The Energy Interdependence Model between Russia and Europe: An Evaluation of Expectations for Change

Abstract

This paper attempts to identify what kind of changes have occurred in the interdependence model and energy dialogue regime between Russia and Europe. The energy dialogue regime was constructed during the Cold War years to manage the gas exchange between Moscow and the West. The economic rationale of this regime was to ensure absolute gain, while the political rationale was to keep Russia as a constrained giant within the economic logic of interdependence and prevent any assertive action on Russia’s part. After the demise of the Soviets, changes in the overall and issue based power capabilities, in the economy and technology led to an expectation of regime change. Though the interdependence model retained its strength, the dependence on Russian gas was politicised in European circles and the Europeans began to implement new energy security measures as well as diversification strategies. This paper, by reconsidering turning points in the Post-Cold War interdependence like the 2006, 2009, and 2014 crises, tries to predict how interdependence will evolve in the short and long term

Keywords

• Interdependence model, Russia, Europe, natural gas, energy dialogue regime.

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