Abstract
This study shows the effects of inflation and tax-adjusted retirement withdrawal rates on the main capital. It is an important factor in the retirement decision how much of the investor can withdraw from his portfolio without losing his main capital. The safe withdrawal ratio in the 50% stock and 50% government bond portfolio between 2005 and 2019 was 4%. It is seen that the Bengen 4% rule is valid in the Turkish financial market. When investors withdraw by 3%, it saves money in the portfolio, and when they withdraw by 5%, it shrinks. Although increasing the stock weight allows for a higher draw ratio, the risk increases. The returns on government debt securities bring stability to the portfolio, especially when the stock market goes down. Turkish investors lost their 23% portfolio value by choosing a 4% withdrawal rate based on a popular investment instrument, the money deposit.
Keywords
References
- AKTAŞ, A. (2020). Uzun vadeli getiride altın açık ara önde. https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/uzun-vadeli-getiride-altin-acik-ara-onde/460189
- BENGEN, W. P. (1994). Determining withdrawal rates using historical data. Journal of Financial Planning, 7(1), 171-180.
- BENGEN, W. P. (1996). Asset allocation for a lifetime. Journal of Financial Planning, 9(3), 58-67.
- BENGEN, W. P. (1997). Conserving client portfolio during retirement, part III. Journal of Financial Planning, 10(5), 84-97.
- BENGEN, W. P. (2017). I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/6vazih/im_bill_bengen_and_i_first_proposed_the_4_safe/
- BİERWİRTH, L. (1994). Investing for retirement: using the past to model the future. Journal of Financial Planning, 7(1), 14-24.
- COOLEY, P. L., HUBBARD, C. M. & WALZ, D. T. (1998). Retirement spending: choosing a sustainable withdrawal rate. Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors, 20(2), 16-21.
- FERGUSON, T. W. (1996). Endow yourself. Forbes, 157(12), 186-187.
- FİSEK, J, L (ERN) (2017). Safe Withdrawal Rates: A Guide for Early Retirees. Available https://ssrn.com/abstract=2920322 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.292032 2 HO, K., MİLEVSKY, M. & C. ROBİNSON. (1994). Asset allocation, life expectancy, and shortfall. Financial Services Review, 3(2), 109-126.
- PFAU W. (2018). The Trinity Study And Portfolio Success Rates. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/?sh=5c9bb7256860
- TUİK (2020). Reel Getiri Oranları. www.tuik.org
Abstract
Bu çalışma, enflasyona ve vergiye göre ayarlanmış emeklilikte para çekme oranlarının ana sermayeye etkilerini göstermektedir. Yatırımcının ana parasını kaybetmeden portföyünden ne kadarını çekebileceği emeklilik kararı almasında önemli bir faktördür. %50 hisse senedinden ve %50 devlet tahvillinden oluşan portföyde 2005-2019 yılları arasında Türkiye’de güvenilir çekme oranı %4 olarak bulunmuştur. Bengen %4 kuralının Türk finans piyasası içinde geçerli olduğu görülmektedir. %3 oranında çektiğinde portföyde para birikmeye devam etmekte, %5 oranında çektiğinde portföyde para azalmaktadır. Hisse senedi ağırlığını arttırmak daha yüksek çekme oranına izin vermekteyse de, risk yükselmektedir. Devlet iç borç senetleri getirilerinin borsanın düştüğü zamanda yükselmesi, portföye istikrar getirmektedir. Türkiye’deki yatırımcılarının tercih ettiği mevduat getirisine göre %4 çekme oranında portföy %23’lük değer kaybetmektedir.
Keywords
References
- AKTAŞ, A. (2020). Uzun vadeli getiride altın açık ara önde. https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/uzun-vadeli-getiride-altin-acik-ara-onde/460189
- BENGEN, W. P. (1994). Determining withdrawal rates using historical data. Journal of Financial Planning, 7(1), 171-180.
- BENGEN, W. P. (1996). Asset allocation for a lifetime. Journal of Financial Planning, 9(3), 58-67.
- BENGEN, W. P. (1997). Conserving client portfolio during retirement, part III. Journal of Financial Planning, 10(5), 84-97.
- BENGEN, W. P. (2017). I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/6vazih/im_bill_bengen_and_i_first_proposed_the_4_safe/
- BİERWİRTH, L. (1994). Investing for retirement: using the past to model the future. Journal of Financial Planning, 7(1), 14-24.
- COOLEY, P. L., HUBBARD, C. M. & WALZ, D. T. (1998). Retirement spending: choosing a sustainable withdrawal rate. Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors, 20(2), 16-21.
- FERGUSON, T. W. (1996). Endow yourself. Forbes, 157(12), 186-187.
- FİSEK, J, L (ERN) (2017). Safe Withdrawal Rates: A Guide for Early Retirees. Available https://ssrn.com/abstract=2920322 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.292032 2 HO, K., MİLEVSKY, M. & C. ROBİNSON. (1994). Asset allocation, life expectancy, and shortfall. Financial Services Review, 3(2), 109-126.
- PFAU W. (2018). The Trinity Study And Portfolio Success Rates. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/?sh=5c9bb7256860
- TUİK (2020). Reel Getiri Oranları. www.tuik.org
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Business Administration |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | October 1, 2021 |
| Submission Date | February 14, 2021 |
| Acceptance Date | June 1, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Volume: 4 Issue: 2 |
