Research Article
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EXAMINING THE CAUSAL NEXUS BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS AND TERRORISM IN EMERGING COUNTRIES

Year 2018, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 925 - 933, 27.12.2018
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.442966

Abstract

The
aim of the paper is to analyze the causal nexus between tourist arrivals and
terrorism. In this paper, unlike other studies, we used the Global Terrorism
Index (GTI) prepared by the Institute for Economics & Peace for the
determination of terrorism level of a country. For more unbiased and robust
estimates, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) method is employed to examine the causal
nexus between tourist arrivals and terrorism in thirteen emerging countries cover
the period 2006-2016. The results indicated that there is a one-way causality
running from terrorism to tourist arrivals. Results suggest that emerging
country authorities should increase security precautions to ensure that
tourists feel safe and in order to attract more tourists, ceteris paribus.

References

  • BALTAGI, B.H., FENG, Q., KAO, C. (2012), A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Journal of the Econometrics, 170: 164-177.
  • CELIK, N., KARACUKA, M. (2017), Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz, Ege Academic Review, 17(3): 313-322.
  • DOGRU, T., BULUT, U. (2017), Is Tourism an Engine For Economic Recovery? Theory and Empirical Evidence, Tourism Management, 67: 425-434.
  • DRAKOS, K., KUTAN, A. M. (2003), Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47: 621-641.
  • DUMITRESCU, E. I., HURLIN, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels, Economic Modeling, 29(4): 1450-1460.
  • ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T. (1991), Causality between Transnational Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Spain, Terrorism, 14: 49-58.
  • ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T., PARISE, G. P. (1992). An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism, Kyklos, 45: 531-54.
  • FERIDUN, M. (2011), Impact of Terrorism on Tourism in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Applied Economics, 43(24): 3349-3354.
  • FLEISCHER, A., BUCCOLA, S. (2002), War, Terror, and The Tourism Market in Israel, Applied Economics, 34, 1335-1343.
  • GUVENEK, B., ALPTEKIN, V. (2015), Turistlere Yönelik Terör Saldırılarının Turizme Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 17(1): 21-38.
  • https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism, 24.05.2018.
  • Institute for Economics and Peace Global Terrorism Index 2017, http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2017/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2017.pdf
  • KARACUKA, M., CELIK, N. (2016), Turizm Talebi Belirleyicilerinin Mekansal Perspektiften Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye İBBS 2 Örneği, Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 52(610): 9-20.
  • PESARAN, M. H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435.
  • PESARAN, M. H. (2007), A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • PESARAN, M.H., ULLAH, A., YAMAGATA, T. (2008), A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence, Econometrics Journal, 11: 105-127.
  • PITERMAN, S. (2000), Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Financial Markets and Growth: The “Giloh” Effect and Other Effects, Bank of Israel, November 29. Available from http://www.bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/ neumim/neum033e.htm.
  • RAFAEL, L.V. (2008), Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2): 169-188.
  • THE WORLD BANK, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL
  • THOMPSON, A.S. (2011), Terrorism and Tourism in Developed Versus Developing Countries, Tourism Economics, 17(3): 693-700.
  • WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO), Annual Report 2016, http://-cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/pdf/annual_report_2016_web_0.pdf
  • WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO), Tourism Highlights 2017 Edition, https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419029.
  • YAP, G. C. L. & SAHA, S. (2013). Do Political Instability, Terrorism, and Corruption Have Deterring Effects on Tourism Development Even in the Presence of UNESCO Heritage? A Cross-Country Panel Estimate, Tourism Analysis, 18: 587-599.

