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Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring

Year 2013, Volume: 18 Issue: 4, 139 - 170, 01.01.2013

Abstract

The Arab Spring has created a fertile ground for the competition of different models Turkish, Iranian and Saudi and for a new balance of power in the Middle East and North Africa. These three models, based on three distinct styles of politics, go hand in hand with competing particular politics of Islam. Their search for a new order in the region synthesises covert and overt claims for regional leadership, national interests and foreign policy priorities. This article argues that the new emerging regional order will be established on either a theo-political understanding, in other words on securitisation and alliances based on sectarian polarisation which will lead to more interference from non-regional actors, or on a gradual reform process of economic integration and diplomatic compromise. In the first case, biases and negative perceptions will be deepened in reference to history and to differences in religious interpretation, and will result in conflict, animosity and outside interference. In the second case, there will be a chance to establish a cooperative regional, nonsectarian perspective accompanied by a critical, but not radical, attitude towards the West

References

  • The authors are very grateful to Eric Hougland, Kemal İnat, Talip Küçükcan, Hasan Kösebalaban, Talha Köse and Ali Balcı for having taken the trouble to comment on the draft. Needless to say, the authors alone are responsible for any mistakes that may have remained.
  • Mohammed Ayoob, The Many Faces of Political Islam, Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 2008, p. 56.
  • Roger Owen, “The Arab ‘Demonstration’ Effect and the Revival of Arab Unity in the Arab Spring”, Contemporary Arab Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3 (2012), p. 374.
  • See, Nathan J. Brown et al., The Emerging Order in the Middle East, Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/24/ emerging-order-in-middle-east/awff# [last visited 12 October 2013]; Katerina Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East: Political Change and Geopolitical Implications”, International Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 1 (January 2012), p. 75.
  • Fred Dallmayr, “Radical Changes in the Muslim World: Turkey, Iran, Egypt”, Globalizations, Vol. 8, No. 5 (2011), p. 640.
  • Ayoob, The Many Faces of Political Islam, pp. 32-33.
  • See, Olivier Roy, “The Transformation of the Arab World”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), p. 11.
  • See, Michael Bauer and Thomas Schiller, The Arab Spring in 2012, Center for Applied Policy Research, p. 2, at http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/ Detail/?lng=en&id=136306 [last visited 10 August 2013]. For a contrary argument see, Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East”, p. 75.
  • legitimacy as has been used to show that Iran can transcend the limits of sectarian boundaries.
  • “Hamas Reduces presence in Damascus”, The National, 25 December 2011.
  • Saudi Arabia presents its Wahhabi interpretation of Islam as a true form of Sunni Islam. See, Noorhaidi Hasan, “Saudi Expansion, the Salafi Campaign and Arabised Islam in Indonesia”, in Madawi Al-Rasheed (ed.), Kingdom Without Borders: Saudi Political, Religious and Media Frontiers, New York, Columbia University Press, 2008, p. 265.
  • For the principles and practices of Wahhabi conservativism see, Mohammed Ayoob and Hasan Kösebalaban, “Introduction: Unraveling the Myths”, in Mohamed Ayoob and Hasan Kösebalaban (eds.), Religion and Politics in Saudi Arabia: Wahhabism and the State, Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009, pp. 3-4.
  • For Saudi’s counter-revolutionary role in the Arab Spring see, Al-Rasheed, “Sectarianism as Counter-Revolution”; Mehran Kamrava, “The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution”, Orbis, Vol. 56, No. 1 (2012), pp. 96-104.
  • For the learning process in Saudi Arabia see, Steven Heydemann and Reinoud Leenders, “Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience: Regime Responses to the ‘Arab Awakening’”, Globalizations, Vol. 8, No. 5 (2011), pp. 647-653.
  • Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, “Repositioning the GCC States in the Changing Global Order”, Journal of Arabian Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2 (2011), pp. 231–247.
  • Abdul Khaleg Abdulla, “The Gulf Cooperation Council: Nature, Origin, and Process”, in Michael C. Hudson (ed.), Middle East Dilemma: The Politics and Economics of Arab Integration, London, I.B. Tauris, 1999, pp. 150-170.
  • David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Saudi Arabia’s Action in Bahrain Strains Ties With United States”, New York Times, 14 March 2011.
  • Vali Nasr, “Will The Saudis Kill the Arab Spring”, at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011- 05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html [last visited 12 December 2013].
