Kamu Borcu ve Ekonomik Büyüme Dinamiklerinin Dalgacık Analizi: 6 Avro Bölgesi Ekonomisinden Kanıt

Year 2024, , 925 - 943, 10.10.2024

Gökhan Çobanoğulları

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1486346

Abstract

Bu makale, avro bölgesindeki 6 ülkede (Belçika, Fransa, Yunanistan, İtalya, Portekiz ve İspanya) kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 2000Ç1'den 2023Ç3'e kadar dalgacık analizi kullanarak incelemektedir. Çapraz dalgacık gücü ve dalgacık tutarlığı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, incelenen dönemde kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin hem kısa (0.5-2 çeyreklik frekans) hem de uzun ölçeklerde (2-4 arası çeyreklik frekans) yüksek korelasyon gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Her iki analiz sonucunda, farklı dönem ve frekanslar için ülkelerin sonuçları birbirinden farklı çıksa da genel olarak kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki negatif yönlüdür. Ayrıca, çapraz dalgacık gücü tahmin sonuçlarına göre, 2018-2022 döneminde İtalya, Yunanistan ve Fransa’da kısa dönemde yapılan borçlanmanın ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ettiği fakat uzun dönemde ise bazı ülkelerde ekonomik büyümenin negatif etkilendiği görülmüştür. Ek olarak, Avrupa borç krizi ve korona virüs pandemi döneminde ülkelerin ortaya koyduğu kamu borç-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi birbirleri ile senkronize hareket ettiği görülmekle birlikte bu dönemde, neoklasik görüşün geçerli olduğunu ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç olarak, özellikle borç kriz dönemlerinde, politika yapıcılarının ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyen kamu borcunu azaltmaya yönelik mali kuralları belirlemesi gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır.

Keywords

Kamu borcu, Ekonomik Büyüme, Avro Bölgesi, Dalgacık Analizi.

Wavelet Analysis of Public Debt and Economic Growth Dynamics: Evidence from 6 Eurozone Economies

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between public debt and economic growth in 6 countries in the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) using wavelet analysis from 2000Q1 to 2023Q3. The cross- wavelet power and wavelet coherence estimation results revealed a high correlation between public debt and economic growth on both short (0.5-2 quarterly frequency) and long (2-4 quarterly frequency) scales during the examined period. Both analyses revealed that the relationship between public debt and economic growth was generally negative, even though the results varied at different frequencies and in different periods. The cross- wavelet power estimation results revealed that short-term borrowing in Italy, Greece, and France during the 2018- 2022 period stimulated economic growth, but some countries experienced negative long-term effects. In addition, it has been demonstrated that the public debt-economic growth relationship demonstrated by countries during the European debt crisis and the coronavirus pandemic period was synchronous with each other, and that the neoclassical view was valid during this period. As a result, it has become clear that, especially in times of debt crisis, policymakers should determine fiscal rules to reduce public debt, which negatively affects economic growth.

