pausbed Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 1308-2922 2147-6985 Pamukkale University 10.30794/pausbed.1794855 Time-Series Analysis Zaman Serileri Analizi THE IMPACT OF TÜRKİYE'S MARITIME TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION TÜRKİYE’NİN DENİZ YOLU TAŞIMACILIĞI PERFORMANSININ İHRACAT PAZAR PENETRASYONU ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1237-8214 Yıldırım Salih Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi 12 29 2025 Sayı:71 (EYS'25 Özel Sayısı) 199 212 10 01 2025 10 31 2025 Copyright © 2008, Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute 2008 Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between Turkiye's maritime logistics performance and export market penetration. Covering the period 1990–2023, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to analyze both short- and long-term relationships. In the model, export market penetration is used as the dependent variable, while container port traffic, shipping fleet size, real exchange rate, and number of export partners are included as independent variables. The long-term estimation results indicate a significant relationship between maritime logistics performance and export market penetration. Specifically, a 1% increase in container traffic at ports and in the shipping fleet size increases export market penetration by 0.16% and 0.40%, respectively. The real exchange rate has a significant impact on export market penetration. The short-term forecast results indicate that export market penetration can be adjusted by the size of the shipping fleet, the real exchange rate, and the number of export partners. The study contributes to the literature by empirically demonstrating the decisive role of maritime transport performance in increasing export market penetration in the case of Turkiye and provides policymakers with guiding recommendations.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin deniz yolu taşımacılığı performansı ile ihracat pazar penetrasyonu arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. 1990-2023 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif modeli (ARDL) tahmin edilerek, kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Modelde bağımlı değişken olarak ihracat pazar penetrasyonu, bağımsız değişkenler olarak limanlardaki konteyner trafiği, deniz ticaret filosu büyüklüğü, reel döviz kuru ve ihracat partneri sayısı kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem tahmin sonuçları, deniz yolu taşımacılığı performansı ile ihracat pazar penetrasyonu arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiyi açıklamaktadır. Limanlardaki konteyner trafiği ve deniz ticaret filosundaki %1’lik artış, ihracat pazar penetrasyonunu sırasıyla %0.16 ve %0.40 artırmaktadır. Reel döviz kuru, ihracat pazar penetrasyonu üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Kısa dönem tahmin sonuçları, ihracat pazar penetrasyonunun deniz ticaret filosu büyüklüğü, reel döviz kuru ve ihracat partneri sayısı ile düzeltilebileceğine işaret etmektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye örneğinde ihracat pazar penetrasyonunun artışında deniz yolu taşımacılığı performansının belirleyici rolünü ampirik olarak ortaya koyarak literatüre katkı sağlamakta ve politika yapıcılara yönlendirici öneriler sunmaktadır.

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