Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri ve Hollanda Hastalığı: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2017, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 49 - 64, 01.08.2017

Emrah Eray Akça , Harun Bal

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.310348

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Ev sahibi ülkenin üretim,
yatırım ve istihdam yapısı gibi bir dizi parametre üzerinde etkili olan
yurtdışı işçi gelirleri (YİG)’nin, reel döviz kurunu etkilemesi dolayısıyla dış
ticaret yapısı üzerinde de etkileri söz konusudur. YİG’nin yanı sıra doğrudan
yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları ve dış yardım gibi çeşitli sermaye
akımları yoluyla ortaya çıkabilen ve literatürde Hollanda Hastalığı olarak adlandırılan bu olayın çıkış noktası,
doğal kaynak keşiflerinden dolayı dış finansman girişlerinde yaşanan ani ve
büyük hacimli artışlar olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, en fazla YİG elde eden ülkeler
arasından seçilen 9 ülkeye ait 1990-2014 dönemi panel verileri kullanılarak,
YİG’nin ev sahibi ülke döviz kurunda bir reel değerlenmeye yol açıp açmadığının
tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çift yönlü rassal etkiler tahmincisinin
kullanıldığı analizden elde edilen bulgular, bir Hollanda Hastalığı belirtisi olarak, YİG’nin reel değerlenmeye yol
açtığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri, Hollanda Hastalığı, Panel Veri Analizi

Workers' Remittances and Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries

Abstract

Workers’ remittances, that
have influence on a range of parameters like production, investment and
employment structure of host country, exert effects on the foreign trade
structure as well through its impact on real exchange rate. Besides the capital
inflows like foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and foreign aid,
workers remittance can also lead to Dutch Disease, a phenomena known in
literature resulted from sudden and massive increase in foreign capital inflow
because of natural resource discovery. The study aims to determine whether the
workers' remittances led to a real appreciation in the host country’s currency
employing panel data for the period of 1990-2014 for 9 countries selected from
those receiving the highest workers’ remittance. Findings from the analysis of
the two-way random effects estimation suggest that, as a Dutch Disease Symptom,
workers' remittances lead to a real appreciation of the home countries'
currencies. 

Keywords

Workers’ Remittances, Dutch Disease, Panel Data Analysis

References

• ACOSTA, Pablo; CALDERON, Cesar; FAJNZYLBER, Pablo; LOPEZ, Humberto (2008), “What is the Impact of International Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Latin America?”, World Development, Vol. 36, No. 1: 89-114.
• ADAMS, Richard H.; PAGE, John (2005), “Do International Migration and Remittances Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?”, World Development, Vol. 33, No. 10: 1645-1669.
• AMUEDO-DORANTES, Catalina; POZO, Susan (2004), “Workers’ Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts”, World Development, Vol. 32, No. 8: 1407-1417.
• ARI, Ayse; ÖZCAN, Burcu (2012), “Hollanda Hastalığı: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Sosyo Ekonomi, 2: 155-171.
• BAL, Harun (2011) “İktisadi Gelişme ve Doğal Kaynaklar: Geçiş Ekonomileri Çerçevesinde Bir İnceleme”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 20, Sayı 1: 87-104.
• BALTAGI, Badi (2005), “Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data”, 3rd Edition, London: John Wiley & Sons.
• BOURDET, Yves; FALCK, Hans (2003), “Emigrants’ Remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde”, Kristianstad University College Department of Business Studies Working Paper Se-ries, No. 11: 1-21.
• CHOWDHURY, Mamta B.; RABBI, Fazle (2014), “Workers’ Remittances and Dutch Disease in Bangladesh”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 23, No. 4: 455-475.
• CORDEN, Warner Max (1984), “Booming sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation”, Oxford Economic Papers New Series, Vol. 36, No. 3: 359-380.
• CORDEN, W. Max; NEARY, J. Peter (1982), “Booming sector and De-industrialisation in a Small Open Economy”. The Economic Journal, Vol. 92, No. 368: 825-848.
• GYLFASON, Thorvaldur. (2001), “Natural resources and economic growth: What ıs the connec-tion?” CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 530: 1-20.
• JOHN Jonathan Di (2011), “Is There Really a Resource Curse? A Critical Survey of Theory and Evidence”, Global Governance, Vol. 17, No. 2: 167-184.
• JONGWANICH, Juthathip (2007), “Worker’s Remittances, Economic Growth and Poverty in Developing Asia and the Pacific Countries”, UNESCAP Working Paper, WP/07/01, 1-27.
• LARTEY, Emmanuel K. K.; MANDELMAN, Federico S.; ACOSTA, Pablo A. (2012), “Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis”, Review of Interna-tional Economics, Vol 20, No. 2: 377-395.
• MARTINS, Pedro MG (2013), “Do Large Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Dutch Disease in Ethiopia”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 45, No. 8: 1075-1088.
• NIKAS, Christos; BLOUCHOUTZI, Anastasia (2014), “Emigrants’Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case of Albania and Moldova”, Revista Romana de Statistica, No 1: 45-65.
• OOMES Nienke; KALCHEVA, Katerina (2007), “Diagnosing Dutch disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?”, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 102: 1-41. RATHA, Dilip (2013), “The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduc-tion”. Policy Brief 8: 1-13.
• ROY, Ripon; DİXON, Robert (2016), “Workers remittances and Duch Disease in South Asian Countries”, Applied Economic Letters, Vol. 23, No. 6: 407-410.
• SAYILGAN, Güven; SÜSLÜ, Cemil (2011), “Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi: Türkiye ve Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Vol. 5, No. 1: 73-96.
• SY, Mouhamadou; TABARRAEI, Hamidreza (2010), “Capital Inflows and Exchange Rate in LLCs: The Dutch Disease Problem Reviseted”, PSE Working Paper, No 26. 1-31.
• World Bank Group (2016), “Migration and Remittances_Recent Developments and Outlook”, Migration and Development Brief 26: 1-48.
• World Bank (2017). http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx, (Erişim: 04.03.2017).