ojems Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 2148-4228 Usak University 10.17541/optimum.1640550 Applied Macroeconometrics Growth Employment Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri Büyüme İstihdam Türkiye'de İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Geçerli mi? İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6147-5443 Akusta Emre KIRKLARELI UNIVERSITY 07 01 2025 12 2 469 486 02 15 2025 06 08 2025 Copyright © 2014, Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2014 Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de istihdam yaratmayan büyümenin geçerliliğini sektörel düzeyde analiz etmektedir. 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak tarım, sanayi, inşaat ve hizmetler sektörlerinin işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Analiz kapsamında ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular FMOLS ve CCR yöntemleri ile sınanmıştır. Sonuçlar, tüm sektörlerde büyümenin işsizlik oranını azalttığını göstermektedir. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, kısa vadede işsizlik oranını 0.471 puan, sanayi sektöründe 0.680 puan, inşaat sektörünün 0.899 puan ve hizmetler sektöründe ise 1.383 puan düşürmektedir. Uzun dönem katsayıları, sektörel büyümenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkilerinin kısa döneme kıyasla daha güçlü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, işsizlik oranını uzun vadede 2.380 puan, sanayi sektöründe 4.057 puan, inşaat sektöründe 1.761 puan ve hizmet sektöründe 3.664 puan azaltmaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de genel olarak istihdamsız büyümenin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Aksine, ekonomik büyüme işsizliğin azaltılmasında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır.

This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Türkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Türkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment.

 Jobless growth Sectoral growth ARDL FMOLS CCR İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme Sektörel büyüme ARDL FMOLS CCR Abdioglu, Z., & Albayrak, N. (2017). İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme: alt sektörler bazında bir araştırma. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), 215-228. Aksoy, E. (2013). Relationships between employment and growth from industrial perspective by considering employment incentives: the case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), 74-86. Altuntepe, N., & Guner, T. (2013). Türkiye'de istihdam-büyüme ilişkisinin analizi (1988-2011). Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(1), 73-84. Barisik, S., Çevik, E. İ., & Çevik, N. K. (2010). Türkiye’de okun yasası, asimetri ilişkisi ve istihdam yaratmayan büyüme: Markov-Switching yaklaşımı. Maliye Dergisi, 159(2), 88-102. Behera, D. K. (2019). Determinants of employment potential in industrial sector: an Indian perspective. Estudios Economicos Regionales y Sectoriales: EERS: Regional and sectoral economic studies: RSES, 19(1), 47-62. Beyazit, M. F. (2004). Türkiye ekonomisi ve büyüme oranının sürdürülebilirliği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(1), 89-99. Blázquez-Fernández, C., Cantarero-Prieto, D., & Pascual-Sáez, M. (2018). Okun's Law in selected European Countries (2005-2017): An age and gender analysis. Economics and Sociology, 11(2), 263-274. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-2/18 Bogoviz, A. V., Sozinova, A. A., & Ostrovskaya, V. V. (2018). Approaches to managing economic growth of socio-economic systems. Management of changes in socio-economic systems, 131-137. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72613-7_11 Ceylan, S., & Sahin, B. Y. (2010). İşsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde asimetri. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(2), 157-165. Compagnucci, F., Gentili, A., Valentini, E., & Gallegati, M. (2021). Have jobs and wages stopped rising? Productivity and structural change in advanced countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 412-430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.003 Correira, L., & Alves, M. (2017). Regional employment in Portugal: Differences and cyclical synchronization. Regional Science Inquiry, 9(2), 159–175. Damioli, G., Van Roy, V., Vértesy, D., & Vivarelli, M. (2024). Drivers of employment dynamics of AI innovators. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 201, 123249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123249 Das, R. C., & Ray, K. (2020). Does globalisation influence employment? Empirical investigation on individual as well as panel of South Asian Countries. Review of Market Integration, 12(1-2), 7-34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974929220969222 Das, R. C., & Ray, K. (2022). Linkages between employment and net FDI inflow: Insights from individual as well as panel data for emerging South Asian Labour Market. Global Business Review, 23(3), 785-803. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919873501 Davidson, C., Heyman, F., Matusz, S., Sjöholm, F., & Zhu, S. C. (2020). Globalization, the jobs ladder and economic mobility. European Economic Review, 127, 103444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103444 Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531 Ghosh, J. (2011). The Challenge of Ensuring full employment in the twenty-first century. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 54(1), 51-68. Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974), ”Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal Of Econometrics, 2, 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7 Haider, A., Jabeen, S., Rankaduwa, W., & Shaheen, F. (2023). The Nexus between Employment and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. Sustainability, 15(15), 11955. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511955 Hamia, M. A. (2016). Wachstum ohne Beschäftigung–empirische Evidenz aus Nahost und Nordafrika. Journal for Labour Market Research, 49, 239-251. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-016-0207-z Hanusch, M. (2013). Jobless growth? Okun's law in East Asia. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 4(03), 1350014. