). Nexus of Macroeconomic Indicators and Meat Consumption in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Approach. Universal Journal of Agricultural Research, 10(3), 240–248. DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2022.100306. Federal Ministry of Environment Document (2021). Retrieved on the 19th of February 2022 at: https://environment.gov.ng/. James, M., Glynn, T., & Ted, S. (2009). U.S. Beef Demand Drivers and Enhancement Opportunities: A Research Summary, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Available at www.agmanager.info. Kanayo, O., Nancy, S., & Maurice, O. U. (2013). A Review of Value Added in Nigeria’s Pre and Post–SAP Agricultural Sector: Background and Issues. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(1), 44–56. Mekonnen, D. A., Trijsburg, L., Achterbosch, T., Brouwer, I., Kennedy, G., Linderhof, V., Ruben, R., & Talsma, E. F. (2021). Food consumption patterns, nutrient adequacy, and the food systems in Nigeria. Agricultural and Food Economics, 9(16). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-021-00188-2. National Population Commission document (2023). Retrieved on the 19th of May 2022 at: https://www.nationalpopulation.gov.ng/. Odetokun, S. M., Borokinni, B. O., Bakare, S. D., Ghali-Mohammed, I., & Alhaji, N. B. (2021). A Cross-Sectional Survey of Consumers’ Risk Perception and Hygiene of Retail Meat: A Nigerian Study. Food Protection Trends, 41(3), 274–283. Odoemena, K. G., Walters, J. P., & Kleemann, H. M. (2020). A System Dynamics Model of Supply-Side Issues Influencing Beef Consumption in Nigeria. Sustainability, 12(3241), 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12083241. OECD/FAO. (2019). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en. OECD/FAO. (2021a). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en. OECD/FAO. (2021b). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/19428846-en. Ogbeide, O. A. (2015). Meat Industry Development in Nigeria: Implications of the Consumers’ Perspective. Mayfair Journal of Agribusiness Management, 1(1), 59–75. Ogbonna, B. C. (2012). Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria: An Empirical Assessment. Journal of Banking, 6(1), 19–40. Ojiako, I. A., & Olayode, G. O. (2008). Analysis of trends in livestock production in Nigeria: 1970-2005. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research (JASR), 8(1), 114–120. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2023), Meat consumption (indicator). doi: 10.1787/fa290fd0-en (Accessed on 15 June 2023). Osazuwa-Peters, M. (2021). The local contexts of meat consumption: analyzing gratification in Nigeria. Food, Culture & Society, 24(5), 712–730. DOI: 10.1080/15528014.2021.1936788. Reardon, T., Tschirley, D., Liverpool-Tasie, L. S., Awokuse, T., Fanzo, J., Minten, B., Vos, R., Dolislager, M., Sauer, C., Dhar, R., Vargas, C., Lartey, A., Raza, A., & Popkin, B. M. (2021). The processed food revolution in African food systems and the double burden of malnutrition. Global Food Security, 28, 100466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs. 2020.100466. Simo-Kengne, B. D., Dikgang, J., & Ofstad, S. P. (2018). Effect of marine protected areas and macroeconomic environment on meat consumption in SEAFO countries. Agric Econ 6, 12, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-018-0105-5. Udah, S. C., Nwachukwu, I. N., & Akpan, S. B. (2015). Performance Evaluation of Various Policy Regimes Towards Agricultural Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, 3(2), 57–63. Udah, S. C., Nwachukwu, I. N., Nwosu, A. C., Mbanasor, J., & Akpan, S. B. (2015a). Determinants of Agricultural Export Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 3(3), 105–109. Udah, S. C., Nwachukwu, I. N., Nwosu, A. C., Mbanasor, J. A., & Akpan, S. B. (2015c). Analysis of Contribution of Various Agricultural Subsectors to Growth in Nigeria's Agricultural Sector. International Journal of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 3(3), 80–86. Udoh, E. J., & Akpan, S. B. (2019). Macroeconomic variables affecting fish production in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 9(2216–2230). Williams, T. O. (1989). Livestock development in Nigeria: A survey of the policy issues and options. Network Paper No. 21, International Livestock Centre for Africa (ILCA), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.