  • Nawaf Obaid, “Amid the Arab Spring, A U.S.-Saudi Split”, The Washington Post, 16 May 2011.
  • Madawi Al-Rasheed, “Introduction: An assessment of Saudi Political, Religious and Media Expansion”, in Madawi Al-Rasheed (ed.), Kingdom Without Borders: Saudi Political, Religious and Media Frontiers, New York, Columbia University Press, 2008, pp.1-5, 21.
  • Bahgat Korany and Moataz A. Fattah, “Irreconcilable Role-Partners?: Saudi Foreign Policy between the Ulama and the US”, in Bahgat Korany and Ali E. Hillal Dessouki (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Arab States: The Challenge of Globalization, Cairo, The American University in Cairo Press, 2010, p. 365.
  • F. Gregory Gause III, “Official Wahhabism and the Sanctioning of Saudi-US Relations”, in Ayoob and Kösebalaban (eds.), Religion and Politics in Saudi Arabia, p. 135.
  • Arab Studies Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1-2 (Winter/Spring 2005); Kemal Kirişci, “Turkey’s
  • ‘Demonstrative Effect’ and The Transformation of the Middle East”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 13
  • Burhanettin Duran, “The Experience of Turkish Islamism: Between Transformation and Impoverishment”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1 (March 2010), pp. 5-22.
  • See, Nuh Yılmaz, “Change in Turkey Has Shown Another Way for Middle East”, The National, 2 February 2011; Telhami, “The 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll”.
  • See, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoğlu’s speech delivered at National Assembly on 26 April 2012, at http://www.tbmm.gov.tr/tutanak/donem24/yil2/ham/ b10001h.htm [last visited 15 June 2013]. For Turkey’s new Middle East policy see, Hasan Kösebalaban, “Turkey and the New Middle East: Between Liberalism and Realism”, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Autumn 2011), pp. 93-114.
  • See, Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar, Ortadoğu’da Türkiye Algısı 2011, Istanbul, TESEV, 2012.
  • Ali Balcı and Nebi Miş, “Turkey’s Role in the ‘Alliance of Civilizations’: A New Perspective in Turkish Foreign Policy?”, Turkish Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3 (September 2008), pp. 387-406.
  • Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, “Regional Leadership: Balancing off Costs and Dividends in the Foreign Policy of Egypt”, in Bahgat Korany and Ali E. Hillal Dessouki (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Arab States: The Challenge of Globalization, Cairo, The American University in Cairo Press, 2010, p. 170.
  • Mamoun Fandy, “Egypt: Could It Lead the Arab World?”, in Judith S. Yaphe (ed.), The Middle East in 2015: The Impact of Regional Trends on U.S. Strategic Planning, Washington, National Defense University Press, 2002, pp. 59-74.
  • Özden Zeynep Oktav, Basra Körfezinin Değişen Dinamikleri, Istanbul, Beta, 2011, p. 24; Bauer and Schiller, The Arab Spring in 2012, p. 2.
  • Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East”, p. 74.
  • For a pessimistic article regarding the impact of the Egyptian revolution on the political and strategic landscape in the Middle East in the short and medium term see, Mohammed Ayoob, “Beyond the Democratic Wave in the Arab World: The Middle East’s Turco-Persian Future”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 13, No. 2 (2011), pp. 57-70.
  • Springborg, “Whither the Arab Spring?”, p. 12.
  • Robert Springborg, “The Precarious Economics of Arab Springs”, Survival, Vol. 53, No. 6 (2011), p. 99.
  • Robert Springborg, “The Political Economy of the Arab Spring”, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 16, No. 3 (2011), p. 428; Geoffrey Aronson, “The Middle East Conflict After the Arab Spring: The Case of Palestine”, European View, Vol. 10, No. 2 (2011), p. 218.
  • Daniel Brumberg, “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2002), pp. 56-68; George Joffé, “The Arab Spring in North Africa: Origins and Prospects”, The Journal of North African Studies, Vol. 16, No. 4 (December 2011), p. 524.
  • Khalil Al-Anani, “Salafis Try Their Hand at Religious Politics”, Washington Post, 11 May 2013.
  • Nathan Brown, “Contention in Religion and State in Post-revolutionary Egypt”, Social Research, Vol. 79, No. 2 (Summer 2012), p. 538.
  • See, Raphael Lefevre, “A Falling-Out Among Brothers”, at http://carnegieendowment.org/ sada/2013/07/30/falling-out-among-brothers/ggtn [last visited 13 September 2013].
  • Khalil al-Anani, “Egypt: Reconciliation or Repression”, Al-Monitor, 30 August 2013.
  • Ahmed Morsy and Nathan J. Brown, “Egypt’s al-Azhar Steps Forward”, at http:// carnegieendowment.org/2013/11/07/egypt-s-al-azhar-steps-forward/gt0b# [last visited 13 September 2013].
  • For a critique of the US priorities in terms of democratisation in Egypt see, Shadi Hamid and Peter Mandaville, “A Coup Too Far: The Case For Reordering U.S. Priorities in Egypt”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, September 2013.
Year 2013, Volume: 18 Issue: 4, 139 - 170, 01.01.2013