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993313500142 Herr, H., & Sonat, Z. M. (2014). The fragile growth regime of Turkey in the post-2001 period. New Perspectives on Turkey, 51, 35-68. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0896634600006713 Jablanovic, V. D. (2017). The chaotic unemployment rate growth model: Euro area. Regional Science Inquiry, 9(1), 153-159. Jawad, M., & Naz, M. (2024). Global economic resilience: Analyzing the diverse impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the US, Pakistan, and the world. Journal of Public Affairs, 24(1), e2899. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2899 Johansen, S., & K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to The Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x Kaldor, N. (1966). Marginal productivity and the macro-economic theories of distribution: comment on Samuelson and Modigliani. The Review of Economic Studies, 33(4), 309-319. https://doi.org/10.2307/2974428 Kallioras, D., Tsiapa, M., & Zapantis, S. (2016). Spatial variations of employment change in Greece over the early-crisis period (2008-2011). Regional Science Inquiry, 8(1), 61-78. Karapinar, B. (2007). Rural transformation in Turkey 19802004: case studies from three regions. International journal of agricultural resources, governance and ecology, 6(4-5), 483-513. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJARGE.2007.013508 Klinger, S., & Weber, E. (2020). GDP-employment decoupling in Germany. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 82-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.10.003 Korkmaz, S., & Yılgör, M. (2010). 2001 Krizinden sonra Türkiye’de büyüme ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 8(14), 169-176. Lal, I., Muhammad, S. D., Jalil, M. A., & Hussain, A. (2010). Test of Okun’s law in some Asian countries co-integration approach. European journal of scientific research, 40(1), 73-80. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1562602 Li, G., Hou, Y., & Wu, A. (2017). Fourth Industrial Revolution: technological drivers, impacts and coping methods. Chinese Geographical Science, 27, 626-637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-017-0890-x Mitra, A. (2011). Trade in services: Impact on employment in India. The Social Science Journal, 48(1), 72-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2010.07.014 Murat, S. & Yılmaz Eser, B. (2013). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdam İlişkisi: İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Olgusunun Geçerliliği, Hak İş Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 2(3) 92-123. Ogul, B. (2022). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişmenin Vergi Gelirleri Üzerine Etkisinin Zaman Serisi Analizleri ile İncelenmesi. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(2), 967-979. https://doi.org/10.33437/ksusbd.1092460 Okun, A.M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. In Proceedings of the business and economics statistics, 98–104. Washington, DC: American Statistical Association. Onaran, O. (2008). Jobless growth in the Central and East European countries: a country-specific panel data analysis of the manufacturing industry. Eastern European Economics, 46(4), 90-115. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775460405 Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, B., & Lal, K. (2016). Structural Transformation and Economic Development: Cross regional analysis of industrialization and urbanization. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315560885 Ozdemir, B. K., & Yildirim, S. (2013). Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin analizi: özçıkarımlı dalgacık yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (38). Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679 Pehli̇vanoglu, F., & Ince, M. R. (2020). Long Term Analysis of Intersectoral Interdependence of Turkey’s Economy with Input Output Analysis Approach. Sosyoekonomi Journal, (28 (44)). https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.02.08 Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 Peters, M. A. (2019). Technological unemployment: Educating for the fourth industrial revolution. In The Chinese dream: Educating the future (pp. 99-107). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2016.1177412 Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545 Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335 Pieper, U. (2003). Sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries—a Kaldorian interpretation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 27(6), 831-850. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/27.6.831 Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance (MTF). (2024). Gross domestic product by economic activities. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2023/04/I-URETIM-3.pdf Rizvi S. Z. A., & Nishat M. (2009). The impact of foreign direct investment on employment opportunities: Panel data analysis: Empirical evidence from Pakistan, India and China. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), 841–851. Saratchand, C. (2019). Some Macro-theoretical Foundations of Jobless Growth. Economic & Political Weekly, 54(13), 17. Takim, A. (2010). Türkiye’de GSYİH ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki: granger nedensellik testi. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 315-330. Tejani, S. (2016). Jobless growth in India: an investigation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(3), 843-870. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bev025 Tuncer, İ., & Altiok, M. (2012). Türkiye imalat sanayinde büyüme ve büyümenin istihdam yoğunluğu: 1980-2008 dönemi. Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 3(1), 1-22. Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), (2025). Gross domestic product by economic activities. https://data.tuik.gov.tr Ugurlu, S., & Keser, E. (2020). Dış ticaretin gelişiminde lojistik sektörünün rolü: ekonometrik bir analiz. Social Mentality and Researcher Thinkers Journal, 6(37), 2061-2069. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.31576/smryj.670 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (1996). Human development report 1996. Oxford University Press. Verdoorn, J. P. (1949). On the factors determining the growth of labor productivity. Italian economic papers, 2, 59-68.