Explainable Machine Learning Models for Predicting Recurrence in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Year 2024, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 468 - 473, 24.09.2024

Ahmet Kadir Arslan , Cemil Çolak

https://doi.org/10.37990/medr.1525801

Abstract

Aim: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is a common type of cancer that originates in the thyroid gland. This study aimed to predict the recurrence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma, in patient with well-DTC, using explainable machine learning (XAI) models.
Material and Method: The study utilized a dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, which included 383 patients and 13 candidate predictors. After a variable selection process using distance correlation, only four predictors (Response, Risk, T, and N) were retained for model building. Two XAI models, Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums (FIGS) and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM), were employed.
Results: The EBM model slightly outperformed the FIGS model in terms of accuracy. The study found that the most influential predictors of Well-DTC recurrence were the response to DTC treatment, risk status according to the American Thyroid Association classification, tumor size (T), and lymph node metastasis (N).
Conclusion: In conclusion, this study successfully identified key risk factors for DTC recurrence using XAI models, providing interpretable insights for clinical decision-making and potential for personalized treatment strategies.

Keywords

Differentiated thyroid cancer, explainable machine learning, risk factors, explainable boosting machine, fast interpretable greedy-tree sums

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