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SUMMARY OF U.S. MONETARY FIGURES IN GENERAL IN THE LIGHT OF FED’S DECISION ON TAPERING REDUCTION, ECONOMICS EXPECTATIONS

Year 2018, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 426 - 436, 01.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929

Abstract

Purpose- The world's number one economy has led to the first major global crisis of the new millennium, and it (U.S.) has adopted monetary policy decisions to get rid of its consequences. In the light of critical monetary indicators after 2014 and the first reduction decision of the quantitative easing (the asset purchase program), it is desired to analyze the possible economic and financial anticipations with a brief review.

Methodology- From various macro (monetary) indicators of the FED, U.S. Treasury and the U.S., the critical ones after 2014 were interpreted with a simple econometric analysis (correlation) and supported by literature were analyzed together with the FED asset purchase reduction.

Findings- Correlation test results confirm a very strong correlation between M1, M2, emission figures and consumer loans as well as savings deposits between 2014-2017. FED asset purchase program has been completed. By tightening of its balance sheet the probability of a sharp decline in consumer credits / savings deposits could be seen and negative effects could also happen on the commercial banks’ profitabilities.

Conclusion- Commercial banks will accompany unwillingly to FED’s interest rate hike due to strong correlation findings. Liquidity problems together with decreased revenues could lead to a new banking / financial crisis. Significant changes in U.S. Treasury and its fiscal policies are inevitable by the FED replacement. The first signals are observed with the launch of trade wars declaration together with currency wars.

