Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri ve Hollanda Hastalığı: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2017, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 49 - 64, 01.08.2017

Emrah Eray Akça Harun Bal

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.310348

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Ev sahibi ülkenin üretim,
yatırım ve istihdam yapısı gibi bir dizi parametre üzerinde etkili olan
yurtdışı işçi gelirleri (YİG)’nin, reel döviz kurunu etkilemesi dolayısıyla dış
ticaret yapısı üzerinde de etkileri söz konusudur. YİG’nin yanı sıra doğrudan
yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları ve dış yardım gibi çeşitli sermaye
akımları yoluyla ortaya çıkabilen ve literatürde Hollanda Hastalığı olarak adlandırılan bu olayın çıkış noktası,
doğal kaynak keşiflerinden dolayı dış finansman girişlerinde yaşanan ani ve
büyük hacimli artışlar olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, en fazla YİG elde eden ülkeler
arasından seçilen 9 ülkeye ait 1990-2014 dönemi panel verileri kullanılarak,
YİG’nin ev sahibi ülke döviz kurunda bir reel değerlenmeye yol açıp açmadığının
tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çift yönlü rassal etkiler tahmincisinin
kullanıldığı analizden elde edilen bulgular, bir Hollanda Hastalığı belirtisi olarak, YİG’nin reel değerlenmeye yol
açtığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri, Hollanda Hastalığı, Panel Veri Analizi

Workers' Remittances and Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries

Abstract

Workers’ remittances, that
have influence on a range of parameters like production, investment and
employment structure of host country, exert effects on the foreign trade
structure as well through its impact on real exchange rate. Besides the capital
inflows like foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and foreign aid,
workers remittance can also lead to Dutch Disease, a phenomena known in
literature resulted from sudden and massive increase in foreign capital inflow
because of natural resource discovery. The study aims to determine whether the
workers' remittances led to a real appreciation in the host country’s currency
employing panel data for the period of 1990-2014 for 9 countries selected from
those receiving the highest workers’ remittance. Findings from the analysis of
the two-way random effects estimation suggest that, as a Dutch Disease Symptom,
workers' remittances lead to a real appreciation of the home countries'
currencies. 

Keywords

Workers’ Remittances, Dutch Disease, Panel Data Analysis

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