BibTex RIS Cite

-

Year 2013, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 97 - 116, 01.09.2013

Metin Bayrak Osman Cenk Kanca

Abstract

The popularity of Phillips Curve dates back to the turn of 1960s, it was being applied at varying levels in several countries. Samuelson and Solow (1960) has changed the content of Phillips Curve by using inflation rate instead of the change in money wages. Therefore, Phillips Curve has become an analysis tool explaining the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate. The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of Philips Curve in the economy of Turkey .The study researched the stability of series. Then, it analyzed whether there is any long run relation between cointegration test and the series or not. The research made estimations with LSM method by using the model of Blanchard and Gali (2007). According to results, it has been determined that the analysis of Phillips Curve is not valid for long run in the economy of Turkey but there exists a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in short run.

Keywords

Phillips Curve Inflation Unemployment Cointegration.

References

  • Agenor, P. R. ve Bayraktar, N. (2003), “Contractic Models of the Phillips Curve: Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, 3139.
  • Altay, B. vd. (2011), “İşsizlik ve Enflasyon Oranları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: G8 Ülkeleri Örneği”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İİBF Dergisi, 13 (2), 1-26.
  • Arabacı, Ö. ve Eryiğit, K. Y. (2012), “A Thresold Regression Estimation of Phillips Curve: Turkey Case”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7, 29-47.
  • Aşırım, O. (1995), “Output Inflation Tradeoff: Evidence From Turkey. The Central Bank Of the Republic of Turkey”, http://www.econturk.org/Turkisheconomy/9506.pdf.
  • Ball, L. (1994), “What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?”, Monetary Policy, (ss. 155 – 193). Derleyen N.G. Mankiw. University of Chicago.
  • Beaudry, P. ve Doyle, M. (2000), “What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada?”, Bank of Canada, http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2000/beaudryfinal.pdf.
  • Bhattarai R. K., (2004), “ Unemployment-Inflation Trade-offs in OECD Countries: Lessons From Panel Data and Theories of Unemployment”, http://www. hull.ac.uk/ php/ecskrb/ uninfl.pdf
  • Blanchard, O. ve Gali, J. (2007), “Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39 (1), 35-64.
  • Büyükakın, T. (2008), “Phillips Eğrisi Yarım Yüzyıldır Bitmeyen Tartışma”, İ. Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 39, 133-159.
  • Clark, P. B. ve Laxton, D. (1997), “Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemployment Costs of Overheating”, IMF Research Department, (WP/97/17).
  • Çetinkaya, A.A. ve Yavuz, D. (2002), “Calculation of Output-Inflation Sacrifice Ratio: The Case of Turkey”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, (11).
  • Daly, M. C. ve Hobijn, B. (2013), “Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, 1-47. De Veirman, E. (2006), “Which Nonlinearity in the Phillips Curve? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan”, Johns Hopkins University, http://www.econ.jhu.edu/jobmarket/ 2005/ deveirman/PaperJune23.pdf. Department Working Paper, (11).

Türkiye’de Phillips Eğrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Year 2013, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 97 - 116, 01.09.2013

Metin Bayrak Osman Cenk Kanca

Abstract

Phillips Eğrisi’nin popülaritesi 1960’lı yılların başına tekabül etmekte, o dönemden itibaren değişen derecelerde birçok ülkede uygulanmaktadır. Samuelson ve Solow (1960) parasal ücretlerdeki değişme yerine enflasyon oranını kullanarak Phillips Eğrisi’nin içeriğini değiştirmişlerdir. Böylece, Phillips Eğrisi işsizlik oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklayan bir analiz aracı olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı,1970-2010 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Phillips Eğrisi’nin geçerliliğini Türkiye ekonomisi açısından sınamaktır. Analizde, önce serilerin durağanlığı araştırılmış sonra eşbütünleşme testi ile seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Ampirik kısımda Blanchard ve Gali’nin (2007) modeli kullanılarak EKK yöntemiyle tahminde bulunulmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar neticesinde, Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun dönemde Phillips Eğrisi analizinin geçerli olmadığı ancak kısa dönemde enflasyon ile işsizlik arasında bir trade-off’un var olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Phillips Eğrisi Enflasyon İşsizlik Eşbütünleşme. An Applcation on Phillips Curve in Turkey

References

  • Agenor, P. R. ve Bayraktar, N. (2003), “Contractic Models of the Phillips Curve: Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, 3139.
  • Altay, B. vd. (2011), “İşsizlik ve Enflasyon Oranları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: G8 Ülkeleri Örneği”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İİBF Dergisi, 13 (2), 1-26.
  • Arabacı, Ö. ve Eryiğit, K. Y. (2012), “A Thresold Regression Estimation of Phillips Curve: Turkey Case”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7, 29-47.
  • Aşırım, O. (1995), “Output Inflation Tradeoff: Evidence From Turkey. The Central Bank Of the Republic of Turkey”, http://www.econturk.org/Turkisheconomy/9506.pdf.
  • Ball, L. (1994), “What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?”, Monetary Policy, (ss. 155 – 193). Derleyen N.G. Mankiw. University of Chicago.
  • Beaudry, P. ve Doyle, M. (2000), “What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada?”, Bank of Canada, http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2000/beaudryfinal.pdf.
  • Bhattarai R. K., (2004), “ Unemployment-Inflation Trade-offs in OECD Countries: Lessons From Panel Data and Theories of Unemployment”, http://www. hull.ac.uk/ php/ecskrb/ uninfl.pdf
  • Blanchard, O. ve Gali, J. (2007), “Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39 (1), 35-64.
  • Büyükakın, T. (2008), “Phillips Eğrisi Yarım Yüzyıldır Bitmeyen Tartışma”, İ. Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 39, 133-159.
  • Clark, P. B. ve Laxton, D. (1997), “Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemployment Costs of Overheating”, IMF Research Department, (WP/97/17).
  • Çetinkaya, A.A. ve Yavuz, D. (2002), “Calculation of Output-Inflation Sacrifice Ratio: The Case of Turkey”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, (11).
  • Daly, M. C. ve Hobijn, B. (2013), “Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, 1-47. De Veirman, E. (2006), “Which Nonlinearity in the Phillips Curve? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan”, Johns Hopkins University, http://www.econ.jhu.edu/jobmarket/ 2005/ deveirman/PaperJune23.pdf. Department Working Paper, (11).
There are 12 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Metin Bayrak This is me

Osman Cenk Kanca This is me

Publication Date September 1, 2013
Submission Date November 2, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 8 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Bayrak, M., & Kanca, O. C. (2013). Türkiye’de Phillips Eğrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(3), 97-116.