RUSSIA AND THE ARAB SPRING: ADJUSTING TO A NEW POLITICAL VISTA

Year 2014, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 28 - 49, 01.07.2014

Middle East

Abstract

Until the beginning of the Arab Spring, the Russian authorities had the false perception that the Middle East is a relatively stable political and economic system. As they presume, even periodically emerging conflicts were unable to change the existing balance of power unless external powers involved as it happened with Iraq in 2003 . Subsequently, Moscow merely missed the beginning of the Arab Spring considering it as a minor turmoil which will be unable to bring any structural changes. Even the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt on 11 February 2011 did not make the authorities of the RF reconsider the situation. Russia literally ‘woke up’ only after the murder of Muammar Qaddafi on 20 October 2011, and this was indeed ‘the morning after the night before’. As stated by Russian analysts, during the Arab Spring, the losses of their country from the political turmoil in the Middle East were hardly comparable with the losses of any other non-regional player

Keywords

Arab Spring, Russia, Syria

RUSYA VE ARAP BAHARI: YENİ SİYASİ GÖRÜNÜME UYUM SAĞLAMAK

Abstract

Arap Baharı başlayıncaya kadar, Rus yetkililer Ortadoğu’nun nispeten istikrarlı siyasi ve ekonomik yapıya sahip olduğu konusunda yanlış bir algıya sahiptiler. Onların varsayımlarına göre periyodik olarak ortaya çıkan olaylar bile 2003 yılında Irak’ta olduğu gibi dış güçler müdahil olmadıkça bölgedeki mevcut güç dengesini değiştiremezdi. Bundan dolayı Moskova, herhangi bir yapısal değişiklik getirmesine ihtimal vermediği ve küçük bir çalkantı olarak gördüğü Arap Baharı’nın sadece başlagıcını kaçırmış oldu. 11 Şubat 2011 tarihinde Mısır’da Cumhurbaşkanı Hüsnü Mübarek’in düşüşü bile Rusya Federasyonu’ndaki yetkililerin olayı yeniden ele alması noktasında harekete geçirememişti. Fakat Rusya, tam olarak 20 Ekim 2011 tarihinde Muammer Kaddafi’nin öldürülmesinden sonra ‘uyanmaya’ başlamıştı ve aslında bu olay Rusya için ‘geç kalmış bir uyanış’ olmuştu. Rus analistler tarafından belirtildiği gibi, Arap Baharı esnasında kendi ülkelerinin Ortadoğu’daki siyasi kargaşada yaşayacağı kayıp diğer bölgesel olmayan oyuncuların kayıpları ile karşılaştırılabilecek düzeyde değildir

Keywords

Arap Baharı, Rusya, Suriye

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