Keywords

Public debt, Economic Growth, Eurozone, Wavelet Analysis

References

• Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2011). Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 477-489.
• Aguiar-Conraria, L., Azevedo, N., & Soares, M. J. (2008). Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy. Physica A: Statistical mechanics and its Applications, 387(12), 2863-2878.
• Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M., & Soares, M. J. (2012). The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12), 1950-1970.
• Albu, A. C., & Albu, L. L. (2021). Public debt and economic growth in Euro area countries. A wavelet approach. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(3), 602-625.
• Alsamara, M., Mrabet, Z., & Mimouni, K. (2024). The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter?. International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 458-470.
• Bal, D., & Rath, B. (2014). Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment. Economic Analysis and Policy , 44, 292-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EAP.2014.05.007.
• Barro, R. J. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth?. Journal of Political Economy, 82 (November), pp.1095–1117
• Bökemeier, B., & Greiner, A. (2013). On the relation between public debt and economic growth: An empirical investigation. Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management No. 24-2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2362788
• Burhanudin, M. D. A., Muda, R., Nathan, S. B. S., & Arshad, R. (2017). Real effects of government debt on sustainable economic growth in Malaysia. Journal of International Studies, 10(3).
• Chen, C., Yao, S., Hu, P., & Lin, Y. (2017). Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model. China Economic Review, 45, 257-278.
• Chiu, Y, & Lee, C.-C. (2017). On The Impact Of Public Debton Economic Growth: Does Country Risk Matter? Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(4), 751–766. doi:10.1111/coep.12228.
• Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M., & Raissi, M. (2017). Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99, 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00593.
• Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. Q. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low- income countries. IMF Working Paper No. 03/249. Washington DC.: International Monetary Fund.
• Çelik, S., & Başkonuş Direkci, T. (2013). Türkiye’de 2001 krizi öncesi ve sonrası dönemler için dış borç ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi (1991-2010). Electronic Turkish Studies, 8(3).
• Çetin, İ. (2020). Kamu borcu-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ampirik bir analiz. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 57(654), 175-189.
• Demir, M., & Sever, E. (2008). Kamu iç borçlanmasının büyüme, faiz ve enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkileri. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(25), 170-196.
• Eberhardt, M. M., & Presbitero, A. (2013). This time they are different: heterogeneity and nonlinearity in the relationship between debt and growth. International Monetary Fund.
• Fincke, B., & Greiner, A. (2015). Public debt and economic growth in emerging market economies. South African Journal of Economics, 83(3), 357-370.
• Gómez-Puig, M., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2018). Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the Euro area. Acta Oeconomica, 68(2), 209-229.
• Gómez-Puig, M., Sosvilla-Rivero, S., & Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2022). On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 77, 101528.
• Kourtellos, A., Stengos, T., & Tan, C. M. (2013). The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes. Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, 35-43.
• Law, S. H., Ng, C. H., Kutan, A. M., & Law, Z. K. (2021). Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis. Economic Modelling, 98, 26-40.
• Mohamed, B. M. (2013). Assessing the short‐and long‐run real effects of public external debt: The case of Tunisia. African Development Review, 25(4), 587-606.
• Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. (2013). Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149, 175-204. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03399388.
• Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
• Pattillo, C. A., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. A. (2002). External debt and growth. Pattillo, Catherine and Poirson Ward, Helene and Ricci, Luca Antonio, External Debt and Growth (April 2002). IMF Working Paper No. 02/69, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879569.
• Puente-Ajovín, M., & Sanso-Navarro, M. (2015). Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 35, 66-77.
• Ramos-Herrera, M., & Sosvilla‐Rivero, S. (2017). An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth. Applied Economics, 49, 3495-3508. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1262522.
• Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American economic review, 100(2), 573- 578.
• Rösch, A., & Schmidbauer, H. (2016). WaveletComp 1.1: A guided tour through the R package. URL: http://www. hsstat. com/projects/WaveletComp/WaveletComp_guided_tour. pdf.
• Saungweme, T., & Odhiambo, N. (2018). The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature. Review of Black Political Economy, 45, 339-357. https://doi.org/10.1177/0034644619833655.
• Schclarek, A. (2004). Debt and economic growth in developing and industrial countries (Lund University Department of Economics Working Paper No. 34). Retrieved from http://portal. research.lu.se/portal/files/5740791/2061440.
• Swastika, P. (2016). The relative contribution of debt to Indonesian growth: A case study using Wavelet analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 2(1).
• Szabó, Z. (2013). The effect of sovereign debt on economic growth and economic development. Public Finance Quarterly= Pénzügyi Szemle, 58(3), 251-270.
• Torrence, C., & Compo, G. P. (1998). A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological society, 79(1), 61-78.
• Turan, T. (2019). Kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye için Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 1-27.
• Uzun, A., Karakoy, C., Kabadayi, B., & Emsen, O. S. (2012). The impacts of external debt on economic growth in transition economies. Chinese business review, 11(5).
• Zhao, G., Jiang, D., Diao, J., & Qian, L. (2004). Application of wavelet time-frequency analysis on fault diagnosis for steam turbine. In 5th International Conference of Acoustical and Vibratory Surveillance Methods and Diagnostic Techniques, France, CETIM. 11-13.