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE TURİST GELİŞLERİ İLE TERÖRİZM ARASINDAKİ NEDENSEL İLİŞKİSİNİN İNCELENMESI

Year 2018, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 925 - 933, 27.12.2018
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.442966

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın
amacı, turist gelişleri ile terörizm arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Çalışmada, diğer çalışmaların aksine, bir
ülkenin terörizm düzeyinin belirlenmesi için Ekonomi ve Barış Enstitüsü
tarafından hazırlanan Küresel Terörizm Endeksi (GTI) kullanılmıştır. 2006-2016
dönemi için on üç gelişmekte olan ülkeyi kapsayan çalışmada, daha yansız ve güvenilir
sonuçlar elde edebilmek için turist gelişleri ile terörizm arasındaki
nedensellik ilişkisi, Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) testi ile incelenmiştir.
Sonuçlar, terörizmden turist gelişlerine doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin
olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Buna göre gelişmekte olan ülke yetkililerinin diğer
değişkenler sabitken, turistlerin
kendilerini güvende hissetmeleri ve daha fazla turist çekebilmek için güvenlik
önlemleri almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.

References

  • BALTAGI, B.H., FENG, Q., KAO, C. (2012), A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Journal of the Econometrics, 170: 164-177.
  • CELIK, N., KARACUKA, M. (2017), Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz, Ege Academic Review, 17(3): 313-322.
  • DOGRU, T., BULUT, U. (2017), Is Tourism an Engine For Economic Recovery? Theory and Empirical Evidence, Tourism Management, 67: 425-434.
  • DRAKOS, K., KUTAN, A. M. (2003), Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47: 621-641.
  • DUMITRESCU, E. I., HURLIN, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels, Economic Modeling, 29(4): 1450-1460.
  • ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T. (1991), Causality between Transnational Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Spain, Terrorism, 14: 49-58.
  • ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T., PARISE, G. P. (1992). An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism, Kyklos, 45: 531-54.
  • FERIDUN, M. (2011), Impact of Terrorism on Tourism in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Applied Economics, 43(24): 3349-3354.
  • FLEISCHER, A., BUCCOLA, S. (2002), War, Terror, and The Tourism Market in Israel, Applied Economics, 34, 1335-1343.
  • GUVENEK, B., ALPTEKIN, V. (2015), Turistlere Yönelik Terör Saldırılarının Turizme Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 17(1): 21-38.
  • https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism, 24.05.2018.
  • Institute for Economics and Peace Global Terrorism Index 2017, http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2017/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2017.pdf
  • KARACUKA, M., CELIK, N. (2016), Turizm Talebi Belirleyicilerinin Mekansal Perspektiften Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye İBBS 2 Örneği, Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 52(610): 9-20.
  • PESARAN, M. H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435.
  • PESARAN, M. H. (2007), A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • PESARAN, M.H., ULLAH, A., YAMAGATA, T. (2008), A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence, Econometrics Journal, 11: 105-127.
  • PITERMAN, S. (2000), Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Financial Markets and Growth: The “Giloh” Effect and Other Effects, Bank of Israel, November 29. Available from http://www.bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/ neumim/neum033e.htm.
  • RAFAEL, L.V. (2008), Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2): 169-188.
  • THE WORLD BANK, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL
  • THOMPSON, A.S. (2011), Terrorism and Tourism in Developed Versus Developing Countries, Tourism Economics, 17(3): 693-700.
  • WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO), Annual Report 2016, http://-cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/pdf/annual_report_2016_web_0.pdf
  • WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO), Tourism Highlights 2017 Edition, https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419029.
  • YAP, G. C. L. & SAHA, S. (2013). Do Political Instability, Terrorism, and Corruption Have Deterring Effects on Tourism Development Even in the Presence of UNESCO Heritage? A Cross-Country Panel Estimate, Tourism Analysis, 18: 587-599.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Sinem Eyüboğlu 0000-0002-3525-9173

Kemal Eyuboglu 0000-0002-2108-9732

Publication Date December 27, 2018
Submission Date July 12, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 5 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Eyüboğlu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2018). EXAMINING THE CAUSAL NEXUS BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS AND TERRORISM IN EMERGING COUNTRIES. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(3), 925-933. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.442966