A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS ON NETWORK TRAFFIC FORECASTING

Year 2025, Volume: 21 Issue: 1, 54 - 58, 30.07.2025

Buse Dilan Uslan , Ferhan Çebi

Abstract

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of four different time series forecasting models applied to mobile network traffic data, a domain characterized by high variability and complex seasonal patterns. Accurate forecasting of mobile capacity needs in the telecommunications sector is of great importance for providing uninterrupted and high-quality service. Since each network is unique, it is necessary to build a model that best predicts the seasonal traffic changes of the network.
Methodology- This research utilizes a comparative approach by implementing SARIMA, Prophet, LSTM, and a novel hybrid Prophet-LSTM model on monthly mobile traffic data from a telecommunications operator. The models were evaluated based on standard error metrics including MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 score.
Findings- The hybrid model leverages Prophet’s trend-seasonality decomposition with LSTM’s capability to learn nonlinear residual dynamics. The analysis reveals that the hybrid Prophet-LSTM model significantly outperforms the standalone SARIMA, LSTM, and Prophet models in terms of forecasting accuracy, flexibility, and adaptability. While SARIMA was limited in capturing complex, long-term trends and nonlinear fluctuations, LSTM required extensive hyperparameter tuning and was sensitive to data structure. Prophet proved to be effective in handling trend and seasonality with minimal parameter tuning, making it particularly suitable for cyclic patterns commonly observed in the telecommunications sector. However, the hybrid model’s ability to leverage Prophet’s decomposition strengths along with LSTM’s temporal learning capacity enabled it to deliver the most robust predictions with the lowest error rates.
Conclusion- This model offers direct practical applications in network capacity planning, financial forecasting, and resource optimization processes. Moreover, it can be adapted for use in other sectors such as energy, transportation, and finance that rely heavily on time series data. Based on these findings, the hybrid Prophet-LSTM model is recommended for mobile traffic forecasting tasks involving both seasonal and nonlinear dynamics. Future studies may incorporate real-time streaming data and external factors to further improve predictive performance and real-world applicability.

Keywords

Network traffic prediction , SARIMA , Prophet , LSTM , hybrid model

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