References

  • Astrow, A. (2012). Gold and the international monetary system. Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs. A report by the Chatham House Gold Taskforce, Rapporteur: André Astrow. p. vii. February 2012. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/ chathamhouse/public/Research/International%20Economics/r0212gold.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Ball, L., Gagnon J., Honohan, P., Krogstrup, S. (2016). What else can central banks do? Geneva Reports on the World Economy 18, pp.15-46. International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/geneva_reports/GenevaP285.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Bernanke, B. (2017). Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. The Brookings Institution Web Site. Thursday, January 26, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/01/26/shrinking-the-feds-balance-sheet/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2014). İstanbul’a iktisadi bir yönetim ekolü lazım. Haftalık Şalom Gazetesi Ekonomi Web Sayfası, 12 Kasım 2014, http://www.salom.com.tr/haber-92971-Istanbula_iktisadi_bir_yonetim_ekolu_lazim.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2016). Will the central banking be the center of banking?. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, Vol. IV, Issue 5, pp.656-673, May 2016, http://ijecm.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/4543.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2018). Fed; EX aşkımızı unutmadık. Haftalık Şalom Gazetesi Ekonomi Web Sayfası, 18 Nisan 2018, http://www.salom.com.tr/haber-106557-fed_ex_askimizi_unutmadik.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2018).
  • Federalreserve.gov. (Anonim). Federal Reserve web site, Data page, Money Stock Measures - H.6, Data Download Program (DDP), https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=H6, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • Federalreserve.gov. (Anonim). Federal Reserve web site, Data page, Household Finance, Consumer Credits - G.19, Data Download Program (DDP), https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G19, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • IBM.com. (2012). IBM SPSS Statistics. http://www-01.ibm.com/support/docview.wss?uid=swg24032236, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Ieconomics.com, (Anonim). Makro Ekonomik Veri Tabanı Arama Motoru, https://ieconomics.com/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Jacobs, J., Hull, D. (2017). Trump wants U.S. return to moon, sets no deadlines for NASA. Bloomberg.com News Quint Web Site. Updated on 12 December 2017, 4:57 pm, published on 11 December 2017, 9:45. https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2017/12/11/trump-to-direct-nasa-to-send-astronauts-back-to-moon-and-to-mars, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • JASP Team (2018). JASP (Version 0.8.6), Jeffreys’s Amazing Statistics Program, https://jasp-stats.org/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Karataş, Z. (2014). Regresyon, korelasyon ve faktör analizi, sosyal hizmette ileri istatistik uygulamaları dersi notları. https://www.academia.edu/9850404/Regresyon_Korelasyon_ve_Fakt%C3%B6r_Analizi, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • Meigs, A. J., Wolman, W. (1971) Central banks and the money supply. Paper was presented at the Second Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Konstanz, Germany, held from June 24 to 26, 1971, pp.18-30, Saint Louis FED. https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/71/08/Central_Aug1971.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Monaghan, A., (2014). U.S. Federal Reserve to end quantitative easing programme. The Guardian News Web Site. Wed 29 Oct 2014 - 18.27 GMT, Last modified on Thu 30 Nov 2017 - 06.22 GMT. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/29/us-federal-reserve-end-quantitative-easing-programme, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1896a). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. III. Regression, heredity, and panmixia. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Ser. A 187: pp.253–318. https://ia800301.us.archive.org/29/items/philtrans00702488/00702488.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1900b). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. VII. On the correlation of characters not quantitatively measurable. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Ser. A 195: pp.1–47. https://ia800504.us.archive.org/35/items/ philtrans05420907/05420907.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1920c). Notes on the history of correlation. Biometrika 13: pp.25–45. http://webspace.ship.edu/pgmarr/ Geo441/Readings/Pearson%201920%20-%20Notes%20on%20the%20History %20of%20Correlation.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Randow, J., Diamond, J. S., Warren, H. (2017). When will the ECB pull its trillions from the markets?. Bloomberg.com News Web Site. Published: July 20, 2017 | Updated: March 7, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-ecb-monetary-stimulus-exit-tracker/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Superville, D. (2018). Trump: ‘Rich guys, they love rocket ships, and that’s good’. The Washington Post News Web Site. 8 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-rich-guys-they-love-rocket-ships-and-thats-good/2018/03/08/975f3740-230c-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html?utm_term=.6ecf3ad96929, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Şişman, M. (2014). İkinci Bretton Woods çökerken dünya ekonomisi ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine değerlendirmeler. MÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24 (1), 65-80. http://dergipark.gov.tr/muiibd/issue/483/4106, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Tradingeconomics.com. (Anonim). Makro ekonomik veri tabanı arama motoru. https://tradingeconomics.com/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • World Federation of Exchanges. (Anonim). WEF (Dünya Borsalar Federasyonu) web site. Statistics web page. https://www.world-exchanges.org/home/index.php/statistics, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Yardeni.com. (Anonim). Yardeni Research Web Site, Chronology of FED’s quantitative easing. https://www.yardeni.com/chronology-of-feds-quantitative-easing/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Yavuz, A. (2010). Küresel kriz ve istihdama etkisi. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 0 (58), ss.5-9. http://dergipark.gov.tr/ iusskd/issue/887/9863, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Yeldan, E. (2009). Kapitalizmin yeniden finansallaşması ve 2007/2008 krizi: Türkiye krizin neresinde? Çalışma ve Toplum Ekonomi ve Hukuk Dergisi, 2009/1, s.15, http://calismatoplum.org/sayi20/yeldan.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).

FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER

Year 2018, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 426 - 436, 01.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929

Abstract

Amaç – Dünyanın 1 numaralı ekonomisi yeni milenyumun ilk büyük küresel krizine yol açmış ve bunun sonuçlarından kurtulmak için para politikası kararlarını devreye almıştır. Parasal genişlemenin (varlık alım programının) ilk azaltımı kararı sonrası olan 2014’den bu yana ekonomisindeki parasal göstergeler ışığında özet bir inceleme ile olası beklentiler analiz edilmek istenmiştir.

Yöntem - FED, ABD Hazinesi ve ABD’nin çeşitli makro (parasal) göstergelerinden 2014 sonrası kritik olanlar istatistiksel, basit ekonometrik analiz (korelasyon) ile ve özet olarak incelenmiş, literatür analizi ile desteklenerek FED varlık alımı azaltımı sonrası dönemle yorumlanmıştır.

