TÜRKİYE’DE FIRSATÇI VE PARTİZAN POLİTİK KONJONKTÜREL DALGALANMALAR: 1950-2010

Tülin Altun

doi:10.14780/iibd.11901

-

Year 2014, Volume: 36 Issue: 2, 47 - 69, 16.03.2015

Tülin Altun

https://doi.org/10.14780/iibd.11901

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The Theory of Political Business Cycles (PBC) suggests that policy makers taking part in political decision-making process cause cycles on economic variables. This paper analyzes PBC according to opportunistic and partisan models in Turkey. The autoregressive integrated moving average method is used to determine whether there is a political deviation in the course of public spending between 1950 and 2010. The emprical results show that opportunistic and partisan political business cycles are valid in Turkey. However the evidence related to partisan model is not clear

Keywords

Opportunistic Political Business Cycles, Partisan Political Business Cycles, Government Expenditure

References

Chowdhury A. R., “Political Surfing over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing in India”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 37, No. 4, 1993, s.1100-1118.
Alesina Alberto, Roubini Nouriel, Cohen, Gerald D.: Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, Cambridge, The MIT Press, 1997.
Alesina, A. Jeffrey Sachs: “Political Parties and The Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 1940.
Hicks, A., Swank, Duane: “On the Political Economy of Welfare Expansion: A Comparative Analysis of 18 Advanced Capitalist Democracies, 1960-1971”. Comparative Political Studies. Vol.17, No.1, 1984, ss.81-119.
Hicks, A., Swank, Duane: “Politics, Institutions, and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies, 1960-82”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 86, No. 3, 1992, s. 658-674
Hicks, A., Swank, Duane, Ambuhl, Martin: “Welfare Expansion Revisited: Policy Routines and Their Mediation by Party, Class and Crisis, 1957-1982”, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 17, Issue 4, 1989, s. 401-430.
Blais, A., Blake, Donald, Dion, Stephane: “Do Parties Make a Difference? Parties and the Size of Government in Liberal Democracies”. American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 37, No. 1, 1993, ss.40-62.
Lindbeck, A., “Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians”, The American Economic Review, Vol.66, No.2, 1976, s. 1- 19.
Benito, B., Bastida, Francisco, Vicente, Cristina: “Municipal Elections and Cultural Expenditure”, Journal of Cultural Economics, Vol.37, 2013, s. 3-32.
Dash, B. B., Raja, Angara V.: “Do Political Determinants Affect the Size and Composition of Public Expenditure? A study of the Indian States”, International Review of Economics, Vol. 60, Issue 3, 2013, s. 293-317.
Cameron, D. R., “The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 72, No. 4, 1978, s. 1243-1261.
Swank, D., “The Political Economy of Government Domestic Expenditure in the Affluent Democracies, 1960-1980”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1988, s. 1120-1150.
Savaşan, F., Dursun, İbrahim, “Türkiye’de Yerel Düzeyde Politik Konjonktürel Devreler”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İİBF Dergisi, Cilt..VIII, Sayı 2, 2006, s. 191-208.
Özkan, F, Tarı, Recep, “Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Seçim Dönemlerinin Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmaları Teorisi Çerçevesinde Analizi”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 36, 2010, s. 223-238.
Telatar, F., “Parlamenter Sistemlerde Politik Devresel Dalgalanmalar: Teori ve Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama”, G.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt. 2, Sayı. 1, 2000, s. 133-154
Kramer, G. H., “Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 65, No.1, 1971, s.131-143.
Akalın, G., Erkişi, Kemal, “Türkiye’de Seçim Ekonomisi Uygulamalarının Geleneksel Oportünist Seçim Çevrimleri Açısından Değerlendirilmesi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 3, Sayı 5, 2007, s. 89–116.
Akgül, I., Zaman Serilerinin Analizi ve Arıma Modelleri, Der Yayınları, İstanbul, 2003, s. 3, 67, 87, 106.
Bakırtaş, İ., Koyuncu, Cüneyt, “Politik Dalgalanmalar Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde Türkiye’deki Seçimlerin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt:19, Sayı:1, 2005, s. 55-66.
Garand, J. C., “Explaining Government Growth in the U.S. States”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 82, No. 3, 1988, s.837-849.
Akerman, J., “Political Economic Cycles”, Kyklos, Vol.1, Issue 2, 1947, s. 107-117. Schuknecht, L., “Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries”, Public Choice 102, 2000, s.115-130.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Rice, Tom W., “Government Growth in the United States”, Journal of Politics, Vol. 47, Issue 1, 1985, s. 2-27.
Kanca, O., “Türkiye’de Transfer Harcamalarının Salınımı ve Politik Gelişmeler”, İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, No.46, 2012, s. 25-29.
Solano, P. L., “Institutional Explanations of Public Expenditure among High Income Democracies”, Public Finance, Vol. 38, Issue 3, 1983, s. 440-458.
Rose, R., Karran, Terence: Taxation by Political Inertia, London, Allen and Unwin, 1987, s. 9.
Onur, S., “Politik Bütçe Döngüleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi (1975-2000)” Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt XXI, Sayı 2, 2002, s. 85-126,
Khemani, S., “Political Cycles in a Developing Economy: Effect of Elections in the Indian States”, Journal of Development Economics, 73, 2004, s. 125-154.
Sezgin, S., “Türkiye’de Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2003”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi Cilt. 62, 2007, s. 135-154.
Ito, T., “Timings and Political Business Cycles in Japan”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 3128, 1989.
Ito, T., Park, Jin Hyuk: “Political Business Cycles in the Parliamentary System”, Economic Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 3, 1988, s. 233-38.
Bräuninger, T., “A Partisan Model of Government Expenditure”, Public Choice, Vol. 125, No. 3-4, 2005, s. 409-429.
Bräuninger, T., 2005, Thomas Bräuninger, “Do Preferences Make a Difference? Parties and the Composition of Budgets in Nineteen OECD Countries”, 99th An- nual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2003 August 28-31, Philadelphia.
Cargill, T. F., Hutchinson, Michael M.: “Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, No. 4, 1991, s. 733-739.
Cusack, T. R., “Partisan Politics and Public Finance: Changes in Public Spending in the Industrialized Democracies, 1955–1989”, Public Choice Vol. 91, Issue 3-4, 1997, s. 375-395.
Cusack, T. R., “Partisanship in the Setting and Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies”. European Journal of Political Science. Vol.40, Issue 1, 2001, s.93- 115.
Rice, T. W., “The Determinants of Western European Government Growth: 1950- 1980”, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1986, s. 233-257.
Aytun, U., “Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar Teorisi Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Fırsatçı ve Manipülatif Kabine Hipotezlerinin Test Edilmesi”, Turgut Özal Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Kongresi-II, Malatya, 19 Nisan 2012.
Berry, W. B., Lowery, David: Understanding United States Government Growth: An Empirical Analysis of the Postwar Era, New York, Praeger, 1987.
Nordhaus, W. D., “The Political Business Cycle” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.42, No.2, 1975, s. 169-190.