The Impact of Inflation Targeting on Public Debt: An Evidence from Propensity Score Matching Approach

Year 2022, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 479 - 501, 01.08.2022

Aymar Berenger Ismael Nana İsmail Onur Baycan

Abstract

This study uses the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach to examine the impact of adopting the Inflation Targeting (IT) policy on internal and external public debt both for the groups of advanced and developing economies. We investigate the matching results to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by employing different matching methods of nearest-neighbor, radius, stratification, and kernel matching. Our results are robust and statistically significantly reveal that adopting the IT policy reduces external public debt both for developed and developing economies. Moreover, on average, the adoption of IT policy leads to a statistically significant reduction of internal public debt for developing economies.

Keywords

Propensity Score Matching, Inflation Targeting, Public Debt

Enflasyon Hedeflemesinin Kamu Borçlarına Etkisi: Eğilim Skoru Eşleştirme Yöntemleri ile Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının iç ve dış kamu borcu üzerindeki etkisini gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke gurupları için eğilim skoru eşleştirme yöntemini kullanarak inceler. Enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin ortalama işlem etkisi ile işleme tabi olanlar üzerindeki ortalama işlem etkilerini tahmin etmek için en yakın komşu eşleştirme, radyan, katmanlaştırma ve kernel eşleştirme olmak üzere dört eşleştirme yöntemi ile analiz eder. Sonuçlar, enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının dış kamu borcunu hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için azalttığını güçlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde ortaya koyar. Ayrıca enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanmasının gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde iç kamu borcunu azalttığı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde ortaya konulur.

Keywords

Eğilim Skoru Eşleştirme, Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Kamu Borcu

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