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HAVA YOLU TAŞIMACILIĞI YOLCU SAYISINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER

Year 2021, Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 2120 - 2130, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1003099

Abstract

Sivil havacılık özellikle Covid-19 salgını ile birlikte en önemli ve en çok tercih edilen ulaşım biçimi haline gelmiştir. Sivil havacılık sektörü kırılgan bir yapıya sahip olmasının yanında diğer ulaşım yöntemlerine göre de görece pahalıdır. Dünyanın en kalabalık ve en gelişmiş ülkelerinden birisi olan Amerika örneğinde hava yolu taşımacılığını etkileyen faktörler ARDL metodu ile incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada literatürdeki pek çok çalışmanın aksine yolcu sayısı bağımlı değişken olarak, ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kuru bağımsız değişkenler olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. 1980-2019 gözlem döneminin incelendiği araştırmada ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kurunun hava taşımacılığı üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Amerika ekonomisi için kur %1 arttığında hava yolu taşımacılığı %0.29 artmaktadır. Diğer yandan kur değişimleri yolcu sayısı üzerinde uzun dönemde pozitif bir etki gösterirken kısa dönemde iki değişken arasında anlamlı bir ilişki yoktur. Kısa dönemde yolcu sayısını etkileyen tek faktör yine kendisidir. Bu durum, hava yolu taşımacılığının tüketicileri arasındaki etkileşim ile alışkanlıkların gelirin önüne geçebilmesiyle açıklanabilir. Hava yolu taşımacılığı sektöründeki kurumların yolcuların arasındaki pozitif yönlü etkileşimi reklamlar vb. diğer seçeneklerle daha hızlı bir biçimde yayması kısa dönemde dolayısıyla da uzun dönemde sektörün daha hızlı büyümesini sağlayacaktır.

References

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  • Alexander, A., Saheed, A. and Zakaree, S., (2015). Air transportation development and economic growth in Nigeria, J. Econ. Sustain. Develop. (2), 1-11.
  • Baker, D., Merkert, R. And Kamruzzaman, M., (2015). Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia. J. Transp. Geogr. 43, 140–150.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha,O. M., Bekun, F. V. ve Adedoyin, F.F. (2021). The asymmetric impact of air transport on economic growth in Spain: fresh evidence from the tourism-led growth hypothesis, https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1720624, Current Issues in Tourism, 24(2), 503-519.
  • Brida, J. G., Rodríguez-Brindis, M. A. ve Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2016). Causality between economic growth and air transport expansion: Empirical evidence from Mexico. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 6(1), 1–15
  • Britton, E., Cooper, A. ve Tinsley, D. (2005). The economic catalytic effects of air transport in Europe. Proceedings of ETC 2005, Strasbourg, France, 18-20. Retrieved from https://trid.trb. org/view.aspx?id=846317
  • Button, K. ve Yuan, J., (2013). Airfreight transport and economic development: an examination of causality. Urban Stud. 50 (2), 329–340.
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  • Chang, Y.-H. ve Chang, Y.-W. (2009). Air cargo expansion and economic growth: finding the empirical link. Journal of Air Transport Management 15, 264–265.
  • Chi, J. ve Baek, J. (2013), Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look, Transport Policy, 29, 257-260.
  • Derici, S., & Uygur, K. (2019). Türkiye’de Faaliyet Gösteren İki Havayolu Şirketinin Veri Zarflama Analizi ile Etkinlik Ölçümü. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 21(4), 1107-1118.
  • Fernandes, E. ve Pacheco, R. R. (2010), The Causal Relationship between GDP and Domestic Air Passenger Traffic in Brazil. Transportation Planning and Technology, 33(7), 569-581.
  • Granger, C. W. J. ve Newbold, P. (1974), Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, Journal Of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Green, R.K. (2007). Airports and economic development. Real Estate Economics, 35, 91–112
  • Hakim, Md M. Ve Merkert, R. (2016). The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia, Journal of Transport Geography, 56, 120-127.
  • Hu, Y., Xiao, J., Deng, Y., Xiao, Y. Ve Wang, S. (2015). Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: evidence from heterogeneous panel models. Journal of Air Transport Management 42, 95–100.
  • International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Outlook for Air Transport, Montreal, Canada
  • Ishutkina, M.ve Hansman, R.J. (2009). Analysis of the Interaction Between Air Transportation and Economic Activity: A Worldwide Perspective. Report No. ICAT-2009-2. MIT, CAMBRIDGE, USA.
  • Johansen, S.ve Juselius, K. (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to The Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Karlaftis, M. (2008). Demand forecastıng ın regıonal aırports: dynamıc tobit models with GARCH errors, Sitraer 7, 100-111 – Tr. 312.
  • Korkmaz, E. ve Akgüngör, A.P. (2021). The forecasting of air transport passenger demands in Turkey by using novel meta-heuristic algorithms, Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience,33, e6263.
  • Marazzo, M., Scherre, R. ve Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: a time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 46, 261–269.
  • Mukkala, K., ve Tervo, H. (2012). Regional Airports and Regional Growth in Europe: Which Way Does the Causality Run? RSA European Conference, Delft, Netherlands) Microsoft World-Regional airports and regional growth mukka tervo.docx
  • Narayan, P. K. ve Smyth, R. (2005), Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach, Journal of The Asia Pacific Economy, 10(1), 96-115.
  • Nasreen, S., Saidi, S. ve Ozturk, I. (2018). Assessing links between energy consumption, freight transport, and economic growth: evidence from dynamic simultaneous equation models, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 16825–16841.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Schafer, A. ve Waitz, I. A. (2014). Air transportation and the environment, Transport Policy 34, 1-4. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), (2012), https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/state_transportation_statistics/state_transportation_statistics_2012/index
  • Zhang, F. ve Graham, D. J. (2020). Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships, Transport Reviews, 40(4), 506–528.
Year 2021, Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 2120 - 2130, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1003099

