GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞENİN ÖTESİNDE: TÜRKİYE VE FARKLI KÜRESEL OYUNCULARDA POLİTİKA FAİZİ VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİ KOPUŞUNU ANLAMAK

Year 2024, Volume: 46 Issue: 1, 152 - 194, 27.06.2024

Caner Özdurak , Sadi Uzunoğlu

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1394213

Abstract

Çalışma, Türkiye'de politika faizleri ile borç verme faizleri arasındaki farklılaşmanın enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini, özellikle uyarlanabilir beklentilerin rolüne odaklanarak incelemektedir. Analiz, Ocak 2003'ten Ocak 2023'e kadar olan uzun bir dönemi kapsıyor ve altı ülkeyi içeriyor: Almanya, Fransa, İtalya, İspanya, ABD, İngiltere ve Türkiye. Çalışma, Türkiye'de politika faizleri ile borç verme faizleri arasında kalıcı ve anlamlı bir farklılığın olduğunu ortaya koyuyor. Ayrıca, para birimindeki değer kaybı, hem bankaların borçlanma maliyetini hem de işletmeler ve tüketiciler için fonlama maliyetini arttırması nedeniyle Türkiye'deki borç verme faizleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Ayrıca çalışma, politika faizleri, borç verme faizleri ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkide uyum beklentilerinin önemli bir rol oynadığını ortaya koyuyor. Geçmiş enflasyon oranlarının mevcut enflasyon beklentileri üzerinde önemli bir etkisi vardır ve bu da enflasyon oranını etkilemektedir. Bu olgu, borçluların yüksek enflasyon ve belirsiz politika ortamında artan riski telafi etmek için daha yüksek borç verme oranları talep etmesiyle daha da kötüleşiyor ve politika faizleri ile borç verme faizleri arasındaki fark daha da açılıyor. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye gibi yumuşak para birimi ekonomilerindeki para politikası, borç verme oranları, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun karmaşık dinamikleri hakkında değerli bilgiler sağlıyor. Sonuçlar, uyum beklentileri ve döviz kurunun enflasyon dinamikleri üzerindeki etkisini dikkate alırken politika faiz oranları ile borç verme faiz oranları arasındaki farklılaşma sorununun ele alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Yapısal VAR, döviz kurları, enflasyon, faiz oranı geçişkenliği

BEYOND DEVELOPED AND EMERGING: UNPACKING POLICYLENDING RATE DISCONNECTIONS AND INFLATION IN TURKIYE WITH A DIVERSE GLOBAL CAST

Abstract

The study examines the impact of the divergence between policy rates and lending rates on inflation in Turkey, with a specific focus on the role of adaptive expectations. The analysis covers a long period, from January 2003 to January 2023, and includes six countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, US, UK and Turkey. The study finds that there is a persistent and significant divergence between policy rates and lending rates in Turkey. Additionally, the depreciation of the currency has a significant impact on lending rates in Turkey, as it increases both the cost of borrowing for banks and the cost of funding for businesses and consumers. Moreover, the study suggests that adaptive expectations play an important role in the relationship between policy rates, lending rates, and inflation. Past inflation rates have a significant impact on current inflation expectations, which, in turn, influences the inflation rate. This phenomenon is exacerbated by borrowers demanding higher lending rates to compensate for the increased risk in an environment of high inflation and uncertain policy, further widening the gap between policy rates and lending rates. The study's findings provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of monetary policy, lending rates, inflation, and the exchange rate in soft currency economies such as Turkey. The results highlight the importance of addressing the issue of the divergence between policy rates and lending rates, while taking into account the impact of adaptive expectations and the exchange rate on inflation dynamics.

Keywords

Structural VAR, exchange rates, inflation, interest rate pass-through

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