Bulgular- Korelasyon testi sonuçları M1, M2 ve emisyon para arzı verileri ile tüketici kredileri ve vadeli tasarruf mevduatları arasında 2014-2017 yılları arasında güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu teyit etmektedir. FED varlık alım programını tamamlamıştır. Bilançosunda daraltmanın başlaması ile ABD’de tüketici kredilerinde ve vadeli tasarruflarda gerileme olması ve banka karlılıklarında olumsuz etkiler yaratması olasılığı yüksektir.

Sonuç- FED’in faiz artışları ile korelasyon bulguları ışığıında ABD bankaları ister istemez faiz artışına eşlik edecektir. Azalan likidite ile beraber gelirlerde düşüş yeni krizlere zemin hazırlayabilir. ABD’nin kamu borcunun finansmanında FED’in devre dışı kalması ile ABD hazine ve maliye politikalarında önemli değişimler gözlenebilir. Bunun ilk ipuçları kur savaşları ile beraber ticaret savaşlarının başlaması ile gözlenmektedir.

References

  • Astrow, A. (2012). Gold and the international monetary system. Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs. A report by the Chatham House Gold Taskforce, Rapporteur: André Astrow. p. vii. February 2012. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/ chathamhouse/public/Research/International%20Economics/r0212gold.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Ball, L., Gagnon J., Honohan, P., Krogstrup, S. (2016). What else can central banks do? Geneva Reports on the World Economy 18, pp.15-46. International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/geneva_reports/GenevaP285.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Bernanke, B. (2017). Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. The Brookings Institution Web Site. Thursday, January 26, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/01/26/shrinking-the-feds-balance-sheet/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2014). İstanbul’a iktisadi bir yönetim ekolü lazım. Haftalık Şalom Gazetesi Ekonomi Web Sayfası, 12 Kasım 2014, http://www.salom.com.tr/haber-92971-Istanbula_iktisadi_bir_yonetim_ekolu_lazim.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2016). Will the central banking be the center of banking?. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, Vol. IV, Issue 5, pp.656-673, May 2016, http://ijecm.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/4543.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Dirican, C. (2018). Fed; EX aşkımızı unutmadık. Haftalık Şalom Gazetesi Ekonomi Web Sayfası, 18 Nisan 2018, http://www.salom.com.tr/haber-106557-fed_ex_askimizi_unutmadik.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2018).
  • Federalreserve.gov. (Anonim). Federal Reserve web site, Data page, Money Stock Measures - H.6, Data Download Program (DDP), https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=H6, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • Federalreserve.gov. (Anonim). Federal Reserve web site, Data page, Household Finance, Consumer Credits - G.19, Data Download Program (DDP), https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G19, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • IBM.com. (2012). IBM SPSS Statistics. http://www-01.ibm.com/support/docview.wss?uid=swg24032236, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Ieconomics.com, (Anonim). Makro Ekonomik Veri Tabanı Arama Motoru, https://ieconomics.com/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Jacobs, J., Hull, D. (2017). Trump wants U.S. return to moon, sets no deadlines for NASA. Bloomberg.com News Quint Web Site. Updated on 12 December 2017, 4:57 pm, published on 11 December 2017, 9:45. https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2017/12/11/trump-to-direct-nasa-to-send-astronauts-back-to-moon-and-to-mars, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • JASP Team (2018). JASP (Version 0.8.6), Jeffreys’s Amazing Statistics Program, https://jasp-stats.org/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Karataş, Z. (2014). Regresyon, korelasyon ve faktör analizi, sosyal hizmette ileri istatistik uygulamaları dersi notları. https://www.academia.edu/9850404/Regresyon_Korelasyon_ve_Fakt%C3%B6r_Analizi, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2018).