Abstract

References

  • Adedoyin, F.F., Bekun, Festus V., Driha, O.M. and Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2020). The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States, Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 160, November, 120297.
  • Alexander, A., Saheed, A. and Zakaree, S., (2015). Air transportation development and economic growth in Nigeria, J. Econ. Sustain. Develop. (2), 1-11.
  • Baker, D., Merkert, R. And Kamruzzaman, M., (2015). Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia. J. Transp. Geogr. 43, 140–150.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha,O. M., Bekun, F. V. ve Adedoyin, F.F. (2021). The asymmetric impact of air transport on economic growth in Spain: fresh evidence from the tourism-led growth hypothesis, https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1720624, Current Issues in Tourism, 24(2), 503-519.
  • Brida, J. G., Rodríguez-Brindis, M. A. ve Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2016). Causality between economic growth and air transport expansion: Empirical evidence from Mexico. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 6(1), 1–15
  • Britton, E., Cooper, A. ve Tinsley, D. (2005). The economic catalytic effects of air transport in Europe. Proceedings of ETC 2005, Strasbourg, France, 18-20. Retrieved from https://trid.trb. org/view.aspx?id=846317
  • Button, K. ve Yuan, J., (2013). Airfreight transport and economic development: an examination of causality. Urban Stud. 50 (2), 329–340.
  • Cabo da Silva, M., Fernandes, E.,Pacheco,R. ve Pires, H. (2018). Economic Growth Relations to Domestic and International Air Passenger Transport in Brazil, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Transport and Vehicle Engineering,12 (10), doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1475036.
  • Chang, Y.-H. ve Chang, Y.-W. (2009). Air cargo expansion and economic growth: finding the empirical link. Journal of Air Transport Management 15, 264–265.
  • Chi, J. ve Baek, J. (2013), Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look, Transport Policy, 29, 257-260.
  • Derici, S., & Uygur, K. (2019). Türkiye’de Faaliyet Gösteren İki Havayolu Şirketinin Veri Zarflama Analizi ile Etkinlik Ölçümü. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 21(4), 1107-1118.
  • Fernandes, E. ve Pacheco, R. R. (2010), The Causal Relationship between GDP and Domestic Air Passenger Traffic in Brazil. Transportation Planning and Technology, 33(7), 569-581.
  • Granger, C. W. J. ve Newbold, P. (1974), Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, Journal Of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Green, R.K. (2007). Airports and economic development. Real Estate Economics, 35, 91–112
  • Hakim, Md M. Ve Merkert, R. (2016). The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia, Journal of Transport Geography, 56, 120-127.
  • Hu, Y., Xiao, J., Deng, Y., Xiao, Y. Ve Wang, S. (2015). Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: evidence from heterogeneous panel models. Journal of Air Transport Management 42, 95–100.
  • International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Outlook for Air Transport, Montreal, Canada
  • Ishutkina, M.ve Hansman, R.J. (2009). Analysis of the Interaction Between Air Transportation and Economic Activity: A Worldwide Perspective. Report No. ICAT-2009-2. MIT, CAMBRIDGE, USA.
  • Johansen, S.ve Juselius, K. (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to The Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Karlaftis, M. (2008). Demand forecastıng ın regıonal aırports: dynamıc tobit models with GARCH errors, Sitraer 7, 100-111 – Tr. 312.
  • Korkmaz, E. ve Akgüngör, A.P. (2021). The forecasting of air transport passenger demands in Turkey by using novel meta-heuristic algorithms, Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience,33, e6263.
  • Marazzo, M., Scherre, R. ve Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: a time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 46, 261–269.
  • Mukkala, K., ve Tervo, H. (2012). Regional Airports and Regional Growth in Europe: Which Way Does the Causality Run? RSA European Conference, Delft, Netherlands) Microsoft World-Regional airports and regional growth mukka tervo.docx
  • Narayan, P. K. ve Smyth, R. (2005), Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach, Journal of The Asia Pacific Economy, 10(1), 96-115.
  • Nasreen, S., Saidi, S. ve Ozturk, I. (2018). Assessing links between energy consumption, freight transport, and economic growth: evidence from dynamic simultaneous equation models, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 16825–16841.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Schafer, A. ve Waitz, I. A. (2014). Air transportation and the environment, Transport Policy 34, 1-4. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), (2012), https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/state_transportation_statistics/state_transportation_statistics_2012/index
  • Zhang, F. ve Graham, D. J. (2020). Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships, Transport Reviews, 40(4), 506–528.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Oğuz Öcal 0000-0002-5729-7218

Publication Date December 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 11 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Öcal, O. (2021). HAVA YOLU TAŞIMACILIĞI YOLCU SAYISINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 11(4), 2120-2130. https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1003099