Investigation of the Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Oil Prices with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Approach

Year 2021, Volume: 16 Issue: 3, 638 - 650, 01.12.2021

Murat Eren Serkan Künü Bengü Tosun

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.910944

Abstract

In this study, the effect of terrorist attacks on oil prices was analyzed by considering oil consumption. In the study conducted with the 2001-2018 period data for 10 oil-exporting countries with the most terrorist attacks, the relationship between the variables was analyzed using the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator. The findings show that the increase in terrorist attacks and oil consumption increases the oil prices. With this study, it is aimed to examine the effect of terrorist attacks, which are considered to be largely external, on energy costs and to contribute to the projections by presenting data to the official authorities on how energy costs will develop in the event of possible terrorist attacks.

Keywords

Terrorism, Oil Prices, DCCE

Terör Saldırılarının Petrol Fiyatları Üzerindeki Etkisinin Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Yaklaşımı ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, terörist faaliyetlerin petrol fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi petrol tüketimi de göz önünde bulundurularak incelenmiştir. En çok terör eylemi meydana gelen 10 petrol ihraç eden ülke için 2001 – 2018 dönemi verileri ile yürütülen çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler tahmincisi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, terör olaylarındaki ve petrol tüketimindeki artışın petrol fiyatlarını artırdığını göstermiştir. Bu çalışma ile büyük ölçüde dışsal olarak kabul edilen terör eylemlerinin enerji maliyetleri üzerindeki etkisini incelemek ve olası terör saldırıları durumunda enerji maliyetlerinin ne yönde gelişeceğini tespit ederek resmi otoritelere oluşturacakları projeksiyonlarda veri sağlamak amaçlanmıştır.

Keywords

Terörizm, Petrol Fiyatları, DCCE

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