Kaldıraç ve Döngüsellik: Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Year 2019, Volume: 14 Issue: 2, 331 - 346, 30.08.2019

Emine Kaya Yelda Köksal

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.451134

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2006 Ocak-2018 Ocak döneminde bankacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren bankaların kaldıraç yapısının döngüselliğini araştırmaktır. Döngüselliğin tespiti için, kaldıraç oranı ve aktif değişimi arasındaki ilişki regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir. Regresyon analizi tahminleri, aktif değişiminin kaldıraç oranı değişimini pozitif yönlü ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediğine işaret etmektedir. Bu sonuç, kaldıracın döngüsel olduğunu göstermektedir. Kaldıracın döngüselliği, banka varlıklarının büyüme gösterdiği dönemlerde, kaldıraç oranının artmasına ve finansal çevrimler ile kredi çevrimlerinin birbirini tetiklemesine sebep olabilmektedir. Bu şekilde, kaldıracın finansal hızlandırma mekanizma olmasından yola çıkılarak, finansal genişleme dönemlerinde döngüsel karşıtı bir politika belirlenmesi ile makro riskleri azaltabilen önlemler geliştirilebileceği söylenebilir.

Keywords

Kaldıraç Döngüselliği, Finansal Çevrimler, Kredi Çevrimleri, Finansal Hızlandırıcı Mekanizma

Leverage and Procyclicality: An Application on Banking Sector

Abstract

The purpose of this study
is to investigate the procyclicality of the leverage structure of the banks
operated in banking sector in the term of 2006 January-2018 January. In order
to determine the procyclicality, the relationship between the changes of
leverage rate and asset was investigated by regression analysis. The
estimations of the regression analysis indicate that the asset change affects
the leverage rate change positive direction and statisticallly significant.
This result shows that the leverage is procyclical. Leverage procylicality
can cause increase in the leverage rate and trigger of the financial cycles
and the credit cycles each other during periods when the banks assets grow.
In this way, it can be said that by taking approach the leverage as a
financial accelerator mechanism, with determined countercyclical policy
during financial expansion periods, the precautions can be developed that can
decrease macro risks.

Keywords

Leverage Procyclicality, Financial Cycles, Credit Cycles, Financial Accelerator Mechanism

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