  • Meigs, A. J., Wolman, W. (1971) Central banks and the money supply. Paper was presented at the Second Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Konstanz, Germany, held from June 24 to 26, 1971, pp.18-30, Saint Louis FED. https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/71/08/Central_Aug1971.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Monaghan, A., (2014). U.S. Federal Reserve to end quantitative easing programme. The Guardian News Web Site. Wed 29 Oct 2014 - 18.27 GMT, Last modified on Thu 30 Nov 2017 - 06.22 GMT. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/29/us-federal-reserve-end-quantitative-easing-programme, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1896a). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. III. Regression, heredity, and panmixia. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Ser. A 187: pp.253–318. https://ia800301.us.archive.org/29/items/philtrans00702488/00702488.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1900b). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. VII. On the correlation of characters not quantitatively measurable. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Ser. A 195: pp.1–47. https://ia800504.us.archive.org/35/items/ philtrans05420907/05420907.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Pearson, K. (1920c). Notes on the history of correlation. Biometrika 13: pp.25–45. http://webspace.ship.edu/pgmarr/ Geo441/Readings/Pearson%201920%20-%20Notes%20on%20the%20History %20of%20Correlation.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Randow, J., Diamond, J. S., Warren, H. (2017). When will the ECB pull its trillions from the markets?. Bloomberg.com News Web Site. Published: July 20, 2017 | Updated: March 7, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-ecb-monetary-stimulus-exit-tracker/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Superville, D. (2018). Trump: ‘Rich guys, they love rocket ships, and that’s good’. The Washington Post News Web Site. 8 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-rich-guys-they-love-rocket-ships-and-thats-good/2018/03/08/975f3740-230c-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html?utm_term=.6ecf3ad96929, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Şişman, M. (2014). İkinci Bretton Woods çökerken dünya ekonomisi ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine değerlendirmeler. MÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24 (1), 65-80. http://dergipark.gov.tr/muiibd/issue/483/4106, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Tradingeconomics.com. (Anonim). Makro ekonomik veri tabanı arama motoru. https://tradingeconomics.com/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • World Federation of Exchanges. (Anonim). WEF (Dünya Borsalar Federasyonu) web site. Statistics web page. https://www.world-exchanges.org/home/index.php/statistics, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Yardeni.com. (Anonim). Yardeni Research Web Site, Chronology of FED’s quantitative easing. https://www.yardeni.com/chronology-of-feds-quantitative-easing/, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Yavuz, A. (2010). Küresel kriz ve istihdama etkisi. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 0 (58), ss.5-9. http://dergipark.gov.tr/ iusskd/issue/887/9863, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
  • Yeldan, E. (2009). Kapitalizmin yeniden finansallaşması ve 2007/2008 krizi: Türkiye krizin neresinde? Çalışma ve Toplum Ekonomi ve Hukuk Dergisi, 2009/1, s.15, http://calismatoplum.org/sayi20/yeldan.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.03.2018).
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Cuneyt Dirican 0000-0001-6622-3926

Publication Date September 1, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Dirican, C. (2018). FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER. PressAcademia Procedia, 7(1), 426-436. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929
AMA Dirican C. FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER. PAP. September 2018;7(1):426-436. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929
Chicago Dirican, Cuneyt. “FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER”. PressAcademia Procedia 7, no. 1 (September 2018): 426-36. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929.
EndNote Dirican C (September 1, 2018) FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER. PressAcademia Procedia 7 1 426–436.
IEEE C. Dirican, “FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER”, PAP, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 426–436, 2018, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929.
ISNAD Dirican, Cuneyt. “FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER”. PressAcademia Procedia 7/1 (September 2018), 426-436. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929.
JAMA Dirican C. FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER. PAP. 2018;7:426–436.
MLA Dirican, Cuneyt. “FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER”. PressAcademia Procedia, vol. 7, no. 1, 2018, pp. 426-3, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.929.
Vancouver Dirican C. FED VARLIK ALIM AZALTIMI KARARI IŞIĞINDA ABD PARASAL GÖSTERGELERİ GENEL ÖZETİ, EKONOMİK BEKLENTİLER. PAP. 2018;7(1):426-3.

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