Abstract

References

  • The authors are very grateful to Eric Hougland, Kemal İnat, Talip Küçükcan, Hasan Kösebalaban, Talha Köse and Ali Balcı for having taken the trouble to comment on the draft. Needless to say, the authors alone are responsible for any mistakes that may have remained.
  • Mohammed Ayoob, The Many Faces of Political Islam, Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 2008, p. 56.
  • Roger Owen, “The Arab ‘Demonstration’ Effect and the Revival of Arab Unity in the Arab Spring”, Contemporary Arab Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3 (2012), p. 374.
  • See, Nathan J. Brown et al., The Emerging Order in the Middle East, Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/24/ emerging-order-in-middle-east/awff# [last visited 12 October 2013]; Katerina Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East: Political Change and Geopolitical Implications”, International Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 1 (January 2012), p. 75.
  • Fred Dallmayr, “Radical Changes in the Muslim World: Turkey, Iran, Egypt”, Globalizations, Vol. 8, No. 5 (2011), p. 640.
  • Ayoob, The Many Faces of Political Islam, pp. 32-33.
  • See, Olivier Roy, “The Transformation of the Arab World”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), p. 11.
  • See, Michael Bauer and Thomas Schiller, The Arab Spring in 2012, Center for Applied Policy Research, p. 2, at http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/ Detail/?lng=en&id=136306 [last visited 10 August 2013]. For a contrary argument see, Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East”, p. 75.
  • legitimacy as has been used to show that Iran can transcend the limits of sectarian boundaries.
  • “Hamas Reduces presence in Damascus”, The National, 25 December 2011.
  • Saudi Arabia presents its Wahhabi interpretation of Islam as a true form of Sunni Islam. See, Noorhaidi Hasan, “Saudi Expansion, the Salafi Campaign and Arabised Islam in Indonesia”, in Madawi Al-Rasheed (ed.), Kingdom Without Borders: Saudi Political, Religious and Media Frontiers, New York, Columbia University Press, 2008, p. 265.
  • For the principles and practices of Wahhabi conservativism see, Mohammed Ayoob and Hasan Kösebalaban, “Introduction: Unraveling the Myths”, in Mohamed Ayoob and Hasan Kösebalaban (eds.), Religion and Politics in Saudi Arabia: Wahhabism and the State, Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009, pp. 3-4.
  • For Saudi’s counter-revolutionary role in the Arab Spring see, Al-Rasheed, “Sectarianism as Counter-Revolution”; Mehran Kamrava, “The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution”, Orbis, Vol. 56, No. 1 (2012), pp. 96-104.
  • For the learning process in Saudi Arabia see, Steven Heydemann and Reinoud Leenders, “Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience: Regime Responses to the ‘Arab Awakening’”, Globalizations, Vol. 8, No. 5 (2011), pp. 647-653.
  • Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, “Repositioning the GCC States in the Changing Global Order”, Journal of Arabian Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2 (2011), pp. 231–247.
  • Abdul Khaleg Abdulla, “The Gulf Cooperation Council: Nature, Origin, and Process”, in Michael C. Hudson (ed.), Middle East Dilemma: The Politics and Economics of Arab Integration, London, I.B. Tauris, 1999, pp. 150-170.
  • David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Saudi Arabia’s Action in Bahrain Strains Ties With United States”, New York Times, 14 March 2011.
  • Vali Nasr, “Will The Saudis Kill the Arab Spring”, at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011- 05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html [last visited 12 December 2013].
  • Nawaf Obaid, “Amid the Arab Spring, A U.S.-Saudi Split”, The Washington Post, 16 May 2011.
  • Madawi Al-Rasheed, “Introduction: An assessment of Saudi Political, Religious and Media Expansion”, in Madawi Al-Rasheed (ed.), Kingdom Without Borders: Saudi Political, Religious and Media Frontiers, New York, Columbia University Press, 2008, pp.1-5, 21.
  • Bahgat Korany and Moataz A. Fattah, “Irreconcilable Role-Partners?: Saudi Foreign Policy between the Ulama and the US”, in Bahgat Korany and Ali E. Hillal Dessouki (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Arab States: The Challenge of Globalization, Cairo, The American University in Cairo Press, 2010, p. 365.
  • F. Gregory Gause III, “Official Wahhabism and the Sanctioning of Saudi-US Relations”, in Ayoob and Kösebalaban (eds.), Religion and Politics in Saudi Arabia, p. 135.
  • Arab Studies Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1-2 (Winter/Spring 2005); Kemal Kirişci, “Turkey’s
  • ‘Demonstrative Effect’ and The Transformation of the Middle East”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 13
  • Burhanettin Duran, “The Experience of Turkish Islamism: Between Transformation and Impoverishment”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1 (March 2010), pp. 5-22.
  • See, Nuh Yılmaz, “Change in Turkey Has Shown Another Way for Middle East”, The National, 2 February 2011; Telhami, “The 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll”.
