MIKTA Ülkelerinde Çevresel Phillips Eğrisi Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: CS-ARDL Testi Yaklaşımı

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 301 - 316, 23.03.2023

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1104588

Abstract

Ekonomik büyüme odaklı politikalar doğa üzerindeki baskıyı artırmakta ve çevresel kirliliğe yol açmaktadır. Bu nedenle ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam ile eş zamanlı olarak çevrenin korunması günümüzde ülkeler için önemli bir kalkınma önceliği haline gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, 1991–2018 döneminde MIKTA ülkelerinde (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore, Türkiye ve Avustralya) çevresel kirlilik ve işsizlik arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu varsayan Çevresel Phillips Eğrisi (EPC) hipotezini Narayan ve Narayan (2010)’ın Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezi yaklaşımı bağlamında test etmektir. Bu amaçla yapılan çalışmada çevresel kirlilik göstergesi olarak ekolojik ayak izi (ECF) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca Durbin–Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ile uzun dönemli ilişki, yatay kesit genişletilmiş ARDL (CS–ARDL) tahmincisi ile de uzun dönem katsayılar tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda MIKTA ülkelerinde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde EPC hipotezinin geçerli olduğu, diğer bir ifade ile işsizliğin çevresel kirliliği azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgudan hareketle, MIKTA ülkelerine daha az kirliliğe neden olan sektörlerde istihdamı teşvik etmeleri, yoğun kirlilik oluşturan sektörlerde ise çevresel standartları yükseltmeleri önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, Ekolojik Ayak İzi, Çevresel Phillips Eğrisi Hipotezi, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi, CS–ARDL Tahmincisi.

Supporting Institution

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemektedir.

Testing the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in MIKTA Countries: CS-ARDL Test Approach

Abstract

Policies that focus on economic growth increase the pressure on nature and cause environmental pollution. Therefore, environmental protection simultaneously with economic growth and employment has become an important development priority for countries today. In this context, the aim of the study is to test the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis, which assumes a negative relationship between environmental pollution and unemployment, for MIKTA countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia) in the period of 1991–2018 by drawing on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis approach of Narayan and Narayan (2010). To this end, ecological footprint (ECF) is used as an indicator of environmental pollution. Moreover, the long-term relationship is estimated with the Durbin–Hausman cointegration test and the long-term coefficients are estimated with the cross-section augmented ARDL (CS–ARDL) estimator. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the EPC hypothesis is valid both in the short and long term in MIKTA countries, in other words, unemployment reduces environmental pollution. Based on this finding, MIKTA countries are recommended to encourage employment in sectors that cause less pollution, and to raise environmental standards in sectors that cause heavy pollution.

Keywords

Sustainable Development, Ecological Footprint, Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis, Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, CS–ARDL Estimator.

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