WHY WAR IS GOING ON IN AFGHANISTAN: THE AFGHAN CRISIS IN PERSPECTIVE

Year 2000, Volume: 5 Issue: 4, 0 - 0, 01.12.2000

Olivier Roy

Abstract

Any political solution to the present conflict in Afghanistan has thus to take into account not only the fighting factions inside Afghanistan presently limited to the dominant Taliban and to commander Ahmad Shah Masood, who is their only real military challenge , but also the interests of the neighbouring countries. These interests are expressed sometimes in terms of assets for Pakistan and Turkmenistan, who see in Afghanistan an opportunity to extend their regional influence and sometimes in terms of liabilities for Iran and Uzbekistan, who consider the country a source of problems and not as part of their sphere of influence , while Russia and India consider Afghanistan in a broader picture. For the Russians the war is a good opportunity to keep their influence in Tajikistan, while for India it is one of the few potential leverages it can use to put pressure on Pakistan in retaliation for Islamabad's growing use of the Kashmir issue. Small Tajikistan, on the other hand, is increasingly embroiled in the Afghan issue, for good or bad reasons including ethnic solidarity and drug trafficking .