  • See, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoğlu’s speech delivered at National Assembly on 26 April 2012, at http://www.tbmm.gov.tr/tutanak/donem24/yil2/ham/ b10001h.htm [last visited 15 June 2013]. For Turkey’s new Middle East policy see, Hasan Kösebalaban, “Turkey and the New Middle East: Between Liberalism and Realism”, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Autumn 2011), pp. 93-114.
  • See, Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar, Ortadoğu’da Türkiye Algısı 2011, Istanbul, TESEV, 2012.
  • Ali Balcı and Nebi Miş, “Turkey’s Role in the ‘Alliance of Civilizations’: A New Perspective in Turkish Foreign Policy?”, Turkish Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3 (September 2008), pp. 387-406.
  • Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, “Regional Leadership: Balancing off Costs and Dividends in the Foreign Policy of Egypt”, in Bahgat Korany and Ali E. Hillal Dessouki (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Arab States: The Challenge of Globalization, Cairo, The American University in Cairo Press, 2010, p. 170.
  • Mamoun Fandy, “Egypt: Could It Lead the Arab World?”, in Judith S. Yaphe (ed.), The Middle East in 2015: The Impact of Regional Trends on U.S. Strategic Planning, Washington, National Defense University Press, 2002, pp. 59-74.
  • Özden Zeynep Oktav, Basra Körfezinin Değişen Dinamikleri, Istanbul, Beta, 2011, p. 24; Bauer and Schiller, The Arab Spring in 2012, p. 2.
  • Dalacoura, “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East”, p. 74.
  • For a pessimistic article regarding the impact of the Egyptian revolution on the political and strategic landscape in the Middle East in the short and medium term see, Mohammed Ayoob, “Beyond the Democratic Wave in the Arab World: The Middle East’s Turco-Persian Future”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 13, No. 2 (2011), pp. 57-70.
  • Springborg, “Whither the Arab Spring?”, p. 12.
  • Robert Springborg, “The Precarious Economics of Arab Springs”, Survival, Vol. 53, No. 6 (2011), p. 99.
  • Robert Springborg, “The Political Economy of the Arab Spring”, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 16, No. 3 (2011), p. 428; Geoffrey Aronson, “The Middle East Conflict After the Arab Spring: The Case of Palestine”, European View, Vol. 10, No. 2 (2011), p. 218.
  • Daniel Brumberg, “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2002), pp. 56-68; George Joffé, “The Arab Spring in North Africa: Origins and Prospects”, The Journal of North African Studies, Vol. 16, No. 4 (December 2011), p. 524.
  • Khalil Al-Anani, “Salafis Try Their Hand at Religious Politics”, Washington Post, 11 May 2013.
  • Nathan Brown, “Contention in Religion and State in Post-revolutionary Egypt”, Social Research, Vol. 79, No. 2 (Summer 2012), p. 538.
  • See, Raphael Lefevre, “A Falling-Out Among Brothers”, at http://carnegieendowment.org/ sada/2013/07/30/falling-out-among-brothers/ggtn [last visited 13 September 2013].
  • Khalil al-Anani, “Egypt: Reconciliation or Repression”, Al-Monitor, 30 August 2013.
  • Ahmed Morsy and Nathan J. Brown, “Egypt’s al-Azhar Steps Forward”, at http:// carnegieendowment.org/2013/11/07/egypt-s-al-azhar-steps-forward/gt0b# [last visited 13 September 2013].
  • For a critique of the US priorities in terms of democratisation in Egypt see, Shadi Hamid and Peter Mandaville, “A Coup Too Far: The Case For Reordering U.S. Priorities in Egypt”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, September 2013.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Burhanettin Duran This is me

Nuh Yılmaz This is me

Publication Date January 1, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 18 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Duran, B., & Yılmaz, N. (2013). Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, 18(4), 139-170.
AMA Duran B, Yılmaz N. Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring. PERCEPTIONS. January 2013;18(4):139-170.
Chicago Duran, Burhanettin, and Nuh Yılmaz. “Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power Following the Arab Spring”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 18, no. 4 (January 2013): 139-70.
EndNote Duran B, Yılmaz N (January 1, 2013) Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 18 4 139–170.
IEEE B. Duran and N. Yılmaz, “Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring”, PERCEPTIONS, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 139–170, 2013.
ISNAD Duran, Burhanettin - Yılmaz, Nuh. “Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power Following the Arab Spring”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 18/4 (January 2013), 139-170.
JAMA Duran B, Yılmaz N. Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring. PERCEPTIONS. 2013;18:139–170.
MLA Duran, Burhanettin and Nuh Yılmaz. “Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power Following the Arab Spring”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, vol. 18, no. 4, 2013, pp. 139-70.
Vancouver Duran B, Yılmaz N. Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring. PERCEPTIONS. 2013;18(4):139-70.